I was born and raised in Rochester as a Syracuse fan and have been one all my life, but for the last 15 years, I have been living here in West Virginia and have seen every WVU game for the last several of those years. Based on what I saw out of the Mountaineers, here is what I think will happen during the Pinstripe Bowl:
1. There will be no let down for WVU. They are not happy about playing a perceived ho-hum SU in a after playing them every year in the Big East and after a possible backyard brawl with Pitt didn't materialize. They are not thrilled to play in cold, nasty, rainy/snowy NYC instead of somewhere warm and exciting. That might lead you to expect a let down. However, last years beatdown at the hands of the Orange and the closer but still miserable loss the year before at WVU will have WVU ready for vengence. Also, every WVU fan comes with a built in highlight reel of the 1992 game, 20th anniversary this year. Most WVU fans remember the date 10-17-92. They all remember what they feel was a concerted effort by the officials to screw WVU by ejecting 3 key WVU defenders vs. only 1 SU reserve OL following Marvin Graves' unsportsmanlike throwing of the football at a WVU player out of bounds after an arguable late hit that spurred on a brawl with 4 SU players stomping on a WVU defender. That was followed by a 4th down SU incomplete pass with a ridiculously late flag on the other side of the field for pass interference that kept the drive alive and an eventual Gedney TD catch to win it for SU. WVU will be into this game regardless of whether the Swartzwalder trophy is at stake.
2. Tavon Austin will dominate. He will get a bunch of carries at RB along with a good 6 or 7 short passes or shovel passes to get him the ball in space. After a 4 week losing streak that made this a lost season, WVU decided to change things up and do everything they could to win that Oklahoma game. Holgorsen recognized that Geno Smith's confidence was gone and his QB play deteriorated with a step up in defenses against him and with his own defense leaking like a sieve costing them game after game. So Holgorsen pulled out all the stops to get Tavon Austin the ball as many times as he could. The results were that Tavon Austin showed he was the most athletic and electric player on the field and could not be stopped one on one even by Oklahoma's defense. He ran 21 times for 344 yards and 2 TDs and caught 4 for 82 yards. He also returned 8 kicks for 146 yards. Thats 572 yards. The Oklahoma game was a pull out all the stops, gotta win it game for WVU. They didn't, but Austin was incredible. This is the end of Austin's college career and WVU wants its seniors to go out at least with a bowl win and WVU will give Austin every chance to single handedly win this game.
3. Smith, PTG and AAM will be frustrated. WVU's defense against the run is pretty good. There is no one in Orange with breakaway speed to get through the hole and then make people miss. The big bodies up front will bottle things up pretty well and SU will focus on the pass.
4. Nassib will have a better game than Geno Smith. Its a shock to say it given the beginning of the year Heisman hype, but Nassib improved throughout the year and Geno Smith looked lost after his confidence was dented once Big 12 conference play started. Geno rebounded for an awesome day against Kansas last week of the season, but SU's defense is exactly the type of defense Smith has trouble with -- hard hitting, physical and aggressive. Put Smith's issues together with the fact that SU's defense is much better than WVU's defense and Nassib's numbers will be better than Geno's. WVU's secondary is damn near the worst in FBS football. While many SU fans are not pleased with SU's secondary (particularly the safeties), WVU's secondary was much worse. Once conference games started, it seemed that no one on WVU's defense knew what the set was. WVU's opposing WRs had wide open looks on seemingly every play. An effective QB could and would routinely scorch them. WVU's WRs are an impressive bunch -- Steadman Bailey (1500 yards and 24 TDs, which is 7 more than anyone else in the country!), Austin and JD Woods can catch the ball well and run after the catch with some of the best in the country, but Geno Smith folds with pressure and as he gets uncomfortable, his throws get more and more off target. The key will be getting pressure on him, not even sacks, but hurries, and I think the Orange D-line will be able to do that. Spruill's loss (assuming eligible doesn't mean playing) will be felt, particularly when Austin runs through the linebackers, but Lemon, Sales, West et al. will be open all day and Nassib will have plenty of time to hit them with Pugh continuing to make the line a cohesive and effective unit. The SU OL's improvement throughout the year will continue and they will look great in the bowl game on pass protect against a weak WVU pass rush.
5. Special Teams can easily decide this game. Austin is a game changer on kicks as well as on offense. The best thing SU can do is kick it away from Austin to keep it out of his hands. WVU's special teams are better than SUs, even with SU's special teams improvement later in the season. That happens when one team has a game breaking superior athlete and the other doesn't. This is on Dougie to play it smart and not give Austin the chance.
6. This will be a shootout and if SU can play merely adequate special teams, WVU's lack of any kind of secondary will cost them the game. WVU has already fired its secondary coach even before the bowl game is played. That will have absolutely zero chance of improving the secondary. Holgorsen can't get rid of the defensive coordinator Deforest, though, because he's a friend and Holgorsen begged him to come north and take on a DC position and Holgs can't get rid of him after only 1 season.
SU wins 45.42.
