Duke now a 5 seed

[sabach]

in Jerry Palm's latest bracket. If this is anywhere near what the committee is thinking at this point, I really like our chances of being in the East bracket as the 2 behind Kansas or Nova or the 3 behind Kansas and Nova. UVA can be the 2 in the South.

I really do think that with Duke's loss, UVA is almost a shoo in for the 2 in the South and as long as we win one more game this year, we will be the 3 in the East. Someone from the ACC has to be put in the East. As long as we stay ahead of Duke, I believe that this team will be SU.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

 

[Alsacs]

4-5 on the road,
wins over UVA, Syracuse, Michigan, UCLA-N, @Pitt,
losses-Kansas, Notre Dame, Clemson, Syracuse, North Carolina, Wake Forest
they are a 3 or 4 seed at worst IMO.

 

[Knicks411]

I can't see a 5 for Duke, seems too low.

Do we think UVA is tied to the south? The regional is in Memphis, which is about 200 miles further from Charlottesville than NYC is.

 

[Alsacs]

I can't see a 5 for Duke, seems too low.

Do we think UVA is tied to the south? The regional is in Memphis, which is about 200 miles further from Charlottesville than NYC is.

UVA will want the East if they get their preference which is why I am rooting for Maryland to pop them this weekend in Maryland and then hope the ACC tournament seeds are 1. UVA 2/3 Syracuse, North Carolina 4. Duke and we can get them in the ACC T Final.

Duke losing last night basically knocked them on the level of UNC IMO in terms of NCAA seed. I think the winner of their game Saturday will get the Raleigh pod first/second round, loser gets Orlando at best and loser gets destined for the West region.

 

[sabach]

I can't see a 5 for Duke, seems too low.

Do we think UVA is tied to the south? The regional is in Memphis, which is about 200 miles further from Charlottesville than NYC is.

No but the protected seeds are not in a vaccuum either. In other words, it is more equitable to put UVA in the South and SU in the East as opposed to UVA in the East and then make SU go to Memphis. This assumes that the committee sees SU and UVA as equitable.

 

[Alsacs]

No but the protected seeds are not in a vaccuum either. In other words, it is more equitable to put UVA in the South and SU in the East as opposed to UVA in the East and then make SU go to Memphis. This assumes that the committee sees SU and UVA as equitable.

The committee WILL NOT do that. If UVA would want the East then they would get the East and SU would go to Memphis. If UVA is higher than us in the eyes of the committee by even 1 spot then UVA deserves their preferred region which would be the East and so Syracuse would be out of luck and shipped to Indy or Memphis.

 

[sabach]

The committee WILL NOT do that. If UVA would want the East then they would get the East and SU would go to Memphis. If UVA is higher than us in the eyes of the committee by even 1 spot then UVA deserves their preferred region which would be the East and so Syracuse would be out of luck and shipped to Indy or Memphis.

Well I did say, "This assumes that the committee sees SU and UVA as equitable."

 

[Knicks411]

Have to agree with Alsacs, if UVA is higher on the S curve than us, they're goign to get preferential location over us.

 

[Alsacs]

Well I did say, "This assumes that the committee sees SU and UVA as equitable."

They can't be equitable 1 team would have to be higher and that team would get preference. If UVA was 6th and Syracuse was 7th then adv. UVA, but if the committee had SU 6th and UVA 7th then advantage SU.
UVA will get their preferred region which is East/MSG according to their fanbase.

 

[sabach]

4-5 on the road,
wins over UVA, Syracuse, Michigan, UCLA-N, @Pitt,
losses-Kansas, Notre Dame, Clemson, Syracuse, North Carolina, Wake Forest
they are a 3 or 4 seed at worst IMO.

Duke also lost to Arizona. They have 7 losses right now. I agree that I can't see Duke falling below the 4 line, but we are definately ahead of them right now. In fact, IMO, right now UVA is the only real threat that can bump us out of MSG. I see us as the 3 seed in the East behind Kansas and Nova.

 

[Alsacs]

Duke also lost to Arizona. They have 7 losses right now. I agree that I can't see Duke falling below the 4 line, but we are definately ahead of them right now. In fact, IMO, right now UVA is the only real threat that can bump us out of MSG. I see us as the 3 seed in the East behind Kansas and Nova.

Don't forget UNC.
UNC has non-conference wins over Louisville-N, @Michigan State, Kentucky, and losses to Belmont, UAB.

They play @Duke this Saturday and if they beat Duke they would be in contention for a 2 seed and MSG if they won the ACC Tournament. We want UNC to beat Duke because they are a good matchup for us in the ACC T over Duke because outside of Paige they shoot the 3 ball really poorly and I think we would have a better chance to win against them than Duke right now.

 

[SoBeCuse]

Have to agree with Alsacs, if UVA is higher on the S curve than us, they're goign to get preferential location over us.

Yep. No question. Deservedly so. What will get interesting and I pray to NEG it doesn't happen for SU, but, if SU and Duke really tailspin more. If Duke loses to UNC and if SU gets handled by FSU then if both get either 0 or 1 win in ACC Tourney.

 

[sabach]

They can't be equitable 1 team would have to be higher and that team would get preference. If UVA was 6th and Syracuse was 7th then adv. UVA, but if the committee had SU 6th and UVA 7th then advantage SU.
UVA will get their preferred region which is East/MSG according to their fanbase.

The committee always works around these things. They even admit they have to seed teams out of the S curve for locations and conference affiliations. The committee works seeds first, not locations. That is why Kansas can get the 1 in the East even though they are not in the East. Just because UVA is ahead of us does not guarantee that they will get MSG. If UVA is a 2 seed and the committee sees then as below Nova, UVA will go to the South as the 2 before they go to the East as the 3, even if the East is the preferred location for them. In this scenario, SU goes to the East as the 3, which is exactly what happened in 2003.

 

[CorduroyG]

Very worried virginia wins out and gets east 1, which would prevent us from being in the east. Really need them to lose.

 

[sabach]

I think virginia wins out and gets east 1

What if Kansas wins the BIG 12 championship?

 

[Alsacs]

The committee always works around these things. They even admit they have to seed teams out of the S curve for locations and conference affiliations. The committee works seeds first, not locations. That is why Kansas can get the 1 in the East even though they are not in the East. Just because UVA is ahead of us does not guarantee that they will get MSG. If UVA is a 2 seed and the committe sees then as below Nova, UVA will go to the South as the 2 before they go to the East as the 3, even if the East is the preferred location for them. In this scenario, SU goes to the East as the 3, which is excalty what happened in 2003.

If UVA was 5th on the S-Curve and Nova was 6th the committee would give UVA their preferred region even if that inconvenienced Villanova as a result.

The committee has given the top teams their preferred location. Thus the 1 number overall seed gets their preferred region, 2nd 1 seed gets the best of the remaining 3 regions, then 3rd gets its choice between the last 2 and 4th 1 seed gets whatever is left over.

5th seed or top 2nd seed gets their preferred region even if its the 1 number overall seed's region.

Thus we could end up with regional finals with 1 overall vs 5th overall top 2 seed, 2nd overall vs 6th overall 2nd 2 seed, 3rd overall vs 7th overall 3rd 2 seed, and 4th 1 seed vs lowest 2 seed.

The committee wouldn't send UVA to Memphis so Nova could go to MSG. It would give the higher seed MSG and the lower seed Memphis regardless if it was less travel for UVa to go Memphis than Villanova.

 

[Knicks411]

The committee always works around these things. They even admit they have to seed teams out of the S curve for locations and conference affiliations. The committee works seeds first, not locations. That is why Kansas can get the 1 in the East even though they are not in the East. Just because UVA is ahead of us does not guarantee that they will get MSG. If UVA is a 2 seed and the committee sees then as below Nova, UVA will go to the South as the 2 before they go to the East as the 3, even if the East is the preferred location for them. In this scenario, SU goes to the East as the 3, which is exactly what happened in 2003.

You are right that the seeding comes into play as well, I was thinking they would be the same seed, but not necessarily the case. Your scenario is for sure possible.

 

[CorduroyG]

What if Kansas wins the BIG 12 championship?

I think virginia should get it over them. 20-1 in the ACC? How does that not get a 1 seed?

 

[sabach]

You are right that the seeding comes into play as well, I was thinking they would be the same seed, but not necessarily the case. Your scenario is for sure possible.

Well to be honest, I was thinking they would be the same seed. Alsacs is probably right, the committee would give UVA preference over SU for location if they were the same seed and UVA wanted NYC. Probably just wishful thinking on my part.

 

[Knicks411]

I think virginia should get it over them. 20-1 in the ACC? How does that not get a 1 seed?

Their OOC was so bad. I've been thinking for a while they could max at as a 2, but if they do run the table in the tournament as well; then there is probably an argument there for them as a 1.

 

[Madbiker]

If UVa wins the ACCT they will be higher on the curve than Nova and placed in the east. If SU loses Sunday we can all forget these scenarios because we will be shipped to Siberia.

 

[Alsacs]

If UVa wins the ACCT they will be higher on the curve than Nova and placed in the east. If SU loses Sunday we can all forget these scenarios because we will be shipped to Siberia.

If Nova wins out and UVA wins out I think Nova is higher assuming both of them beat their top conference teams in the tournaments.
Nova has a better non-conference resume and played everyone home/home in conference while UVA only played one of the other top 3 ACC teams on the road and lost that game.

 

[Madbiker]

If Nova wins out and UVA wins out I think Nova is higher assuming both of them beat their top conference teams in the tournaments.
Nova has a better non-conference resume and played everyone home/home in conference while UVA only played one of the other top 3 ACC teams on the road and lost that game.

Nova has a better OOC with the KU win. But UVa has been so hot for so long the recency effect will be considered. For Uva to win out they will have to beat 2 of Duke/UNC/SU all better wins than anyone Nova will play in BE...even if they can avoid a 3rd thumping by a now stature diminished Creighton. We just have different views...always enjoy your reasoned posts.

 

[pearl31]

If UVa wins the ACCT they will be higher on the curve than Nova and placed in the east. If SU loses Sunday we can all forget these scenarios because we will be shipped to Siberia.

Not if we make hay in the ACCT (i.e., get to the champ game). If, for example, JG is held out of the FSU game and comes back healthy for the conf tourney.