Conference Watch

[Cusefan0307]

Those clowns being so bad really hurts our sos, hopefully Sc and Monmouth can be halfway decent.

We go to Wisconsin as well. I don't worry about OOC RPI as much anymore. It hasn't hurt us since 2007.

 

[Briancuse]

We go to Wisconsin as well. I don't worry about OOC RPI as much anymore. It hasn't hurt us since 2007.

That game will be a big help, but outside of that our schedule isn't the best, thanks to Uconn and Gtown.

 

[SUMBA]

We go to Wisconsin as well. I don't worry about OOC RPI as much anymore. It hasn't hurt us since 2007.

"Hurt us" is relative. Look at the OOC SOS for the ACC teams at the top of the projected RPI table. The lowest OOC SOS is UVA at 35 while ours is 72. While the teams above us would have slightly better won lost records at the top of the conference, our SOS keeps us at RPI 15 rather than top 10. This could mean the difference between a 2-3 seed and a 4-5 seed. Just because it doesn't keep us out of the tourney does not mean that it does not "hurt us."

 

[jncuse]

I don't think anyone thought Georgetown and UConn would be this bad. We play enough RPI top 50 teams in the conference anyway. We aren't going to be anywhere close to the bubble IMO, so all this talk about RPI is just talk. It's not anywhere close to being as important of a metric as it used to be anyway.

I tend to agree with the point that schedule is working out worse than expected. I expected the move to the ACC which forced more rivalry games in the OOC part would pay more dividends. I think it will in some years. This year it will not.

 

[Cusefan0307]

"Hurt us" is relative. Look at the OOC SOS for the ACC teams at the top of the projected RPI table. The lowest OOC SOS is UVA at 35 while ours is 72. While the teams above us would have slightly better won lost records at the top of the conference, our SOS keeps us at RPI 15 rather than top 10. This could mean the difference between a 2-3 seed and a 4-5 seed. Just because it doesn't keep us out of the tourney does not mean that it does not "hurt us."

I don't disagree with anything you said, but if we beat Louisville, Duke, and UVA in the dome we will be closer to a 2-3, than a 4-5. I guess my point is with the type of talent we have I don't worry about the schedule. Win those three games and you get yourself a protected seed in the east region.

 

[SoBeCuse]

And Louisvilke

I think they could occasionally beat us, Duke, UL, UNC, etc., but would regularly take out the Wakes/GTechs/VTechs. Even Bilas said this the other day.

 

[Hoo's That]

We could improve our RPI dramatically by not playing absolute dogs (and RPI killers) like Cornell #322 and Colgate #235 and replacing them with teams in the #100-#125 area. Or at least get one of them off the schedule.

If you stop playing them, how will you prove to everyone SU is the best team in CNY?

 

[jncuse]

The ACC continues to do well, going 5-1 tonight against the Big Ten, and winning the challenge by a score of 9-5. The table below is the live conference RPI.

In terms of projected Conference RPI, these were the standings. These are a day behind on rpiforecast.com. I suspect the ACC will be number 1 in projected RPI tomorrow.

This may be relevant to Syracuse as we right now we are not certain if we are comfortably above a bubble level team. So here are the current projected RPI by record entering the ACC tournament:

21-10, RPI 43
20-11, RPI 52
19-12, RPI 69

I think we have enough date in to now make my first projected win target.


Last year I was fairly confident with the 19 win mark most of the year because it included quality neutral wins against Texas A&M and UConn. I became even more confident in the 19 win target after beating Duke. We had the quality win portfolio to overcome a 19-12 record entering the ACC tourney with an RPI in the mid 60's.

This year we will certainly not have the quality OOC win profile. So I don't think 19-12 and RPI of 69 would be enough. So while last year I set the fairly good chance (but certainly not 100%) win target at 19-12, this year I am setting my early estimate for fairly decent chance at 20-11. 9-9 record in the ACC certainly has to give us some quality wins.

Of course none of those numbers include the conference tourney which could certainly influence things. Although we learned from last year that an additional loss against a tourney level team (vs. Pitt) is not going to kill you. Of course ESPN wanted to sell that narrative, but it was clearly not the case. If it had been a loss against a non tourney team it could have been a different story.

Let's hope we go at 10-8 or much better in the ACC so we don't even have to think about this.

 

[jncuse]

Current Standings as of today

Projected RPI Standings

Observations
1. The Big 12 has had a nice recent run - expect them to get at least 6 of their 10 teams in the tourney again. They have benefited from the rise of Texas Tech and TCU this year.
2. ACC is one of the top conferences again which will help Syracuse. I was hoping they would be a little more dominant however,
3. Pac 12 has taken a real step back
4. The AAC has stabilized and is probably going to be a 3-4 bid conference.
5. A-10 is a little down from prior years, and the MVC and the MWC are looking like potential one bid conferences. This should help Syracuse on the bubble.

 

[NineOneSeven]

Current Standings as of today

View attachment 84260

Projected RPI Standings

View attachment 84261

Observations
1. The Big 12 has had a nice recent run - expect them to get at least 6 of their 10 teams in the tourney again. They have benefited from the rise of Texas Tech and TCU this year.
2. ACC is one of the top conferences again which will help Syracuse. I was hoping they would be a little more dominant however,
3. Pac 12 has taken a real step back
4. The AAC has stabilized and is probably going to be a 3-4 bid conference.
5. A-10 is a little down from prior years, and the MVC and the MWC are looking like potential one bid conferences. This should help Syracuse on the bubble.

Amazing how well the big east is doing with all the new teams compared to the good ole days

 

[jncuse]

Amazing how well the big east is doing with all the new teams compared to the good ole days

They made outstanding selections when they expanded. Hit triples or homeruns with all of Butler, Creighton and Xavier. They are arguably 3 of the top 4 programs in the Big East along with Villanova.