Defering to the second half | Syracusefan.com

Defering to the second half

SWC75

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It occurred to me that I couldn't recall a game this year where we deferred to the second half and then opened the second half with a score. I also wondered how often we'd stopped the other team at the beginning of the game and what advantage we'd gained from it. I decided to look it up. I don't recall if any of these situations were the result of the other team winning the toss and not deferring but everyone seems to be deferring these days and the situation it creates is the same.

Rhode Island:
1st half: Rhode Island fumbled the kickoff. We gave it right back to them with an interception.
2nd Half- we had a 9 play 72 yards drive ending in a 13 yard TD run by Jordan Fredericks. that put us up 38-0.

Central Michigan:
1st Half: We made 'em punt but a clip gave us the ball on the SU 11. We punted and they got it back on the CMU 42.
2nd Half: We gained 9 yards and punted.

Pittsburgh:
1st Half: Pitt drove to the SU 14 and kicked a field goal.
2nd Half:We gained 8 yards and punted.

Florida State:
1st Half: We forced a punt and got the ball on the FSU 49. But we punted it right back to them. We forced another punt, got the 62 yarder to Strickland and scored first.
2nd Half:We gained 34 yards and punted.

Louisville:
1st Half: The Cardinals score din four plays.
2nd Half:We gained 37 yards and missed a 52 yard field goal.

Clemson:
1st Half: They scored in two plays.
2nd Half:We gained 7 yards and punted.

The idea of stuffing them on defense and getting good field position early and then having a chance to take the momentum at the beginning of the second half hasn't worked out very well. It might be a strategy that a better team could take more advantage of. But I suppose that's true of all strategies.
 
I hate it, just me

Like punting on anything less than 4th and 6 on your side of the field
 
Someone needs to use a larger sample size. A much larger sample size. One that looks at teams across the board. How many points on average on a game opening possession and average points on 2nd half opening possession. Who could undertake such a task?
 
It occurred to me that I couldn't recall a game this year where we deferred to the second half and then opened the second half with a score. I also wondered how often we'd stopped the other team at the beginning of the game and what advantage we'd gained from it. I decided to look it up. I don't recall if any of these situations were the result of the other team winning the toss and not deferring but everyone seems to be deferring these days and the situation it creates is the same.

Rhode Island:
1st half: Rhode Island fumbled the kickoff. We gave it right back to them with an interception.
2nd Half- we had a 9 play 72 yards drive ending in a 13 yard TD run by Jordan Fredericks. that put us up 38-0.

Central Michigan:
1st Half: We made 'em punt but a clip gave us the ball on the SU 11. We punted and they got it back on the CMU 42.
2nd Half: We gained 9 yards and punted.

Pittsburgh:
1st Half: Pitt drove to the SU 14 and kicked a field goal.
2nd Half:We gained 8 yards and punted.

Florida State:
1st Half: We forced a punt and got the ball on the FSU 49. But we punted it right back to them. We forced another punt, got the 62 yarder to Strickland and scored first.
2nd Half:We gained 34 yards and punted.

Louisville:
1st Half: The Cardinals score din four plays.
2nd Half:We gained 37 yards and missed a 52 yard field goal.

Clemson:
1st Half: They scored in two plays.
2nd Half:We gained 7 yards and punted.

The idea of stuffing them on defense and getting good field position early and then having a chance to take the momentum at the beginning of the second half hasn't worked out very well. It might be a strategy that a better team could take more advantage of. But I suppose that's true of all strategies.
This is solid stuff.

I wish we took the ball. Go down the field, score, and make the other team play from behind.
 
Someone needs to use a larger sample size. A much larger sample size. One that looks at teams across the board. How many points on average on a game opening possession and average points on 2nd half opening possession. Who could undertake such a task?


Not me. Too much other stuff to do. Go to ESPN and look up the play-by plays for last week's games and see what you can come up with.
 
I don't have the data, but I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that the receiving team wins close to 50% of the time.
 
Two thoughts:

A. This might not be the year to defer given our youth movement on defense. Then again, if that's our challenge then when in the game is that going to change? Every drive will result in the same challenge for us.

B. Shouldn't a strong opening drive in the second half indicate good corrections by the staff? I don't know football like some here do but that would seem to be a strong indicator of poor ability to make needed changes.
 
I'd love to see long term data, but I think you need to defer. If you can score at the end of the first half and the beginning of the 2nd, you have a ton of momentum. Alternatively, is there anything worse than being the team on the other end of that?
 
OttoinGrotto said:
This is solid stuff. I wish we took the ball. Go down the field, score, and make the other team play from behind.
Well, who wouldn't love that? If we could will ourselves to scoring on the first possession, why can't we will ourselves to score every time we have the ball? Conversely, why don't we just stop the opposing offense when they receive the opening kickoff and then score to start the second half? Deferring is actually the only way you can score ( to close the half) and then receive a kickoff ( to start the 2nd half).

The bottom line is that we haven't been particularly adept at scoring to start a half, whether it is first or second, which kind of takes some air out of this topic.
 
Well, who wouldn't love that? If we could will ourselves to scoring on the first possession, why can't we will ourselves to score every time we have the ball? Conversely, why don't we just stop the opposing offense when they receive the opening kickoff and then score to start the second half? Deferring is actually the only way you can score ( to close the half) and then receive a kickoff ( to start the 2nd half).

The bottom line is that we haven't been particularly adept at scoring to start a half, whether it is first or second, which kind of takes some air out of this topic.
I think it's a mentality. Part of the secret sauce to today's high powered offenses is a belief that you can and will score every time you have the ball.
 
the upside is that many games we scored at the end of the first half and the D didnt stop the other team, MO switched. we could have come out and scored but we didnt which is what we hoped to do. it was the right play just not executed. the fact that 2 of those games we gained almost 40 yds shows how easily it can skew the results since we probably should have scored 3 times and been 50/50.
 
With as bad as we are with 2nd half adjustments, I like the idea of receiving the ball in the first half. Anyone know what our breakdown of scoring is by quarter? I'm lazy but i'll look it up if someone else doesn't already have it.
 
In the long run I'm guessing the data would show little difference. But (all else being equal), if one assumes defenses, rather than offenses, tire more from being on the field - seems to make more sense to receive the opening KO as your defense would be well rested after half time.
 
Just ran the numbers for the 3rd quarter through the year. We have scored 47 points total in the 3rd quarter. Therefore we average less than 5 points per 3rd quarter.

The 2nd half adjustments are bad. That is all...
 
% of scoring by quarter:
1st - 23%
2nd - 32%
3rd - 17%
4th - 21%
OT - 7%

Not as bad as I thought but still bad. Can we elect to defer to the 2nd quarter?
 
It's not just about the opening possession, but all possessions in the half. There is a 50% chance that the team that starts with the ball will get one extra offensive series in the half (0% that the team beginning on defense will get an extra series). The decision is do you want to use that extra chance early and hopefully build an insurmountable lead, or save it for crunch time at the end of the game?

Establishing momentum, springing game plan surprises, and/or making halftime adjustments are also involved in the decision, of course.
 
It's not just about the opening possession, but all possessions in the half. There is a 50% chance that the team that starts with the ball will get one extra offensive series in the half (0% that the team beginning on defense will get an extra series). The decision is do you want to use that extra chance early and hopefully build an insurmountable lead, or save it for crunch time at the end of the game?

Establishing momentum, springing game plan surprises, and/or making halftime adjustments are also involved in the decision, of course.


Getting off the field in the fourth quarter has been a huge problem for us, despite all the deferrals.
 
% of scoring by quarter:
1st - 23%
2nd - 32%
3rd - 17%
4th - 21%
OT - 7%

Not as bad as I thought but still bad. Can we elect to defer to the 2nd quarter?
We score 7% of our points in overtime?

couchburn
 
It occurred to me that I couldn't recall a game this year where we deferred to the second half and then opened the second half with a score. I also wondered how often we'd stopped the other team at the beginning of the game and what advantage we'd gained from it. I decided to look it up. I don't recall if any of these situations were the result of the other team winning the toss and not deferring but everyone seems to be deferring these days and the situation it creates is the same.

Rhode Island:
1st half: Rhode Island fumbled the kickoff. We gave it right back to them with an interception.
2nd Half- we had a 9 play 72 yards drive ending in a 13 yard TD run by Jordan Fredericks. that put us up 38-0.

Central Michigan:
1st Half: We made 'em punt but a clip gave us the ball on the SU 11. We punted and they got it back on the CMU 42.
2nd Half: We gained 9 yards and punted.

Pittsburgh:
1st Half: Pitt drove to the SU 14 and kicked a field goal.
2nd Half:We gained 8 yards and punted.

Florida State:
1st Half: We forced a punt and got the ball on the FSU 49. But we punted it right back to them. We forced another punt, got the 62 yarder to Strickland and scored first.
2nd Half:We gained 34 yards and punted.

Louisville:
1st Half: The Cardinals score din four plays.
2nd Half:We gained 37 yards and missed a 52 yard field goal.

Clemson:
1st Half: They scored in two plays.
2nd Half:We gained 7 yards and punted.

The idea of stuffing them on defense and getting good field position early and then having a chance to take the momentum at the beginning of the second half hasn't worked out very well. It might be a strategy that a better team could take more advantage of. But I suppose that's true of all strategies.
this might be randomness but we stink at running the ball in the third quarter
79 attempts for 292 yards.
http://www.cfbstats.com/2015/team/688/rushing/offense/situational.html

we're good at passing in the third q but we only pass 60 times.
http://www.cfbstats.com/2015/team/688/passing/offense/situational.html
 
It's not just about the opening possession, but all possessions in the half. There is a 50% chance that the team that starts with the ball will get one extra offensive series in the half (0% that the team beginning on defense will get an extra series). The decision is do you want to use that extra chance early and hopefully build an insurmountable lead, or save it for crunch time at the end of the game?

Establishing momentum, springing game plan surprises, and/or making halftime adjustments are also involved in the decision, of course.
I have to be a little nit-picky here, but there actually is a greater than 0% chance that the team beginning on defense will get an extra series because of onside kicks, regardless of how rare in the 1st half, they do occur.
 

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