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Message: [QUOTE="JeremyCuse, post: 5016541, member: 43"] As always excellent stuff. I won't get into a huge breakdown here as I think most people are familiar with Duke and they are definitely loaded especially on offense. My memory could be failing me but I believe Olexxo has seen O'neil a few times before and had some success. I wouldn't be surprised if this is the game SU finally bumps him to close and let's Wright and Schmitt or Wright and Sageder play at LSM. In that scenario your putting Olexxo on O'Neil, Fig on Zawada and Dwan on Dyson Williams and Wright/backup LSM on MaCadorey. To me that is SU's best shot at winning. O'Neil plays more of a midfield type O game then a natural attackmen so again to me Olexxo is the play here and it absolves SU from playing the continued Kol vs Cacammo back and forth game that they still can't seem to figure out. Duke's middies will get a few versus our shorties as Daneza, Sloat and the forsh kid are all fairly good but you have to make them beat you versus the 4 knowns. Duke can also run 3 midfields or throw a bunch of middies at you through an interchangeable second line. They also wont hesitate to push transition with a lot of former O guys playing D-middie. Faceoffs will be key as you noted SU was dominated at the X last year but in both games and probably wins at least 1 if they could have even been at 45% at the X. Naso is a great FOGO but hasn't been as dominate as he has been in the past. Lot of mileage on him that maybe catching up a bit. Cuse needs to be in the neighborhood of 50%. Offensively Cuse will be facing probably one of the better defenses Duke has had recently. Brower is somehow still there and will surely draw Spallina, Carpenter their LSM is very good as well. Much like against Maryland were gonna need the secondary guys to step up. Not clear who Duke is gonna pole but assuming its English, Leo and Thomson will need to make an impact ditto for Birtwistle and Rhoa. March and Gait should be ready to mix up the mid lines a bit to create some mismatches. Run a 1st line of Leo, English and Birtwistle and see who Duke tries to pole. I worry again about Thomson in a game like this, he has to be a factor. Duke has an experienced and above average SSDMs in Caputo Maguire, and Gray but I wouldn't classify them as an elite unit, Cuse will have to attack there and have success. Assuming faceoffs are at worse even, SU should be able to get some looks but will need to limit the turnovers and avoid that bad quarter that has plagued them vs Maryland and Army. Intangibles will be interesting this game. Mark comign off his best game of the year will need to be close to that level again Sat. Him being under 50% won't work. Duke's opponents are clearing under 90% on the year but Duke's not a 10 man team or a big time riding squad. O'Neil and Williams will harass at times so SU will still need to be careful. Duke has not been great on the man up this year and has struggled on the man down, keep an eye on both of those numbers tomorrow night, I wouldn't be shocked if whoever did better on both of those came out with the W. As Powell noted this is a huge game for NCAA tourney purposes and a game you'd love to grab a W. Beyond that its enormous for ACC tourney purposes. With SU at ND next Sat (and a team they don't matchup well with) your staring at an 0-2 start in the face if you lose another close one to Duke. Again as Powell noted its not a must win but you also don't wanna keep kicking the can down the road because games at Cornell and UNC wont exactly be pushover wins. [/QUOTE]

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