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[QUOTE="SoBristol, post: 1348824, member: 485"]
On average, you might expect that teams do about the same as in their recent history --because there are many variables at play (location, fan support, overall strength of the school and the program) and many of these variables do not change.

Yet there are plenty of examples close to us where a change in the HC does make a difference.  PP to Robinson (big negative change); Robinson to Marrone (big positive change); Marrone to Shafer (arguable in many dimensions, but there was a set-back on the OC side).

To me, it depends on judgment factors about why the program is struggling, and the reasons for the change in HC.  Not winning recruiting battles -- and the new HC has personal qualities that will make him better at closing?   Insufficient discipline and motivation within the program?  Game prep and in-game decisions?  Doubts about how the HC is building and refreshing his staff?  Lack of energy among the staff in recruiting efforts?   Ability of the HC to sell and promote the program internally & externally? Or, just not winning rivalry games, for whatever reasons?

I see positive signs in what Shafer is doing.  Bobby Acosta was a great hire, as was Jake Morland.  Recruiting seems to be a tad stronger (nothing spectacular yet).  A lot depends on progress on the OC side.   And, unfortunately, the 2015 team has some big challenges (the secondary, RB, DTs, lack of a capable back-up QB) that a different HC might have addressed through smart JUCO recruiting.

And, yes, bottom line I hope like crazy that Shafer puts it together, gets to a bowl, and makes it an easy decision to keep his band in place.
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