Comparing Week 6 to Last Season

[TheCusian]

It's halfway through the season, there is a good chunk of data in - so the stats are interesting to look at. Using Connelly's SP+ and only teams we've played or will play in both 2018 and 2019. 2018 is in paranthesis, arrows denote 2019 improvement/regression.

SP+ Overall Ranking	SP+ Offensive Ranking	SP+ Defensive Ranking	SP+ Special Teams Ranking
↓ 8 Clemson (3)	↓ 15 (5)	↓ 10 (3)	↑ 64 (95)
↑ 45 Florida State (71)	↑ 22 (97)	↓ 78 (37)	↑ 74 (96)
↑ 51 Wake Forest (57)	↑ 43 (48)	↓ 71 (64)	↓ 49 (42)
↑ 57 Pittsburgh (61)	↓ 112 (71)	↑ 15 (53)	↓ 111 (17)
↓ 58 NC State (35)	↓ 81 (29)	↑ 43 (54)	↑ 46 (65)
↑ 62 Louisville (98)	↑ 35 (102)	↑ 86 (99)	↓ 50 (16)
↓ 65 Syracuse (40)	↓ 71 (44)	↓ 65 (60)	↓ 3 (2)
↓ 74 Boston College (63)	↑ 31 (88)	↓ 102 (32)	↓ 89 (48)
↑ 87 Western Michigan (104)	↑ 58 (60)	↑ 104 (112)	↓ 104 (92)

 

[TheCusian]

Some thoughts:

1. It's obvious that if you're rebuilding, talent already in the program will help a lot. FSU and Louisville are both not anywhere near peak efficiency on offense and have rebuilt pretty quickly. The other element at work is good schemes/OC's.

2. Wake Forest is basically the same team they were last year that has played a pretty ho-hum schedule so far. They might be due for a tumble soon. Bowl-bound, regardless. But that D is very questionable.

3. If BC had last year's D with this year's O - they'd probably be a clear #2 in our division. Will be interesting to see what happens to them without Brown at QB.

4. I still think a jump on O is probable for us. If we get modest improvement on D and on the OL - we're a 7-8 win team. If things get worse? Not thinking about it.

 

[PhatOrange]

Some thoughts:

1. It's obvious that if you're rebuilding, talent already in the program will help a lot. FSU and Louisville are both not anywhere near peak efficiency on offense and have rebuilt pretty quickly. The other element at work is good schemes/OC's.

2. Wake Forest is basically the same team they were last year that has played a pretty ho-hum schedule so far. They might be due for a tumble soon. Bowl-bound, regardless. But that D is very questionable.

3. If BC had last year's D with this year's O - they'd probably be a clear #2 in our division. Will be interesting to see what happens to them without Brown at QB.

4. I still think a jump on O is probable for us. If we get modest improvement on D and on the OL - we're a 7-8 win team. If things get worse? Not thinking about it.

Taggart also made a great move in his first offseason. 1. He went out and hired two fantastic offensive coaches. Besides Briles he brought in Baylor's long time OC/Run Game Coordinator and Offensive Line coach Randy Clements. Beside Coordinator duties at Baylor Clements coached their offensive line for 8 years. Home run hires on that side of the ball for FSU. They two of them have been working together for 7 years.

Babers needs to make a similar move imo along the OL. Clements was the guy I wanted.

 

[TheCusian]

It's halfway through the season, there is a good chunk of data in - so the stats are interesting to look at. Using Connelly's SP+ and only teams we've played or will play in both 2018 and 2019. 2018 is in paranthesis, arrows denote 2019 improvement/regression.

SP+ Overall Ranking	SP+ Offensive Ranking	SP+ Defensive Ranking	SP+ Special Teams Ranking
↓ 8 Clemson (3)	↓ 15 (5)	↓ 10 (3)	↑ 64 (95)
↑ 45 Florida State (71)	↑ 22 (97)	↓ 78 (37)	↑ 74 (96)
↑ 51 Wake Forest (57)	↑ 43 (48)	↓ 71 (64)	↓ 49 (42)
↑ 57 Pittsburgh (61)	↓ 112 (71)	↑ 15 (53)	↓ 111 (17)
↓ 58 NC State (35)	↓ 81 (29)	↑ 43 (54)	↑ 46 (65)
↑ 62 Louisville (98)	↑ 35 (102)	↑ 86 (99)	↓ 50 (16)
↓ 65 Syracuse (40)	↓ 71 (44)	↓ 65 (60)	↓ 3 (2)
↓ 74 Boston College (63)	↑ 31 (88)	↓ 102 (32)	↓ 89 (48)
↑ 87 Western Michigan (104)	↑ 58 (60)	↑ 104 (112)	↓ 104 (92)

Just want to bump this - It looked exactly like these number suggest vs NC State. It will be interesting to see if our numbers get better on D.

Based on Pitt's numbers, it might be a replica type game only to a higher degree. They are worse on O than NC State and better on D.