Reply to thread

Message: [QUOTE="SWC75, post: 4215288, member: 289"] This is our record when winning each stat and when losing each stat, with a winning percentage and the difference in winning percentages. 2021-22 Team Offensive Possession Efficiency 16-0 0-17 1.000 – 0.000 = +1.000 Adjusted Possession Efficiency 13-3 3-14 0.8125 – 0.176 = +0.7949 Team Shooting Efficiency 14-2 2-15 0.875 – 0.118 = +0.757 Points scored/potential points 14-4 2-13 0.778 – 0.133 = +0.645 Starters 16-11 0-5 0.593 – 0.000 = +0.593 Two-pointers 12-3 4-13 0.800 – 0.235 = +0.565 Manufactured Possessions 10-2 6-15 0.833 – 0.286 = +0.547 Three-pointers 13-6 3-11 0.684 – 0.214 = +0.470 Effective Offensive Rebounding 12-9 1-7 0.571 – 0.125 = +0.446 First Chance Points 13-7 3-10 0.650 – 0.231 = +0.419 Fouls 9-3 7-14 0.750 – 0.333 = +0.417 Points per Takeover 11-5 5-12 0.6875 – 0.294 = +0.3935 Unsettled Situations 11-5 5-12 0.6875 – 0.294 = +0.3935 PIP “The Inner Sanctum” 12-6 4-10 0.667 – 0.286 = +0.381 Assist Percentage 4-1 12-16 0.800 – 0.429 = +0.371 Second Chance Points 9-4 6-12 0.692 – 0.333 = +0.359 Points outside the paint (POP) 9-6 7-11 0.600 – 0.389 = +0.211 Trey “The Outer Limits” 9-5 7-9 0.643 – 0.4375 = +0.2055 “The Twilight Zone” 9-8 4-7 0.529 – 0.364 = +0.165 Free-Throws 10-8 6-9 0.556 – 0.400 = +0.156 Rebounding 7-7 9-10 0.500 – 0.474 = +0.026 Fast Break Percentage 5-6 11-11 0.455 – 0.500 = -0.045 Bench Scoring 0-1 16-16 0.000 – 0.500 = -0.500 Comments: My big takeaway from this is that Jim Boeheim is right – you’ve got to make shots. There is no more important statistic, not even rebounds or turnovers. Oh, an the way the game is called does seem to matter. I’ll be dropping some of these stats next year for various reasons. The conventional offensive efficiency rating is available form other sources and is always won by the team that won that game, (there was one exception in the last six years, below, due to rounding). It’s more of a reflection of who won the game rather than a cause. I’ll go with my ‘adjusted’ efficiency rating, which deleted subtracting offensive rebounds and adding turnovers, thus considering them as separate possessions. That produces a number that can sometimes be lost by the winning team and tells you more about what happened in the game. I think I’ll drop Starters and Bench points. They are easily computed and read, respectively and it seems obvious that we need to win the first stat and will lose the second. I think I’ll drop ‘Effective Offensive Rebounding’ and ‘Points Per Takeover” which are both represented in ‘Unsettled Situations’. What I’m trying to measure is a team’s response when they suddenly have to respond to a failure to obtain or maintain control of the ball and have to play defense when they didn’t expect to. And I needn’t list ‘Second Chance Points’, which are part of the box score. “First Chance Points” is the hidden statistic – how did we do in our opening sets? ‘PIP’, or ‘Points in the Paint’ is in the box score but I want to compare it to ‘POP’ or ‘Points Outside The Paint’ so I’ll continue to keep track of it. I may drop the “Twilight Zone” designation. I’ll continue to keep track of assist percentage. We tend to get fewer of them but I’m amazed that that stat, over 6 years, has been a better predictor or victory than rebounding, at least the way I compute the latter, (what percentage of each teams misses wind up as offensive rebounds). We don’t do either very well and we tend to win games when we win those stats. It seems to make less difference when we lose the stat as we are more likely to do so. There’s no need to have two stats for three pointers, so I’ll keep track of the shooting percentage, not the total, (which I have to compete for the shooting percent age anyway.) Fast Break percentage doesn’t seem to matter much, either. It just seems to make me lament the passing of the old days. I’ve retained these numbers for the last six seasons. Here is their overall ranking over that period: Offensive Possession Efficiency 113-1 1-83 0.991 – 0.012 = +0.979 Shooting Efficiency 68-5 4-50 0.932 – 0.074 = +0.858 Starters 106-28 3-53 0.791 – 0.054 = +0.737 Points scored/potential points 84-15 11-52 0.848 – 0.175 = +0.673 Adjusted Possession Efficiency 60-9 12-46 0.870 – 0.207 = +0.663 Two-pointers 80-19 26-63 0.808 – 0.292 = +0.516 Manufactured Possessions 81-19 27-63 0.810 – 0.300 = +0.510 Points outside the paint (POP) 78-18 29-64 0.8125 – 0.312 = +0.5005 Three-pointers 84-20 31-59 0.808 – 0.344 = +0.464 PIP “The Inner Sanctum” 75-25 28-54 0.750 – 0.341 = +0.409 Assist Percentage 48-10 60-71 0.828 – 0.458 = +0.370 Rebounding 58-18 52-67 0.763 – 0.437 = +0.326 Points per Takeover 76-30 29-54 0.717 – 0.349 = +0.368 Unsettled Situations 75-32 19-36 0.701 – 0.345 = +0.356 First Chance Points 76-31 32-54 0.710 – 0.372 = +0.338 Trey “The Outer Limits” 41-14 29-37 0.745 – 0.439 = +0.306 Fouls 66-27 44-58 0.710 – 0.431 = +0.279 Effective Offensive Rebounding 76-40 30-44 0.655 – 0.405 = +0.250 Fast Break Percentage 44-20 28-33 0.6875 – 0.459 = +0.2285 “The Twilight Zone” 73-36 28-33 0.670 – 0.459 = +0.211 Free-Throws 59-36 30-32 0.621 – 0.484 = +0.137 Second Chance Points 56-38 47-46 0.596 – 0.505 = +0.091 Bench Scoring 35-21 71-61 0.625 – 0.538 = +0.087 [/QUOTE]

Verification: What is a Syracuse fan's favorite color?