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Message: [QUOTE="dollarbill44, post: 3516759, member: 686"] There is another chart from NFL data from 2000 - 2011 that shows there is a higher conversion percentage for 3rd and 6 than for 3rd and 4, which further muddies the water if using average yards per play as a decision-maker. In other words, using DomeStrangers earlier logic that 2nd and 9 only requires 4.5 ypp to convert (compared to 5 ypp for 1st and 15), if the offense picks up 4.5 yards to make it 3rd and 4.5, it has a lower chance of converting than if it were to get 4.5 ypp on both 1st and 15 and 2nd and 10.5, resulting in 3rd and 6. This supports the thought it is a deeper decision than just average ypp required. At the very least it shows there isn't a clear cut right answer. But, DomeStranger point out me no good at math. [/QUOTE]