Crystal Ball

[SWC75]

At least that's what the guy who sold it to me said it was:

Everyone is speculating on how we will do in January and February, considering that we stumbled to an 8-5 record in Novembers and December. The assumption is that the level of completion is going to be so much higher that we will wind up with a very poor record, the winning streak will be broken and we won’t see ‘Syracuse’ on any march brackets. The alternative view is that this was possibly the strongest November and December schedule that we’ve had and that the ACC is down so maybe there isn’t that great a difference. We may be able to continue muddling through and still secure the streak and dance in March.

I decided to look at the Sagarin ratings, not because he’s the best but because he rates everybody and I’m just trying to get a glimpse of what might happen. Here is a breakdown of this year’s schedule:
College Basketball Ratings Page

NOVEMBER & DECEMBER
Virginia is currently ranked #42.
Colgate is #148
Seattle is #292
Cornell is #293
Bucknell is #252, (They are usually a strong mid-major but are just 4-9 this year.)
Oklahoma State is #47
Penn State is #19
Iowa is #16
Georgia Tech is #94
Georgetown is #36
Oakland is #192
North Florida is #180
Niagara is #291

JANUARY & FEBRUARY (plus MARCH)
Notre Dame is #69
Virginia Tech is #62
Virginia is #42
Boston College is #123
Virginia Tech is #62
Notre Dame is #69
Pittsburgh is #64
Clemson is #100
Duke is #1
Wake Forest is #102
North Carolina State is #30
Florida State is #15
Louisville is #18
Georgia Tech #94
Pittsburgh #64
North Carolina is #46
Boston College is #123
U of Miami is #74

Observations:
- The average Sagarin rating for the November and December opponents is #146.
- The average Sagarin rating for the January and February opponents is #64.
- That’s obviously skewed by the fact that Colgate, Seattle, Cornell, Bucknell, Oakland, North Florida and Niagara are all significantly worse than anyone in the ACC. But that’s hardly unimportant.
- Syracuse is ranked #56 by Sagarin. By that ranking, we’ve beaten the teams we should have beaten and lost to the teams we should have lost to. That’s not a great performance but it isn’t an alarming one. We haven’t looked good in the losses and in some of the wins but we haven’t really had a ‘bad’ loss yet.
- Here’s the fun part: Our Sagarin rating is better than 12 of our 18 remaining opponents. If form continues to hold, we’ll go 12-6 and wind up 20-11 and 13-7 in the ACC, 50 winning seasons in a row and a decent seed in the NCAA tournament.
- But you have to ask: how many of our 8 wins, 7 of them against teams ranked well below the worst ACC team, have been wins against those ACC team ranked below us in Sagarin? How many of those games would the effort against Niagara have won?
- Then, again, would we have played the way we did against Niagara if we were playing an ACC team.
- How much will this team evolve in these last 18 games?
- Then there is the ACC tournament, which might be all-important to us this year. We’re kind of due for a run there. And a team that can bomb away from the outside is often the kind of team that surprises people in tournaments where the next game is the next day. Get hot and stay hot!

 

[Cusefan0307]

KenPom is pretty much in line with that as well FWIW. If we do anything this year it will be decided in the first half of the ACC schedule. Outside of UVA all those games we either will be a small favorite or small dog.

 

[cuseguy]

11-7 gives us a shot. Tall order.

 

[tbonezone]

ask again later but ...

 

[SWC75]

 

[OttoinGrotto]

It would be nice to have a good showing in the ACC tournament for once. This could be a season where that makes a real difference.

 

[tbonezone]

i'm not giving up on the season by any means. long and difficult road ahead sure. but let's see how it goes.

 

[Halfmooncuse]

You ever attended the “ Book of Mormon”? I wanted to believe too.

 

[MSOrange]

i'm not giving up on the season by any means. long and difficult road ahead sure. but let's see how it goes.

Good to hear. Nice to know we can always depend on you for a positive outlook

 

[tbonezone]

Good to hear. Nice to know we can always depend on you for a positive outlook

and nice to know you took your nose out of youknowwho's butt to notice.

 

[SWC75]

KenPom is pretty much in line with that as well FWIW. If we do anything this year it will be decided in the first half of the ACC schedule. Outside of UVA all those games we either will be a small favorite or small dog.

I was looking at Ken Pom and found that they had SU #61 but that's better than the same teams Sagarin has us better than: Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Virginia tech, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Clemson, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, Boston College and U of Miami. I counted that and found that's 12 teams, not 11. So both Sagarin and Ken Pom, based upon what they know right now, have us going 12-6 the rest of the way and winding up 20-11, 13-7 in the ACC. That's amazing, (and I'll believe it when I see it).

But it underscores the idea that just because the full ACC season is about to begin,. that doesn't mean we're about to go over Niagara Falls in a barrel.

 

[Cusefan0307]

I was looking at Ken Pom and found that they had SU #61 but that's better than the same teams Sagarin has us better than: Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Virginia tech, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Clemson, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, Boston College and U of Miami. I counted that and found that's 12 teams, not 11. So both Sagarin and Ken Pom, based upon what they know right now, have us going 12-6 the rest of the way and winding up 20-11, 13-7 in the ACC. That's amazing, (and I'll believe it when I see it).

But it underscores the idea that just because the full ACC season is about to begin,. that doesn't mean we're about to go over Niagara Falls in a barrel.

Not quite. I have a subscription to KP. We would be underdogs on the road to a couple of those teams we are rated higher and favorites at home to teams rated higher than us. KP predicts 9-9 the rest of the way.

 

[SWC75]

Not quite. I have a subscription to KP. We would be underdogs on the road to a couple of those teams we are rated higher and favorites at home to teams rated higher than us. KP predicts 9-9 the rest of the way.

That's a good point but my main point still holds. We are considered better than 2/3 of our remaining opponents and, if that's true we are not heading into a disaster. The other X factor is that all teams are trying each day to improve and these rankings will keep changing. The fact that we have a young team suggests we might improve more than most. But if we keep losing guys or the young players don't improve and aren't up to playing against an ACC team game after game, things could deteriorate. But the picture at this moment isn't as dark as many might think.

 

[tbonezone]

if the league is considered down then the wins will be too. it's a national tournament. acc doesn't get X bids.

 

[DonLightfoot]

All these numbers are fun to play with and I appreciate everybody putting them on here. Hey, what the heck else does this old fart have to do but try to absorb all this stuff (which is getting tougher). If our current rating is better than 2/3rds of the teams on our remaining schedule, then we should go 12-6, right? That would be fantastic obviously, but seems like a stretch from what I have seen thus far. However, I have not watched much in the way of game action from our fellow ACC competitors, so who knows? Just stay optimistic and cheer the kids on.

 

[Cusefan0307]

FSU only beat Georgia Tech by 12 and it was close throughout while being a 2 point game at the half. I know we played out of our mind, but we absolutely buried them at their place and Devoe did nothing. He had 19 today.

 

[tbonezone]

is it too much to ask to get to a conference championship game ? BET anybody ? can we play in one ?

 

[MSOrange]

FSU only beat Georgia Tech by 12 and it was close throughout while being a 2 point game at the half. I know we played out of our mind, but we absolutely buried them at their place and Devoe did nothing. He had 19 today.

Alvarado is now playing for Ga Tech and they have USC transfer Jordan Usher now eligible so I think they will be better, but hardly world beaters