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Message: [QUOTE="FloridaCuse, post: 5709546, member: 8912"] [B]LACROSSE REFERENCE[/B] via free Expected Goals Email March 16, 2026 [COLOR=rgb(51, 51, 51)][FONT=Helvetica][TABLE] [TR] [td][TABLE] [TR] [td][HEADING=1][SIZE=24px][COLOR=#000000]Preview: Denver vs Syracuse[/COLOR][/SIZE][/HEADING][/td] [/TR] [/TABLE][/td] [/TR] [/TABLE][/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=rgb(51, 51, 51)][FONT=Helvetica][TABLE] [TR] [SIZE=4][td][SIZE=4][COLOR=inherit]LaxElo tilts this matchup toward Syracuse: based on the current ratings (Syracuse 7th, Denver 15th), if these teams played 100 times, we would expect the Orange to win about 72 of those games. A Denver win would not be shocking, but it would qualify as a clear upset. Looking at the matchup, the clearest edge comes when Denver has the ball. Syracuse’s defense ranks 5th in opponent-adjusted efficiency, while Denver’s offense is 37th after adjusting for schedule. That gap means the Orange can disrupt Denver’s first looks and push the Pioneers into tougher shots or longer possessions. Denver has usually done just enough on offense with help from its defense, but this is a tougher test. If they can’t create clean looks, they’ll feel more pressure to convert on man-up chances and in late-clock situations. Flip the field, and the dynamic changes. Denver's defense has been elite—1st in opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency—while Syracuse's offense is 8th after adjusting for who they've faced. That's still a top-10 unit, but on paper Denver has a small edge here. The Pioneers have been better than anyone at limiting high-quality chances and forcing opponents into low-percentage looks. Syracuse, meanwhile, is used to dictating terms and playing through multiple threats. This side of the ball looks more like strength-on-strength than a mismatch, and it's the area where Denver is best positioned to tilt the game away from the pregame probabilities. The possession game probably won't swing this one, but it's worth a look. Looking at the teams as a whole, neither side has consistently built a big edge in extra possessions from faceoffs and the ride. Syracuse ranks 31st in adjusted extra possessions; Denver is 37th. All told, neither team has owned the possession battle once you factor in opponent strength. However, the individual faceoff matchup points to a potential Syracuse lever. John Mullen comes in as the 14th-rated specialist in the Faceoff Elo rankings, while Denver's Luke Smeader is 141st. Since faceoff performance is a primary driver of those extra-possession numbers, that gap indicates Syracuse has a real chance to gain more possessions than Denver at the X, even if their season-long team metrics don't show a huge edge yet. If Mullen turns that rating advantage into a few extra possessions, it could offset some of Denver's defensive strength and give the Orange more opportunities to solve the top-ranked Pioneers defense. Putting it together: Syracuse has the statistical edge when Denver is on offense and a realistic path to a possession advantage through Mullen at the X. Denver's counter is their No. 1-ranked defense, which gives them a credible route to slowing down a top-10 Syracuse offense and dragging the game toward a lower-scoring, tighter script than the LaxElo projection implies. Over 100 games, the numbers say Syracuse comes out on top most of the time, but Denver's defensive ceiling is high enough that an upset in this single meeting is very much on the table.[/COLOR][/SIZE][/td][/SIZE] [/TR] [/TABLE][/FONT][/COLOR] [/QUOTE]

Verification: What is a Syracuse fan's favorite color?