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Message: [QUOTE="Cusefan95, post: 4820194, member: 173"] The numbers don’t lie, which is what the spread is set by. Since most bettors use analytics now, a summary of analytics gets you generally close to the spread. That we are hot garbage is indisputable. Sagarin has us behind Montana St. If we played 6-3 North Dakota State at their place, we’d be an underdog. That we are garbage is well understood and is factored into the spread. However - and this is key - Pitt is also hot garbage. They are ranked 70th in Sagarin, behind 3-6 California. They are poo-poo. The only reason we have “a good chance to win this thing” is anyone looking at the numbers would say both teams are dumpster fires and it’s pretty close to a coin toss. Anyone who has watched both teams and isn’t heavily emotionally invested would come to the same conclusion. [/QUOTE]