Dominance (updated from 2013)

[SWC75]

I’ve heard several people refer to last year’s Kentucky team as one of the greatest teams in the history of college basketball. That could be true. They went 38-2, the most wins ever for an NCAA champions and tired for the fewest losses since Indiana’s undefeated 1976 team. But I didn’t recall them really dominating their NCAA opposition. They beat Western Kentucky by 15, Iowa State by 16, Indiana by 12, Baylor by 12, Louisville by 8 and Kansas by 8. The consistency is impressive but it seems that the teams they played could at least compete with them. Were the Wildcats truly dominant in the tournament? The total margin of victory was 71 points, an average of 12 points per game, with the closest game being an 8 point game, (twice). I wondered how that compared historically to the other national champions. Here goes:

1939 Oregon outscored 3 opponents by 46 points, an average of 15 with the closest game a 13 point win.
1940 Indiana 51/3 = 17 (9)
1941 Wisconsin 12/3 = 4 (1)
1942 Stanford 32/3 = 11 (6)
1943 Wyoming 19/3 = 6 (4)
1944 Utah 21/3 = 7 (OT: I’ll just list if a game went into overtime, regardless of the final margin of victory)
1945 Oklahoma A&M, (now State) 56/3 = 19 (4)
1946 Oklahoma A&M 35/3 = 12 (4)
1947 Holy Cross 34/3 = 11(8)
1948 Kentucky 47/3 = 16 (8)
1949 Kentucky 52/3 = 17 (10)
1950 CCNY 9/3 = 6 (1)
1951 Kentucky 39/4 = 10 (2)
1952 Kansas 59/4 = 15 (4)
1953 Indiana 29/4 = 7 (1)
1954 LaSalle 56/5 = 11 (OT)
1955 San Francisco 69/5 = 14 (1)
1956 San Francisco 56/4 = 14 (11)
1957 North Carolina 42/5 = 8 (OT)
1958 Kentucky 70/4 = 17.5 (1)
1959 California 45/4 = 11 (1)
1960 Ohio State 78/4 = 19.5 (17)
1961 Cincinnati 48/4 = 12 (OT)
1962 Cincinnati 61/4 = 15 (2)
1963 Loyola (Chicago) 46/4 = 11.5 (OT)
1964 UCLA 30/4 = 7.5 (4)
1965 UCLA 62/4 = 15.5 (8)
1966 Texas Westerns, (UTEP) 32/5 = 6 (OT)
1967 UCLA 95/4 = 24 (15)
1968 UCLA 85/4 = 21 (9)
1969 UCLA 76/4 = 19 (3)
1970 UCLA 72/4 = 18 (11)
1971 UCLA 34/4 = 8.5 (6)
1972 UCLA 72/4 = 18 (5)
1973 UCLA 54/4 = 13.5 (11)
1974 NC State 57/4 = 14 (OT)
1975 UCLA 37/5 = 7 (OT)
1976 Indiana 66/5 = 13 (5)
1977 Marquette 40/5 = 8 (2)
1978 Kentucky 45/5 = 9 (3)
1979 Michigan State 104/5 = 21 (11)
1980 Louisville 46/5 = 9 (OT)
1981 Indiana 113/5 = 23 (13)
1982 North Carolina 23/5 = 5 (1)
1983 North Carolina State 32/6 = 5 (1)
1984 Georgetown 49/5 = 10 (1)
1985 Villanova 30/6 = 5 (2)
1986 Louisville 71/6 = 12 (3)
1987 Indiana 53/6 = 9 (1)
1988 Kansas 53/6 = 9 (3)
1989 Michigan 59/6 = 10 (OT)
1990 UNLV 112/6 = 19 (2)
1991 Duke 84/6 = 14 (2)
1992 Duke 75/6 = 12.5 ( OT)
1993 North Carolina 92/6 = 15 (OT)
1994 Arkansas 67/6 = 11 (4)
1995 UCLA 86/6 = 14 (1)
1996 Kentucky 129/6 = 21.5 (7)
1997 Arizona 32/6 = 5 (OT)
1998 Kentucky 80/6 = 13 (OT)
1999 Connecticut 71/6 = 12 (3)
2000 Michigan State 92/6 = 15 (11)
2001 Duke 100/6 = 17 (10)
2002 Maryland 84/6 = 14 (8)
2003 Syracuse 54/6 = 9 (1)
2004 Connecticut 80/6 = 13 (1)
2005 North Carolina 83/6 = 14 (1)
2006 Florida 76/6 = 13 (4)
2007 Florida 85/6 = 14 (8)
2008 Kansas 85/6 = 14 (OT)
2009 North Carolina 121/ 6 = 20 (12)
2010 Duke 87/6 = 14.5 (2)
2011 Connecticut 62/6 = 10 (1)
2012 Kentucky 71/6 = 12 (8)
2013 Louisville 97/6 = 16 (4)
2014 Connecticut 47/6 = 8 (OT)
2015 Duke 93/6 = 15.5 (5)
2016 Villanova 124/6 = 21 (3)
2017 North Carolina 67/6 = 11 (2)
2018 Villanova 106/6 = 18 (12)
2019 Virginia 45/6 = 7.5 (OT)
2021 Baylor 92/6 = 15 (9)

The average margin of victory per game for all national championship teams is 5181/397 = 13 points. The average lowest margin of victory, (with overtimes being counted as zero) is 341/82 = 4 points. By the way, the national championship has been decided in overtime 8 times: 1944, 1957, 1961, 1963, 1989, 1997, 2008 and 2019.

Here are the top ten champions in terms of their average margin of victory in the tournament:
1) UCLA 1967 24ppg
2) Indiana 1981 23ppg
3) Kentucky 1996 21.5ppg
4) UCLA 1968 and
5) Michigan State 1979 21ppg and
6) Villanova 2016
7) North Carolina 2009 20ppg
8) Ohio State 1960 19.5ppg
9) Oklahoma A&M 1945 and
10) UCLA 1969 and UNLV 1990 19ppg
It’s interesting that one of Bobby Knight’s teams is on this list but not the one you would think it would be. The 1976 team was 32-0 but only beat their tournament opposition by an average of 13 points, exactly the all-time average for a national champion. The 1981 team was a modest 26-9 on the season but a terror in the tournament.

Survive and Advance: These teams won by the smallest average margins:

1) Wisconsin 1941 4ppg
2) North Carolina 1982 and
3) North Carolina State 1983 and
4) Villanova 1985 and
5) Arizona 1997 5ppg
6) Wyoming 1943 and
7) CCNY 1950 and
8) Texas Western 1966 6ppg
9) Utah 1944 and
10) Indiana 1953 and UCLA 1975 7ppg
But they were all champs anyway, except maybe CCNY, who like their opposition, was found to be shaving points.

These teams had the highest lowest margin of victory in any game, (they were the farthest from being defeated in any game of the tournament):

1) Ohio State 1960 17 points
2) UCLA 1967 15 points
3) Oregon 1939 and
4) Indiana 1981 13 points
5) North Carolina 2009 and
6) Villanova 2018 12 points
7) San Francisco 1956 and
8) UCLA 1970 and
9) UCLA 1973 and
10) Michigan State 1979 and Michigan State 2000 11 points.

Maybe the best way to measure dominance is to average the average margin of victory and the lowest margin of victory. This would measure overall dominance and game-to-game dominance, (a 50 point blow out can make the over-all average deceptively high). Or, since it’s just two numbers, we could just add them together and skip a step. Here are the top ten teams by this measure:

1) UCLA 1967 39 combined points
2) Ohio State 1960 36.5
3) Indiana 1981 36
4) Kentucky 1996 32.5
5) Michigan State 1979 and
6) North Carolina 2009 32
7) UCLA 1968 and
8) Villanova 2018 30
9) UCLA 1970 29
10) Kentucky 1949 and Duke 2001 27

The all-time average in combined points is 17. Baylor in 2021 won their games by an average of 15 points and their closest game was 9 points, so they came in at 24, just missing the Top 10. That #1 UCLA team Beat #12 New Mexico State (22-5) 58-49, #17 Santa Clara (21-3) 87-66, #1 Houston (31-0) 101-69, (it was 78-34 at one point) and #4 North Carolina (28-3) 78-55. Kentucky in 2012 came in at 20 (average win by 12, closest game 8).

 

[SWC75]

A similar study I've updated from a couple of years ago:

This is a ranking of national champions since the tournament went to 64 teams in 1985 by adding their margins of victory in the 6 games they had to win to secure the title.

Kentucky ’96 129
Villanova ’16 124
North Carolina ’09 121
UNLV ’90 112
Villanova ’18 106
Duke ’01 100
Louisville ’13 97
Florida ’06 96
North Carolina ’93 94
Duke ’15 93
Baylor ’21 92
Michigan State ’00 92
Duke ’10 87
UCLA ’95 86
Florida ’07 85
Kansas ’08 85
Duke ’91 84
Maryland ’02 84
North Carolina ’05 83
Connecticut ’04 80
Kentucky ’98 80
Duke ’92 75
Connecticut ’11 72
Connecticut ’99 71
Kentucky ’12 71
Louisville ’86 71
Arkansas ’94 67
North Carolina ’17 67
Indiana ’87 63
Michigan ’89 59
Syracuse ’03 54
Kansas ’88 53
Connecticut ’14 47
Virginia ’19 45
Arizona ’97 31
Villanova ’85 30

(But they’re all champs.)


Strength of NCAA tournament schedule
(16 points for beating a #1 seed, 15 for a #2 seed, etc. Shortcut: If you played 6 #1 seeds in a row, you’d get 96 points. So add the actual seed numbers and subtract from 96 for the net total.)

Villanova ’85 76
Connecticut ’14 68
Villanova ’16 67
North Carolina ’93 63
North Carolina ’17 62
Syracuse ’03 62
Duke ’92 61
North Carolina ’09 61
Baylor ’21 60
Florida ’07 60
Kentucky ’96 60
Kentucky ’98 60
Maryland ’02 60
Michigan ’89 60
Kentucky ’12 59
UCLA ’95 59
Villanova ’18 59
Arizona ’97 58
Duke ’10 58
Connecticut ’11 57
Duke ’15 57
Kansas ’88 57
Connecticut ’04 56
Duke ’01 56
Duke ’91 55
Indiana ’87 54
North Carolina ’05 54
Michigan State ’00 53
Arkansas ’94 52
Connecticut ’99 51
Louisville ’86 51
Florida ’06 50
Virginia ’19 48
Kansas ’08 48
Louisville ’13 45
UNLV ’90 42

Since we won our only championship, every team that has won it was winning their second title or better except Florida '06, who won their second the next year until the last two, Virginia ’19 and Baylor ‘21.

2004 Connecticut #2
2005 North Carolina #4
2006 Florida #1
2007 Florida #2
2008 Kansas #3
2009 North Carolina #5
2010 Duke #4
2011 Connecticut #3
2012 Kentucky #8
2013 Louisville #3
2014 Connecticut #4
2015 Duke #5
2016 Villanova #2
2017 North Carolina #6
2018 Villanova #3
2019 Virginia #1
2021 Baylor #1