I was going to do this at the 1/4 pole, but never got around to it. So I'm not sure if there is a 1/3-pole or not, but I couldn't think of any other name for this post. Here are a few observations and thoughts on where this team stands after the first 10 games.
I was wrong part I ...
I am happy to admit that I never bought into the Fab Melo transformation but it certainly appears that after 10 games it's safe to say we have a very different Fab on our hands. I thought BK would lead the team in minutes at the 5, but it looks like it will be Fab. His conditioning improvements are remarkable and just generally he seems to have a much better idea of what he is doing. One thing I'll give myself credit for is that I did post on several occasions that something like 7 ppg, 5 rpg, 2 bpg and 25 mpg would be MAJOR improvement and that we weren't likely to see more than that. The folks talking 12 ppg and 7 rpg remain crazy as far as I'm concerned.
I was wrong part II ...
Dion Waiters is, well, the best offensive player on this team. I hope he can be a tad more consistent the rest of the way, but he just has a knack for creating on that end of the floor and there isn't many on this squad that can do that. He's also been, perhaps more importantly, really good on defense and at least appears to have bought into the whole team concept. I'm still not sure someone just completely changes overnight or "matures" the way sports media loves to tell us they do. But even if this is just a means to an end (NBA), I'm enjoying Good Dion and it really is immaterial.
I was right for once, even if it was obvious ... We are struggling in the half court
Even with Good Dion and Improved Fab, this team is really struggling to get good looks in the half-court. Consider this: This team is basically leading the free world steals and turnovers forced, they've been pretty good on the offensive glass and they are shooting a respectable 35% from three. But they are shooting just .476. Now the best offensive team in recent memory (even better than the group with the real Melo, IMO) was the 09-10 team. That team shot .512. Not a huge gap until you consider that was AFTER Big East play in an absolutely stacked conference. That team also averaged 21.3 FTs/game while this team is at 18.8.
Individual Awards
MVP -- Waiters
This team had a lot of nice pieces but needed someone to step up and be an offensive difference-maker and Waiters has done that. I expect he'll grow into that role even further by March.
Most Improved -- Melo
This one is easy.
Solid Start Award -- KJ
OK, I had to make this up. Joseph hasn't broken out in a big way and my never quite be teh player we hoped he would be. BUT, if you look at his past 13 games, (includes the BET and NCAA games last season), KJ has grabbed at least 8 boards 7 times. He's also scored in double-figures in all but two of those games, but one of those games was Colgate and he played 13 minutes. So, the point is, I think KJ has made subtle improvements -- more consistent shooter (though he struggle vs. GW), a little better on the glass, a little more consistent presence offensively. He's off to a solid start.
The Don't Look Now Award -- Scoop
This board's favorite whipping boy has had a slow start and still has a penchant for aggravating turnovers and glaring holes (FT shooting? Where did that come from). But Scoop is averaging 8 ppg and 4 assists per game for the season in just 20 minutes -- pretty good numbers -- and in his last 5, Scoop is averaging 11 points, shooting north of 60% from the floor and chipping in with 3 rpg, 5.4 assists pg, and almost 3 steals per game in around 24 mpg. I would expect his mpg will continue to climb and hopefully he can continue to be a positive presence on the floor.
The Better-Than-I-Expected Award -- Rak
Christmas hasn't been great but I continue to think he looks more comfortable on the offensive end than I ever would have imagined given his HS numbers and the few times I actually saw him play (2x, I guess).
Storylines going forward
Will this team improve in the half-court?
A lot of folks will discuss the rebounding, but I think if they are playing almost exclusively zone and they can hang with most teams on the glass, they are in good shape. The big question to me is, when the orange run into a good team that slows it down, maximizes their offensive possessions by taking care of the ball, etc. and hits some shots, can the cuse answer with execution and patience on the offensive end? They might be able to survive as a mostly perimeter-oriented team, but they HAVE to show they can make shots and get open looks relatively consistently.
Can Fab and/or KJ give this team some looks inside the 3-point arc
By my count -- which is just televised games -- I remember Joseph getting the ball with his back to the basket, on the wing at about 15 feet 2 times -- once vs. Florida and once vs. GW. I want to see more of this b/c I think KJ can hit turnaround jumpers, drive baseline, pass the ball to the low post or up top, and draw contact from that spot on the floor. Just feel he's much better there as opposed to trying to create with crazy dribbling at the top of the key. Also love to see Fab get a few more touches even if he ends up just kicking it out.
Will Fab hold up vs. BE foes?
I don't see any real reason he won't, but Fab needs to be able to play physically and avoid foul trouble. Until we see that against a higher level of competition, it remains a question.
What does the rest of this year hold for Michael Carter-Williams?
I liked MCW from the beginning but felt he was a year away from really getting big BE minutes. But, while he didn't play vs. UF, he has come out and put 13 assists with no turnovers while playing disruptive defense in his last 3 games. I still would guess minutes might be hard to come by, but I think MCW is closer to working his way into the rotation than he was even 10 days ago.
Can Southerland contribute?
I know we've had players who've had some big games against the colgates of the world, only to ride pine for BE play and the tournament. But have we ever had a guy score at least 14 in four of his first 7 games only to never play again? That would be unprecedented, I think. Regardless, I still maintain that JS could coneivably help an offensively-challenged team a couple of times as teh season goes on. Rak, BK and Fair have all had moments as well as struggles at the 4 so while there has been some ugly moments for JS, he's still got an open door to PT in front of him.
I was wrong part I ...
I am happy to admit that I never bought into the Fab Melo transformation but it certainly appears that after 10 games it's safe to say we have a very different Fab on our hands. I thought BK would lead the team in minutes at the 5, but it looks like it will be Fab. His conditioning improvements are remarkable and just generally he seems to have a much better idea of what he is doing. One thing I'll give myself credit for is that I did post on several occasions that something like 7 ppg, 5 rpg, 2 bpg and 25 mpg would be MAJOR improvement and that we weren't likely to see more than that. The folks talking 12 ppg and 7 rpg remain crazy as far as I'm concerned.
I was wrong part II ...
Dion Waiters is, well, the best offensive player on this team. I hope he can be a tad more consistent the rest of the way, but he just has a knack for creating on that end of the floor and there isn't many on this squad that can do that. He's also been, perhaps more importantly, really good on defense and at least appears to have bought into the whole team concept. I'm still not sure someone just completely changes overnight or "matures" the way sports media loves to tell us they do. But even if this is just a means to an end (NBA), I'm enjoying Good Dion and it really is immaterial.
I was right for once, even if it was obvious ... We are struggling in the half court
Even with Good Dion and Improved Fab, this team is really struggling to get good looks in the half-court. Consider this: This team is basically leading the free world steals and turnovers forced, they've been pretty good on the offensive glass and they are shooting a respectable 35% from three. But they are shooting just .476. Now the best offensive team in recent memory (even better than the group with the real Melo, IMO) was the 09-10 team. That team shot .512. Not a huge gap until you consider that was AFTER Big East play in an absolutely stacked conference. That team also averaged 21.3 FTs/game while this team is at 18.8.
Individual Awards
MVP -- Waiters
This team had a lot of nice pieces but needed someone to step up and be an offensive difference-maker and Waiters has done that. I expect he'll grow into that role even further by March.
Most Improved -- Melo
This one is easy.
Solid Start Award -- KJ
OK, I had to make this up. Joseph hasn't broken out in a big way and my never quite be teh player we hoped he would be. BUT, if you look at his past 13 games, (includes the BET and NCAA games last season), KJ has grabbed at least 8 boards 7 times. He's also scored in double-figures in all but two of those games, but one of those games was Colgate and he played 13 minutes. So, the point is, I think KJ has made subtle improvements -- more consistent shooter (though he struggle vs. GW), a little better on the glass, a little more consistent presence offensively. He's off to a solid start.
The Don't Look Now Award -- Scoop
This board's favorite whipping boy has had a slow start and still has a penchant for aggravating turnovers and glaring holes (FT shooting? Where did that come from). But Scoop is averaging 8 ppg and 4 assists per game for the season in just 20 minutes -- pretty good numbers -- and in his last 5, Scoop is averaging 11 points, shooting north of 60% from the floor and chipping in with 3 rpg, 5.4 assists pg, and almost 3 steals per game in around 24 mpg. I would expect his mpg will continue to climb and hopefully he can continue to be a positive presence on the floor.
The Better-Than-I-Expected Award -- Rak
Christmas hasn't been great but I continue to think he looks more comfortable on the offensive end than I ever would have imagined given his HS numbers and the few times I actually saw him play (2x, I guess).
Storylines going forward
Will this team improve in the half-court?
A lot of folks will discuss the rebounding, but I think if they are playing almost exclusively zone and they can hang with most teams on the glass, they are in good shape. The big question to me is, when the orange run into a good team that slows it down, maximizes their offensive possessions by taking care of the ball, etc. and hits some shots, can the cuse answer with execution and patience on the offensive end? They might be able to survive as a mostly perimeter-oriented team, but they HAVE to show they can make shots and get open looks relatively consistently.
Can Fab and/or KJ give this team some looks inside the 3-point arc
By my count -- which is just televised games -- I remember Joseph getting the ball with his back to the basket, on the wing at about 15 feet 2 times -- once vs. Florida and once vs. GW. I want to see more of this b/c I think KJ can hit turnaround jumpers, drive baseline, pass the ball to the low post or up top, and draw contact from that spot on the floor. Just feel he's much better there as opposed to trying to create with crazy dribbling at the top of the key. Also love to see Fab get a few more touches even if he ends up just kicking it out.
Will Fab hold up vs. BE foes?
I don't see any real reason he won't, but Fab needs to be able to play physically and avoid foul trouble. Until we see that against a higher level of competition, it remains a question.
What does the rest of this year hold for Michael Carter-Williams?
I liked MCW from the beginning but felt he was a year away from really getting big BE minutes. But, while he didn't play vs. UF, he has come out and put 13 assists with no turnovers while playing disruptive defense in his last 3 games. I still would guess minutes might be hard to come by, but I think MCW is closer to working his way into the rotation than he was even 10 days ago.
Can Southerland contribute?
I know we've had players who've had some big games against the colgates of the world, only to ride pine for BE play and the tournament. But have we ever had a guy score at least 14 in four of his first 7 games only to never play again? That would be unprecedented, I think. Regardless, I still maintain that JS could coneivably help an offensively-challenged team a couple of times as teh season goes on. Rak, BK and Fair have all had moments as well as struggles at the 4 so while there has been some ugly moments for JS, he's still got an open door to PT in front of him.
