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[QUOTE="tep624, post: 5116351, member: 430"]
For all intents and purposes, offers and camp performances end up dictating the top 250 kids so the sites have a lot less leeway to prop kids up or artificially hold them down from that tier.  Does it happen?  Definitely, but at the end of the day if you looked at the On3 / 247 / ESPN / Rivals top 250/300 lists, you generally land around 350 kids in total that are on at least one of the lists.

Are they all going to hit?  Absolutely not.  Davis and CDRW as you mentioned are two that clearly didn’t.  But the yield rate on those kids if I had to guess on at least becoming a 1st teamer during their career has to be in the 60-70% range.  For a long time we sorta talked ourselves into here that we can be Boise St part 2 and have a consistently successful program ignoring the top tier of recruits.  I myself bought into that for a long time and it’s just erroneous.  Boise St was a unicorn.

Now if NIL dollars are being saved for flip season and portal season, and our strategy all things equal is to target players in the 5 hour radius with similar measurables to the top 250/300 players we’ve targeted, then that’s fine.  I actually like that strategy to some degree.  But having all those kids visit and actively recruiting them would seem to dictate otherwise.
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