did we wrap up a 5 seed today?
- Thread starter CorduroyG
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CusefanATL
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the 4/5 doest matter much to me. we are still playing the 4/5 in the 2nd round and then the 1 in the sweet 16.
this year, more than ever - seeding means little.
we just have to hope we are hitting shots. if we hit our jumpers, we will be in every single game with a chance to win.
thats all you can ask for.
this year, more than ever - seeding means little.
we just have to hope we are hitting shots. if we hit our jumpers, we will be in every single game with a chance to win.
thats all you can ask for.
Orangezoo
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exactly if Triche and James are hitting from the outside we can beat anyone because of our defense. Problem has been those games have been a SHU here.. a Depaul there... would love another run in the Garden though... especially considering the dissapointment after we hit 10-3 in the BE.
IMO this is how it breaks down barring major upset teams winning their conference tournaments.
lose to Pitt- 5 seed
beat Pitt- lose to Gtown/Cincinnati- 5 seed unless Kansas State/Oklahoma State lose in the Big XII quarterfinals then SU becomes a 4
beat Pitt/Gtown lose on Saturday- 4 seed
win the Big East tournament- 3 seed.
lose to Pitt- 5 seed
beat Pitt- lose to Gtown/Cincinnati- 5 seed unless Kansas State/Oklahoma State lose in the Big XII quarterfinals then SU becomes a 4
beat Pitt/Gtown lose on Saturday- 4 seed
win the Big East tournament- 3 seed.
jekelish
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If we get anything lower than a 5 at this point, I think we have every right to bitch about the committee. Win tomorrow, we should be either one of the last 4's or the top 5. Win Friday and a 4 should be locked up. Win the BET and we should probably be either the last 3 or top 4.
strumpfasaurus
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Statistically speaking I do not want a 5 seed.
jncuse
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No we did not.
If we look at matrix:
5 Syracuse, Pitt, St Louis, Wisconsin
If Pitt beats us it moves in front
If St Louis makes A-10 final it would likely be in front (depends on committee treatment of A-10) -- certain if it wins
Wisconsin - committee may favour B10 team already..and it could certainly win top 50
Its easy to see us as last 5 if we lose tomorrow. If one of Butler, VCU, UCLA, UNLV, Colorado St win conference tourney it very likely moves in front of us, makin us first six.
Not unreasonable scenario... and even if we stayed 5 in consensus, are we really expectin committee to follow consensus to a T?
If we look at matrix:
5 Syracuse, Pitt, St Louis, Wisconsin
If Pitt beats us it moves in front
If St Louis makes A-10 final it would likely be in front (depends on committee treatment of A-10) -- certain if it wins
Wisconsin - committee may favour B10 team already..and it could certainly win top 50
Its easy to see us as last 5 if we lose tomorrow. If one of Butler, VCU, UCLA, UNLV, Colorado St win conference tourney it very likely moves in front of us, makin us first six.
Not unreasonable scenario... and even if we stayed 5 in consensus, are we really expectin committee to follow consensus to a T?
CiceroCuse
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Without looking I think our computer numbers are better than most if not all of those teams. We wont drop below them even with a loss to Pitt IMO.
Marsh01
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I looked at this 9 ways to Sunday last night and here is how I think its playing out.
Heading into the game last night we were a 5 1/2 seed. Could be a 5 or a 6. Winning got us off that half line and we are now a 5 seed and probably the first 5 seed on the curve. Each game we win will get us another 1/2 seed. Win today and we are in the 4 1/2 seed range. Could be a 4 or a 5. Win tomorrow and we are clearly on the 4 line (and probably will stay there with a loss). Win Saturday night and we would be on the 3 1/2 line. Could sneak into the 3 seed line but could also be a 4.
I stopped looking at jumping from a 5-4 or a 6-5 and took the half of a seed approach which is what I think you need to start doing.
Bottom line is we should stay ahead of teams like St. Louis and will absolutely stay ahead of teams like VCU, UCLA, Butler and UNLV. No chance they jump over us. Wisconsin probably doesnt either unless they rattle off 3 wins in a row.
We are in good shape for no worse than a 5 seed with a 4 and possibly a 3 a slight reach. Keep winning games and we can look at it day by day.
Knicks411
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First of all, I kinda think we did lock up a 5.
Then again, let's be honest, the committee makes some really interesting seeding choices every year. So while I hear the reasoned argument that we are probably no worse than a 5, it's impossible to figure out what these guys are doing to do. They pretty much cop to spending a lot more time selecting the teams as opposed to seeding and bracketing them.
Then again, let's be honest, the committee makes some really interesting seeding choices every year. So while I hear the reasoned argument that we are probably no worse than a 5, it's impossible to figure out what these guys are doing to do. They pretty much cop to spending a lot more time selecting the teams as opposed to seeding and bracketing them.
Marsh01
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Teams we all should be rooting against this week (assuming we keep winning)
Okie State
Kansas State
Arizona
Marquette
Ohio State
New Mexico
St Louis
These are the teams that are fighting over a possible last spot or two on the 3 seed line as well as the 4 seed line.
Okie State
Kansas State
Arizona
Marquette
Ohio State
New Mexico
St Louis
These are the teams that are fighting over a possible last spot or two on the 3 seed line as well as the 4 seed line.
Shermthegeneral
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4 or 5, what's the difference really? We will play a top mid major or second tier BCS school. It's all about match-ups. 2 years ago we were the #3 in the east and got a terrible draw in getting Marquette in the second round. The tourney is 30% luck of the draw with match-ups and 70% having a solid team.
Marsh01
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The difference is actually huge. Projected 13 seeds are La Tech, Stephen F Ausitn, Valpo and Davidson. Projected 12 seeds are Belmont, Kentucky, Tennessee, Iowa State and Virginia.
I'll take the 4 seed thanks.
Since the tournament expanded in 1985 every year except 2 years a 12 seed has beaten a 5 seed in the tournament. 13's have beaten 4 seeds but is happens a lot less frequently. I would like to get 1 win under our belts before we play a 50/50 game.
Marsh if Penn State a team that has beaten Michigan and played them tight in Ann Arbor beat Michigan couldn't you see them falling down to the 4 line. Michigan didn't get a bye in the B1G tournament. I think we also want San Diego State to win the MWC if possible to help our win. I think Marquette's conference schedule has them not too far ahead of us. If we win tonight and they lose we could be close to them.
Marsh01
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I do think they could slip but it would also take some teams losing as well. Michigan because of the B1G will get the spot over other comparable teams. Right now Michigan is the first 3 on the Matrix so they would have to fall far. I will be a big Nitany Lion fan today.
Although we certainly helped ourselves yesterday I just don't see SU as being a lock for a 5 seed. First, if those in our vicinity have a good week then that will obviously hurt the cause. Maybe more importantly it depends on how we play today. If we revert to form, can't throw the ball in the ocean and lose to Pitt 68-51 in an ugly game then we're heading to six-ville.
One other point. I see a few folks say SU's computer #s are good. I'm having a hard time understanding that. We have two top 40 rpi wins this season and one was on an aircraft carrier four months ago. Our OOC schedule was rather weak. How does that all translate to good computer #s?
One other point. I see a few folks say SU's computer #s are good. I'm having a hard time understanding that. We have two top 40 rpi wins this season and one was on an aircraft carrier four months ago. Our OOC schedule was rather weak. How does that all translate to good computer #s?
I don't see us climbing over Ohio State, Marq and UNM no matter what happens this week.
Marsh01
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If we beat Pitt, Gtown and Louisville we absolutely jump New Mexico and depending on what OSU does we would probably be even with them. Same goes for Marquette assuming they get beat tonight.
As I've said before I think you're placing too much emphasis on this week.
I don't know much about UNM and I think the rpi is stupid but they have been in the top 5 for rpi for a long time now. If the Committee plays any attention to that then it's hard to see how we could jump them. OSU fits into the vision test scenario. If the Committee has watched OSU and SU play there is NFW on earth they seed us on the same line with them. Marquette's resume is not that impressive so I think there is a scenario where maybe we get on the same line with them but I don't see us jumping them no matter what happens.
