Conference Performance Tracker (up to January 1)

[jncuse]

Perhaps the largest dictator of seeding (and perhaps getting in) come tourney time is how conferences play prior to January 1st. A conference does well prior to January and it will result in many top 50 opportunities. A conference does poorly prior to January and it will have few top 50 opportunities. It doesn't matter if the conference as a whole is playing better in February -- it will not really change the numbers,

Just think of the Pac 12 the last 2 years. It had great pre conference numbers in 2015-2016 and had seven over seeded teams in the tourney and a couple just misses It had a poor pre-conference season in 2016-2017 and basically nobody made the tourney except the top teams. Teams won the same 108 games. One year a 9-9 team in the Pac-12 is a shoe in, and the next year they are not even in the NIT.

The ACC had strong pre-conference numbers last year and it resulted in many teams getting in. And even those that didn't lingered on the bubble for a while despite poor conference records.

This impacts top teams, the good teams, and then the bubble teams. So for Syracuse, whether we will be a bubble team or not, the ACC performance is important. It's still very early, but over the next two weeks as we get into tournaments things will really start to move.

And whether the committee uses the RPI, KenPom, Sagarin or some other blended metric, the impact of pre-conference play will be the same.

While the NCAA is saying it looking at other measuring systems just as much as RPI to look at teams individually, they still have to define the metric that will be used to determine what is a top 25, what is a top 50, what is a top 100 win.

 

[jncuse]

Early concern for the ACC is that it will have more duds drag down things this year than last year when it only had one really bad team.

 

[20Plus]

I don't think wake will be as bad as they're looking and I think Pittsburgh is a real dud

 

[longtimefan]

Perhaps the largest dictator of seeding (and perhaps getting in) come tourney time is how conferences play prior to January 1st. A conference does well prior to January and it will result in many top 50 opportunities. A conference does poorly prior to January and it will have few top 50 opportunities. It doesn't matter if the conference as a whole is playing better in February -- it will not really change the numbers,

Just think of the Pac 12 the last 2 years. It had great pre conference numbers in 2015-2016 and had seven over seeded teams in the tourney and a couple just misses It had a poor pre-conference season in 2016-2017 and basically nobody made the tourney except the top teams. Teams won the same 108 games. One year a 9-9 team in the Pac-12 is a shoe in, and the next year they are not even in the NIT.

The ACC had strong pre-conference numbers last year and it resulted in many teams getting in. And even those that didn't lingered on the bubble for a while despite poor conference records.

This impacts top teams, the good teams, and then the bubble teams. So for Syracuse, whether we will be a bubble team or not, the ACC performance is important. It's still very early, but over the next two weeks as we get into tournaments things will really start to move.

And whether the committee uses the RPI, KenPom, Sagarin or some other blended metric, the impact of pre-conference play will be the same.

While the NCAA is saying it looking at other measuring systems just as much as RPI to look at teams individually, they still have to define the metric that will be used to determine what is a top 25, what is a top 50, what is a top 100 win.

Good wins for NCSt and ND. UVA's thumping of Vandy was positive, too.

 

[obliterata]

Pac12 went 2-4 today, they're in trouble already.

 

[orange79]

Good wins for NCSt and ND. UVA's thumping of Vandy was positive, too.

NC St lost to No Iowa

Beat AZ, turn around and lose to UNI

 

[Trueblue25]

NC St lost to No Iowa

Beat AZ, turn around and lose to UNI

Hah love it. That a girl, pack.

 

[orange79]

NC St lost to No Iowa

Beat AZ, turn around and lose to UNI

And then loses to Tennessee

 

[jncuse]

Where are conferences tracking right now?

Using RPIForecast, I looked at how many teams each conference had in the projected year end top 50. Obviously the conferences that are doing best right now, will benefit the most from beating up on each other in January and February so it could be different teams but the mix will generally hold.

RPI Forecast

Teams Ranked by % of Teams

Top 50
ACC - 10 (67%)
Big 12 - 6 (60%)
Big East - 6 (60%)
SEC - 7 (50%)
P12 - 4 (33%)
American - 4 (33%)
Big 10 - 4 (29%)

Top 25 (Elite)
ACC - 6 (40%)
SEC - 5 (36%)
Big 12 - 3 (30%)
Big East - 3 (30%)
American - 2 (17%)
Big Ten - 2 (14%)
WCC - 1 (10%)
MWC - 1 (9%)
Pac 12 - 1 (8%)
A-10 - 1 (7%)

Top 75 (Depth Measure, Increased Ability for quality road wins)
B12 - 8 (80%)
SEC - 10 (71%)
BE - 7 (70%)
ACC - 10 (67%)
P12 - 6 (50%)
American - 6 (50%)
B10 - 6 (42%)

Below 100 (Bad Teams)
B12 - 0 (0%)
BE - 2 (20%)
ACC - 4 (27%)
SEC - 4 (29%)
P12 - 5 (42%)
American - 5 (42%)
B10 - 6 (42%)

 

[jncuse]

Observations based on the above, We are now about halfway through non conference play, so while there is time to change, I could also argue that a lot of damage has been done by some leagues that will be hard to undo.

There is a clear dividing line between the top 4 and next 3 conferences,

• There are a clear 4 top conferences forming (ACC, Big 12, Big East, SEC).
• There are a clear next 3 conferences (Pac 12, B-10, American)

In terms of the top 4 conferneces

• I would go with the ACC as the best given there highest %'s in elite and also having more teams in general. However the ACC does have stinkers that a conference like the B12 may not have.
• This is the best the SEC has been in a while. It's always among the worst of the P5/P5+BE, but this year it is clearly not. Quite a bit of young talent has accumulated in the SEC beyond Kentucky.
• I don't think the B12 is gaming the RPI, but it always plays out quite well for them. It used to always have one clear cellar dweller but Jamie Dixon has done a very good job with TCU (way to go Pitt)
• I think the Big East has proven that is a basketball power at this point, Not at the ACC level, but certainly comfortably in the middle of the P5+BE year in and year out.
• These are 6 t0 9 bid league teams (maybe even 10 in the ACC, given that two other P5 conferences stink below)

In terms of the next 3 conferences;

• I included the American because they are basically on par group by group with the Big10 and the Pac 12. The American is doing OK, but that shows how terrible the Rose Bowl conferences are.
• These are 3 to 4 bid conference with maybe 5 if things work out perfectly.
• People here say the B10 is bad as usual. But they are never this bad. Usually the metrics say they are still fairly good (in the top 4 group) even when they look suspect. But now what we see is lining up with the metrics.