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Message: [QUOTE="SWC75, post: 3663021, member: 289"] Everybody’s wondering who will get to draft Trevor Lawrence as the #1 draft pick in the NFL draft. He’s said to be a generational talent and fans have speculated that teams were tanking to get him. I’ve always thought there is a dilemma here: do you build the team first or get your star quarterback first? The egg or the chicken? If you put a great young talent on a lousy team, you won’t get the most out of his talents and you might ruin him, (see below). If you try to build the team first, you may never get a chance to draft a top quarterback – you team, while not great, would be too good to get a high draft pick. The quarterback himself has a dilemma. After playing with a dominant team in college, 9and probably high school), doe she want to go to the worst team in the NFL, one that likely has a porous offensive line and receivers who can’t get open or cant’ catch his passes when they do. It’s been speculated that Lawrence might even want to remain another year in college because the teams vying for his services are so bad, (but would they bene any better next year?) many a top-rated quarterback has not survived the rigors of playing on a lousy team for the first time in his career. Not only do they look bad for the first time in their careers but they are risking injury, (ask Joe Burrow), or just getting worn down by being sacked so often. But then, “the strongest steel is forged in the hottest flame”. Maybe to become a top NFL quarterback a top college quarterback has to experience adversity and earn the respect of his teammates by surviving it. I decided to look at what quarterbacks are in the Hall of Fame and see where they were drafted. Do you have to draft #1 or close to it to get a Hall of Famer? I used this Wikipedia page: [URL="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Pro_Football_Hall_of_Fame_inductees"]List of Pro Football Hall of Fame inductees - Wikipedia[/URL] And this ProFootballReference.com page: [URL="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/"]NFL and AFL Draft History | Pro-Football-Reference.com[/URL] (The first NFL draft was in 1936 so no one who enter the league before that is listed.) Troy Aikman was drafted #1 Sammy Baugh was drafted #6 – highest QB George Blanda was drafted #119 – 9th QB Terry Bradshaw was drafted #1 Len Dawson was drafted #5 – 2nd QB John Elway was drafted #1 Bret Favre was drafted #33 – 2nd QB Dan Fouts was drafted #64 – 6th QB Otto Graham was drafted #4 (by the Lions: he opted to sign with the AAFC Browns) -2nd QB Bob Griese was drafted #4 – 2nd QB Sonny Jurgensen was drafted #43 – 6th QB Jim Kelly was drafted #14 – 3rd QB Bobby Layne was drafted #3 – 2nd QB Sid Luckman was drafted #2 – highest QB Dan Marino was drafted #27 – 6th QB Joe Montana was drafted #82 – 4th QB Warren Moon was undrafted (335 players were, including 18 quarterbacks) Joe Namath was drafted #12 by the Cardinals and #1 by the Jets (no combined draft) – 2nd QB in NFL draft Ace Parker was drafted #13 – 2nd QB Ken Stabler was drafted #52 – 4th QB Bart Starr was drafted #200 – 9th QB taken Roger Staubach was drafted #129 by the Cowboys and #122 by the Chiefs, (No combined draft -he had a 4 year Naval commitment) – 8th QB taken in NFL draft, 6th in AFL draft Fran Tarkington was drafted #29– 3rd QB, by the Vikings and #35 – 2nd QB, by the Patriots, (No combined draft) Y. A. Tittle was drafted #6 – 3rd QB, by the Lions but signed with the AAFC Colts, who joined the NFL in 1950 but then went out of business. Their players were put into the draft and he was drafted #3 – 2nd QB by the 49ers in 1951 Johnny Unitas was drafted #102 - 4th QB taken Norm Van Brocklin was drafted #37 – 6th QB taken Kurt Warner was undrafted (222 players, 9 QBs) Bob Waterfield was drafted #42 – 4th QB taken Steve Young was drafted #1 Since this doesn’t include quarterbacks not yet eligible for the Hall of Fame, I’ll add QBs who won MVPs, (regardless of selector), and aren’t already on the above list: [URL="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Football_League_Most_Valuable_Player_Award"]National Football League Most Valuable Player Award - Wikipedia[/URL] Charlie Conerly was drafted #127 – 3rd QB taken Earl Morrall was drafted #2 – 1st QB taken Roman Gabriel was drafted #2 – 1st QB, by the Rams and #1 by the Raiders (No combined draft) John Brodie was drafted #3 – 1st QB taken Bert Jones was drafted #2 – 1st QB taken Brian Sipe was drafted #330 – 12th QB taken Ken Anderson was drafted #67 – 6th QB taken Joe Theisman was drafted #99 – 8th QB taken Boomer Esiason was drafted #38 – 1st QB taken Rich Gannon was drafted #98 - 7th QB taken Peyton Manning was drafted #1 Steve McNair was drafted #3 – 1st QB taken Tom Brady was drafted #199 – 7th QB taken Aaron Rodgers was drafted #24 – 2nd QB taken Cam Newton was drafted #1 Matt Ryan was drafted #3 – 1st QB taken Patrick Mahomes was drafted #10 – 2nd QB taken Lamar Jackson was drafted #32 – 5th QB taken John Hadl was drafted #10 – 2nd QB, by the Lions and #24 – 4th QB, by the Chargers (No combined draft) Craig Morton was drafted #6 – 1st QB, by the Cowboys and #75 – 8th QB, by the Raiders (No combined draft) Archie Manning was drafted #2 – 2nd QB taken Phil Simms was drafted #7 – 2nd QB taken Randall Cunningham was drafted #37 – 1st QB taken Parker Hall was drafted #3 – 2nd QB taken I also decided to add in anyone in the Top 32, (the number of draft choices in the first round and a neat dividing line between Steve Young and Jay Cutler), quarterbacks in terms of touchdown passes: [URL unfurl="true"]https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_td_career.htm[/URL] Here are the ones on that list not on the above two lists: Drew Brees was drafted #32 – 2nd QB taken Philip Rivers was drafted #4 – 2nd QB taken Ben Roethlesberger was drafted #11 – 3rd QB taken Eli Manning was drafted #1 – 1st QB taken Carson Palmer was drafted #1 – 1st QB taken Matthew Stafford was drafted #1 – 1st QB taken Vinnie Testaverde was drafted #1 – 1st QB taken Russell Wilson was drafted #75 – 6th QB taken Dave Krieg undrafted (333 players, 17 QBs) Drew Bledsoe was drafted #1 – 1st QB taken Tony Romo undrafted (255 players, 17QBs) Donovan McNabb was drafted #2 – 2nd QB taken That’s 63 quarterbacks who certainly would certainly have been considered a good use of a draft pick. A total of 197 QBs were picked ahead of them, an average of 3 each. Adding one to the total players drafted for the undrafted QBs, the average draft pick for these QBs in #103. That’s not particularly meaningful as a big number tends to throw the sample off. A breakdown would be more meaningful: 11 were drafted #1 7 were drafted #2 5 were drafted #3 3 were drafted #4 1 was drafted #5 3 were drafted #6 1 was drafted #7 1 was drafted #8 2 were drafted #10 1 was drafted #11 1 was drafted #12 1 was drafted #13 1 was drafted #14 1 was drafted #24 1 was drafted #27 1 was drafted #29 2 were drafted #32 1 was drafted #33 2 were drafted #37 1 was drafted #38 1 was drafted #42 1 was drafted #43 1 was drafted #52 1 was drafted #64 1 was drafted #67 1 was drafted #75 1 was drafted #82 1 was drafted #98 1 was drafted #99 1 was drafted #102 1 was drafted #119 1 was drafted #127 1 was drafted #129 1 was drafted #199 1 was drafted #200 1 was drafted #330 4 were undrafted in drafts that totaled 222, 255, 330 and 333 players. I would conclude from this that taking a quarterback below the top 5-6 spots is basically a crap shoot: you might get a Hall-of-Famer but probably not. If you don’t have a high pick, you are better off building up the team around the guy you’ve got. Overall, I don't think 'tanking' is worth it. One guy isn't going to turn your franchise around. The Jets must have seen it the same way. [/QUOTE]

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