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Message: [QUOTE="Xanadu, post: 2745938, member: 4884"] We need to remember that comparing Ward’s defense to past SU defenses is not a real barometer. Is there tangible improvement? Yes, turnover rate, third down efficiency, and red zone efficiency are all good looking numbers this year. It’s a bend, don’t break defense and it’s working for us with a weak conference (let’s be honest, the ACC is mediocre at best this year). That all being said SU football has been pitiful in every major measure since 2001. We should take a look at Ward in comparison to WVU, Baylor, WSU that play similar styles of offense. I looked at third season DCs at those schools under Briles, Leach, and Holgorsen: 2010 Brian Norwood at Baylor (7-6) Fired Yards/game: 435 (104) Pass yds/game: 265 (114) Rush yds/game: 170 (79) Points/game: 30.5 (89) 2013 Phil Bennett at Baylor (11-2) Yards/game: 360 (28) Pass yds/game: 215 (34) Rush yds/game: 145 (39) Points/game: 23.5 (36) 2014 Mike Breske at Washington State (3-9) fired Yards/game: 442 (99) Pass yds/game: 297 (127) Rush yds/game: 146 (43) Points/game: 38.6 (117) 2017 Alex Grinich at Washington State (9-4) moved to OSU Yards/game: 314 (15) Pass yds/game: 167 (9) Rush yds/game: 146 (42) Points/game: 24.4 (47) 2016 Tony Gibson at West Virginia (10-3) Yards/game: 431 (79) Pass yds/game: 256 (99) Rush yds/game: 176 (66) Points/game: 23.4 (36) 2018 Brian Ward at Syracuse (5-2 so far) Yards/game: 416 (92) Pass yds/game: 236 (84) Rush yds/game: 180 (90) Points/game: 26.9 (70) Obviously there are some better stats and all that moneyball business you can use. However, the raw numbers do have a telling story. My bet is that if these numbers remain we will see two more wins this season at the most (unless the offense plays out of it’s mind the rest of the way). I think it will be hard for Dino to justify keeping Ward around even with an improved bend but don’t break defense. Some of you will talk about the efficiencies I mentioned in my first paragraph to defend. I will say this. Football, warfare, politics, marketing, etc. are about probability over the long term. If you give up a lot of yards consistently then your probability of having a good scoring defense decreases exponentially. Efficiencies always give way and correct to the yardage truth over the course of a season. Furthermore, Ward’s demeanor on playcalling and inability to make timely adjustments make it seem that he is way in over his head at this level. He never looks confident in what he is doing and that is 3/4 of the battle as a leader. This defensive talent is what has kept us in ball games, not Ward’s schemes or coaching. We are squandering talent and spotting points on that side of the ball. Maybe he proves me wrong, but I doubt it. [/QUOTE]

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