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Message: [QUOTE="FloridaCuse, post: 5711262, member: 8912"] [B]LACROSSE REFERENCE[/B] via free Expected Goals Email March 17, 2026 [TABLE width="100%"] [TR] [td][TABLE width="100%"] [TR] [td][HEADING=1][SIZE=24px][COLOR=#000000]Recap: Syracuse vs Denver[/COLOR][/SIZE][/HEADING][/td] [/TR] [/TABLE][/td] [/TR] [/TABLE] [SIZE=4][SIZE=4][COLOR=inherit]Syracuse needed every bit of its offensive ceiling to escape Denver with a 13–12 win that was much tighter than the pregame numbers suggested. LaxElo had the Orange as clear favorites, but they spent a good chunk of the night chasing the game, down 2–1 with just a 32% win probability early in the second quarter. From that point on, though, the offense flipped a switch and ultimately carried them to 7–2 on the season. [COLOR=inherit][IMG width="400px" alt="This graphic shows the in-game win probability for the Syracuse victory over Denver on Mar 16, 2026"]https://storage.googleapis.com/images.pro.lacrossereference.com/MiscImages/WinProbabilityGraphics/game0078161_Denver_27_vs_Syracuse_42_20260316_newsletterFormat.jpg[/IMG][/COLOR][/COLOR][/SIZE][/SIZE] [SIZE=4][SIZE=4][COLOR=inherit]The turning point was the stark split between the first quarter and everything after. In the opening 15 minutes, Syracuse's offense was stuck in neutral: 12.5% offensive efficiency and just 9% shooting. They were getting possessions but not turning them into real pressure, and Denver was able to dictate tempo and keep Syracuse from ever feeling in control.[/COLOR][/SIZE][/SIZE] [SIZE=4][SIZE=4][COLOR=inherit]From the start of the second quarter onward, it was a different story. Offensive efficiency jumped to 37.9%, and the shooting percentage climbed to 34%. That's not just “better finishing”; that's an offense consistently generating and converting quality looks. Given where the win probability sat at 2–1, that mid-game surge is basically the reason this didn't turn into an upset loss. Once the Orange offense settled in, Denver never really found an answer.[/COLOR][/SIZE][/SIZE] [SIZE=4][SIZE=4][COLOR=inherit]Zooming out to the season context, this was one of Syracuse's best offensive performances of the year. Their opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency checked in at 44%, a 100th-percentile outing for this team and better than all but one of their previous games. Just as important, they paired that high-end efficiency with elite ball security. Against a solid Denver defense, Syracuse posted an opponent-adjusted turnover rate of 20.5%, good for the 98th percentile. That's a big deal given the recent trend: they'd slipped to 28.8% over the prior three games (71st percentile) after opening the year at a pristine 19.7% (100th percentile). This game looked much more like the early-season version of the Orange—clean, poised, and efficient with the ball.[/COLOR][/SIZE][/SIZE] [SIZE=4][SIZE=4][COLOR=inherit]Defensively, the story was almost the mirror image. Syracuse got the win, but this was not one of their better days on that end. Their opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency landed at 36%, a 9th-percentile performance and the worst single-game mark of their season so far. A big piece of that was their inability to disrupt Denver's offense: the Orange forced an opponent-adjusted turnover rate of just 29.6%, which sits in the 29th percentile. That continues a downward trend from an early-season profile built on pressure (36.0% forced TO rate, 89th percentile) to something more middle-of-the-road over the last few games (31.6%, 51st percentile).[/COLOR][/SIZE][/SIZE] [SIZE=4][SIZE=4][COLOR=inherit]Some of that may be game state—when you're in a tight, back-and-forth contest, you can't always gamble as much defensively—but the numbers still point to a unit that wasn't as active or impactful as it's been at its best. For now, it reads as a warning sign more than a crisis: the offense is clearly good enough to win shootouts, but if Syracuse wants to live up to its favorite status against better opponents, the defense will need to rediscover that earlier, more disruptive form.[/COLOR][/SIZE][/SIZE] [SIZE=4][SIZE=4][COLOR=inherit]Bottom line: this was a hard-fought win that showed how good Syracuse's offense can be and how resilient they are. But it also showed their room for error gets small fast when the defense isn't forcing turnovers or getting stops.[/COLOR][/SIZE][/SIZE] [/QUOTE]

Verification: What is a Syracuse fan's favorite color?