Calling all the math geeks on the board...

[Capt. Tuttle]

I am a big believer in averages. For instance, when I played fantasy baseball, if Tony Gwynn ( ye I am that old) was hitting. 300 at the All Star break, I would try to get him, because he was gonna hit about. 380 the rest of the way to get to. 340 or more.
My question is do you think think that today was an anomaly, or is it a start of a climb back to the norm. Are we gonna shoot lights out for a while.

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[jdubs30]

We got some great looks, but UConn has struggled with perimeter D most of the year. Obviously we're not gonna hit 59% of our shots very often, but this game should build confidence. The only guy who didn't put up great shooting numbers today was Kris, and he was on fire last game.

 

[rrlbees]

I am a big believer in averages. For instance, when I played fantasy baseball, if Tony Gwynn ( ye I am that old) was hitting. 300 at the All Star break, I would try to get him, because he was gonna hit about. 380 the rest of the way to get to. 340 or more.
My question is do you think think that today was an anomaly, or is it a start of a climb back to the norm. Are we gonna shoot lights out for a while.

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I don't know how we will shoot the rest of the way but we aren't a 9/15 on 3's type of team nor is Scoop a 4/4 type. BUT as a team we are a better shooting team than we had shown the several prior games.

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[cliftonparksufan]

I am a big believer in averages. For instance, when I played fantasy baseball, if Tony Gwynn ( ye I am that old) was hitting. 300 at the All Star break, I would try to get him, because he was gonna hit about. 380 the rest of the way to get to. 340 or more.
My question is do you think think that today was an anomaly, or is it a start of a climb back to the norm. Are we gonna shoot lights out for a while.

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Well considering that Louisville is holding their opponents to 37% FG % and 33% from the 3pt line and 67.3 ppg, I would say the odds are against what we did today.

 

[bevosu]

I always look at these good streaks as streaks, or an anomaly.

The board yin yangs depending on the last game. It's not just the board, but local WAER announcers always think we're bad after a bad game and have turned the corner and are on our way after a good game. Neither usually lasts.

 

[orangenauburn]

in the law of averages we are due a couple more good games -- expect 1/2 our remaining games to be like today

 

[SoBeCuse]

Well considering that Louisville is holding their opponents to 37% FG % and 33% from the 3pt line and 67.3 ppg, I would say the odds are against what we did today.

Yeah, could be a rough night at the Yum.

 

[SWC75]

We got some great looks, but UConn has struggled with perimeter D most of the year. Obviously we're not gonna hit 59% of our shots very often, but this game should build confidence. The only guy who didn't put up great shooting numbers today was Kris, and he was on fire last game.

UCONN was the #1 defesnive field goal percetnage in the conference. Will our improved offesne continue/ It won't be like this eveyr game but I think we pulled out of an offesnive slump today. We looked more like a potential national champion.

 

[OrlandoCuse]

The power of mathematical statistics:

Here is a post I made in a thread after the WVU game.

Bottomline, don't expect us to shoot 60% again, but it was part of an upward trend that I predicted a couple of weeks ago.

 

[44cuse]

I am a big believer in averages. For instance, when I played fantasy baseball, if Tony Gwynn ( ye I am that old) was hitting. 300 at the All Star break, I would try to get him, because he was gonna hit about. 380 the rest of the way to get to. 340 or more.
My question is do you think think that today was an anomaly, or is it a start of a climb back to the norm. Are we gonna shoot lights out for a while.

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I'm with you on stats and percentages. So that leads me to believe that, unfortunately, we won't likely see this performance again. As a team we are likely closer to what we have been that what we were today.

44cuse

 

[SWC75]

I'm with you on stats and percentages. So that leads me to believe that, unfortunately, we won't likely see this performance again. As a team we are likely closer to what we have been that what we were today.

44cuse

Split the difference and we'll be fine.

 

[PeteCalvin]

LMAO. I read the thread title so fast I thought it said 'meth geeks'. I was like 'whoa, this place is really turning a sad corner'.

 

[shermstheman]

I am a big believer in averages. For instance, when I played fantasy baseball, if Tony Gwynn ( ye I am that old) was hitting. 300 at the All Star break, I would try to get him, because he was gonna hit about. 380 the rest of the way to get to. 340 or more.
My question is do you think think that today was an anomaly, or is it a start of a climb back to the norm. Are we gonna shoot lights out for a while.

Don't feel bad. They didn't have fantasy baseball when I was weened on the Mick. If they did, I'd have taken him if he was hitting .400 and knew he'd trend down. But, I do think we're on the upswing to being an average to slightly above average team with the 3.

 

[44cuse]

Split the difference and we'll be fine.

That was kind of my point...not sure if splitting the difference is possible. That said, I would absolutely take it.

44cuse

 

[SWC75]

That was kind of my point...not sure if splitting the difference is possible. That said, I would absolutely take it.

44cuse

We have been shooting poorl;y for a month. We can do better than that. We may not go 10 for 16 again but we can be bette3r than we have- and we've been winning, (with one exception) anyway. decent shooting could have turned those into 10-15 point wins instead of 5-10 point wins.

 

[rrlbees]

UCONN was the #1 defesnive field goal percetnage in the conference. Will our improved offesne continue/ It won't be like this eveyr game but I think we pulled out of an offesnive slump today. We looked more like a potential national champion.

Actually they were 4th in BE games only and 2nd for all games. They are also last in 3pt% defense. So what that says is a team struggles to score inside on them but have a field day outside which is pretty much what we did so it played to form.

 

[44cuse]

We have been shooting poorl;y for a month. We can do better than that. We may not go 10 for 16 again but we can be bette3r than we have- and we've been winning, (with one exception) anyway. decent shooting could have turned those into 10-15 point wins instead of 5-10 point wins.

I don't disagree with any of that. But I'm not sure I really see this team ever shooting better than 35%-37%.

44cuse

 

[SWC75]

Actually they were 4th in BE games only and 2nd for all games. They are also last in 3pt% defense. So what that says is a team struggles to score inside on them but have a field day outside which is pretty much what we did so it played to form.

So much for relying on Matt Park for stats.

 

[SWC75]

I don't disagree with any of that. But I'm not sure I really see this team ever shooting better than 35%-37%.

44cuse

If they shoot 35-37% from three for the rest of the eyar, I'll take that. In the previous 8 games we'd been 44 for 156, (28%). If we'd shot 37%, that would have been 58 for 156. Another 14 three pointers in those games would have made things a bit easier.

 

[44cuse]

If they shoot 35-37% from three for the rest of the eyar, I'll take that. In the previous 8 games we'd been 44 for 156, (28%). If we'd shot 37%, that would have been 58 for 156. Another 14 three pointers in those games would have made things a bit easier.

Hence my original point.

Today we shot 62%. Season average is 34%. So we may very well be getting better, but the ceiling (IMO) is not halfway between today's game and the season average.

Would be awesome to see hold at 40%.

44cuse

 

[suloyalfan]

I am a big believer in averages. For instance, when I played fantasy baseball, if Tony Gwynn ( ye I am that old) was hitting. 300 at the All Star break, I would try to get him, because he was gonna hit about. 380 the rest of the way to get to. 340 or more.

My question is do you think think that today was an anomaly, or is it a start of a climb back to the norm. Are we gonna shoot lights out for a while.

Sent from my Vortex using Tapatalk

Instead of watching short term trends on any statistic, I like sites like www.kenpom.com because it provides good indication of performance on defense and offense for each team corrected back to an expected performance versus an average team on a neutral floor over the course of the season. The Adjusted Offensive and Adjusted Defensive numbers are based on points per 100 possessions.

Currently, there are only 6 teams in the country with Adjusted Offense AND Adjusted Defensive ranks both in the Top 20.
They are Kentucky, Syracuse, Kansas, North Carolina, Ohio State, and Michigan State. Out of these teams, Kentucky has the best overall ratings with the #3 Adjusted Offense and the #6 Adjusted Defense. In statistical terms for the season played out to this point, these are the "Contenders" for a NC.

Everyone else could be labeled as some degree of a "Pretender". For example, Missouri has the #1 Adjusted Offense but is ranked #51 in Adjusted Defense. That means when they run up against one of the aforementioned teams in the "Contender" list, they would likely be a statistical underdog even with the #1 ranked Adjusted Offense because their Adjusted Defense is not strong enough. Basically, they would be expected to give up more points than they could score over the course of the game against an exceptional team. Others on the "Pretender" list... Florida (#5 AdjO, #110 AdjD), Duke (#4 AdjO, #83 AdjD), Indiana (#2 AdjO, #74 AdjD), and Georgetown (#55 AdjO, #5 AdjD).

Obviously, this is statistics and not prognostication... for example, "Pretender" Duke just beat "Contender" North Carolina earlier this week, albeit in a game that some would say North Carolina gave away...

 

[SWC75]

Instead of watching short term trends on any statistic, I like sites like www.kenpom.com because it provides good indication of performance on defense and offense for each team corrected back to an expected performance versus an average team on a neutral floor over the course of the season. The Adjusted Offensive and Adjusted Defensive numbers are based on points per 100 possessions.

Currently, there are only 6 teams in the country with Adjusted Offense AND Adjusted Defensive ranks both in the Top 20.
They are Kentucky, Syracuse, Kansas, North Carolina, Ohio State, and Michigan State. Out of these teams, Kentucky has the best overall ratings with the #3 Adjusted Offense and the #6 Adjusted Defense. In statistical terms for the season played out to this point, these are the "Contenders" for a NC.

Everyone else could be labeled as some degree of a "Pretender". For example, Missouri has the #1 Adjusted Offense but is ranked #51 in Adjusted Defense. That means when they run up against one of the aforementioned teams in the "Contender" list, they would likely be a statistical underdog even with the #1 ranked Adjusted Offense because their Adjusted Defense is not strong enough. Basically, they would be expected to give up more points than they could score over the course of the game against an exceptional team. Others on the "Pretender" list... Florida (#5 AdjO, #110 AdjD), Duke (#4 AdjO, #83 AdjD), Indiana (#2 AdjO, #74 AdjD), and Georgetown (#55 AdjO, #5 AdjD).

Obviously, this is statistics and not prognostication... for example, "Pretender" Duke just beat "Contender" North Carolina earlier this week, albeit in a game that some would say North Carolina gave away...

Calipari's worst Kentucky team, a UCONN team that was 9th place in the Big East, Butler and Virginia Commonwealth made the Final Four last year.

 

[Millhouse]

I am a big believer in averages. For instance, when I played fantasy baseball, if Tony Gwynn ( ye I am that old) was hitting. 300 at the All Star break, I would try to get him, because he was gonna hit about. 380 the rest of the way to get to. 340 or more.
My question is do you think think that today was an anomaly, or is it a start of a climb back to the norm. Are we gonna shoot lights out for a while.

Sent from my Vortex using Tapatalk

that's not how it works

if you flip heads 5 times in a row, that doesn't mean you're going to get heads any more often after that. if tony gwynn has a bad start to the year or a good start to the year, he'll regress back to his normal second half performance.

 

[Cusefannotindc]

Instead of watching short term trends on any statistic, I like sites like www.kenpom.com because it provides good indication of performance on defense and offense for each team corrected back to an expected performance versus an average team on a neutral floor over the course of the season. The Adjusted Offensive and Adjusted Defensive numbers are based on points per 100 possessions.

Despite being an adherent to Pomeroy, I would like to see an adjustment made to the "average team" assumption. An "average team" would have OE and DE of 100.7, using a nearest neighbor match, the closest to the "average team" is Texas San Antonio. A close second is George Washington, so basically the PYTH score compares the likelihood of beating GW.

 

[suloyalfan]

Calipari's worst Kentucky team, a UCONN team that was 9th place in the Big East, Butler and Virginia Commonwealth made the Final Four last year.

Yes, but that was far from normal. I have pulled the data for Kenpom vs. performance in the NCAA Tourney... I will post it later once I analyze it...