ESPN Bubble Watch

[sabach]

says we should be in win or lose tomorrow. I tend to agree with this. But let's beat Miami just to make sure.

College Basketball Bubble Watch - Bubble Watch: Who can use Champ Week to secure a bid? - NCAA Men's Basketball - ESPN

 

[Frozen]

If SU beats Miami, is there a significant RPI rub from playing UNC on Thursday, even in a loss?

 

[sabach]

If SU beats Miami, is there a significant RPI rub from playing UNC on Thursday, even in a loss?

Probably since we took an RPI hit from beating GTech at home.

 

[Ryand877]

If SU beats Miami, is there a significant RPI rub from playing UNC on Thursday, even in a loss?

I can't remember specifics, but someone posted about this a couple weeks back. The post indicated there would not be a significant change if we play UNC Thursday. I wish I could find the post with the specifics.

 

[jncuse]

If SU beats Miami, is there a significant RPI rub from playing UNC on Thursday, even in a loss?

Per RPI Wizerd at RPIforecast.com. (After beating Miami, losing to UNC)

 

[orangenirvana]

I'm worried if we lose on Wednesday. As Palm said, no team has ever received an at-large bid with less than three road wins. It will completely be a toss up imo.

 

[pearl31]

I'm worried if we lose on Wednesday. As Palm said, no team has ever received an at-large bid with less than three road wins. It will completely be a toss up imo.

yep we'll then be depending on various results of other teams happening/not happening

 

[Eric15]

I'm worried if we lose on Wednesday.

Same. We're now the first 12 seed on Bracketmatrix. If we lose Weds it's going to be an extremely close call either way.

 

[Briancuse]

If SU beats Miami, is there a significant RPI rub from playing UNC on Thursday, even in a loss?

Who knows, I thought we would get a big bump from playing Lville at Lville, and we didn't, the rpi is so flawed

 

[HOFCeluck]

It's amazing with all the advanced stats out there we still rely so heavily on something as archaic as RPI.

 

[orangenirvana]

It's amazing with all the advanced stats out there we still rely so heavily on something as archaic as RPI.

Then don't. The committee sure doesn't.

 

[HOFCeluck]

Then don't. The committee sure doesn't.

Huh? I mean, I don't. I was under the impression the committee still looked at it to some extent. If they don't, then awesome.

 

[BuffOrange]

Then don't. The committee sure doesn't.

Bull. They say they don't and in the same sentence talk about Top 50 this'n'that. Whose 50 are they talking about? Not Jeff Sagarin's.

 

[orangenirvana]

Bull. They say they don't and in the same sentence talk about Top 50 this'n'that. Whose 50 are they talking about? Not Jeff Sagarin's.

Yeah, seems contradictory but they don't use it for judging individual teams. Like when they discuss Syracuse, no one is going to say "Yeah, but their RPI is 80." And who knows, maybe they will use the Sagarin instead of RPI for record vs. Top 25/50/100 this season. Not sure that makes a huge difference.

 

[sabach]

It's amazing with all the advanced stats out there we still rely so heavily on something as archaic as RPI.

Exactly. Especially when the RPI can be gamed. I mean how many teams that have better RPI's then us would be favored over us on a neutral court? I get that this is not the measure of who should get in the dance but RPI is stupid, even if supposedly they do not use it much anymore.

 

[shandeezy7]

Exactly. Especially when the RPI can be gamed. I mean how many teams that have better RPI's then us would be favored over us on a neutral court? I get that this is not the measure of who should get in the dance but RPI is stupid, even if supposedly they do not use it much anymore.

I posted about Nebraska in a separate thread last night, but I thought it was incredibly interesting that their RPI is only 17 slots below ours when they have a 12-18 record. Number 1 SOS but what good is that if you don't beat anyone? The RPI puts way too much value on who you play and where you play them than on who you beat.

 

[sabach]

I posted about Nebraska in a separate thread last night, but I thought it was incredibly interesting that their RPI is only 17 slots below ours when they have a 12-18 record. Number 1 SOS but what good is that if you don't beat anyone? The RPI puts way too much value on who you play and where you play them than on who you beat.

Losing a road game against a good team is better for RPI than winning at home against a bad team. That does not make any sense that it is better to lose. Our problem this year was losing at home to crappy teams which is the RPI nightmare. The RPI can be gamed.

 

[jordoo]

If SU beats Miami, is there a significant RPI rub from playing UNC on Thursday, even in a loss?

I'm actually sort of glad we play UNC if we beat Miami. Miami clearly puts us in the tourney and the UNC game is a nothing to lose everything to gain type of game. Even if we lose by 20 as you say we get an RPI bump which may wind up being a seed line. Plus we play basically 6.5 guys right now so going deep into the ACCT probably doesn't help us all that much in the big picture other than getting us a much more winnable first round NCAAT game. I already think we can beat any team in the 1st round since we aren't playing a protected seed.

 

[Halfmooncuse]

I'm worried if we lose on Wednesday. As Palm said, no team has ever received an at-large bid with less than three road wins. It will completely be a toss up imo.

It Still wont be a road win if we win

 

[orangenirvana]

It Still wont be a road win if we win

It's away from home. Hence, road win.

 

[CorduroyG]

It's away from home. Hence, road win.

its away from home. Hence, road win...unless its played on a neutral court. Hence, neutral court win.

 

[blust2i3d4]

Losing a road game against a good team is better for RPI than winning at home against a bad team.

Even worse than the two is to lose a bad team at home court. And SU did it twice (to Georgetown and St. Johns) this year.

 

[sabach]

its away from home. Hence, road win...unless its played on a neutral court. Hence, neutral court win.

But if it is played in the Western Hemisphere, is it ever counted as a road/neutral win for SU?

 

[SBU72]

I can understand some discounting of wins at home for OCS to reduce the effect of heavy home laden schedules, but why do it in conference. Since each team in a conference plays the same number of games home and away, then they should count equally. I mean, BC takes a hit for breaking a 2 year conference losing streak for beating a team that ends up 8th in the conference just because they play them at home? Not right.

 

[721Comstock]

From John Gasaway's Tuesday Truths article:

Tuesday Truths: Final reality

Expected ACC bids: 10 (North Carolina, Louisville, Florida State, Notre Dame, Virginia, Duke, Miami, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Wake Forest)

There was a moment earlier in the season when it appeared probable that one or more ACC teams would go into the NCAA tournament with sub-.500 records in conference play. That looks less likely now. It turned out Pittsburgh and NC State especially were not as good as anticipated. That plus another rebuilding year from Boston College was enough to provide a fund of 44 wins for the rest of the league. The result’s a fairly clean break in the standings (though not in the per-possession results) after Wake Forest at 9-9.

Heading into Championship Week, this therefore looks like a 10-bid league with a relatively low potential for bubble drama. The only things that could conceivably change what you’re hearing would be: 1) a loss in the first round for Wake to BC; or 2) a run to the title game by Georgia Tech.
Syracuse is likely safe even in the event of a big loss to Miami in the second round, but I wouldn’t recommend that the Orange test the hypothesis.

He thinks we're mostly in, but I agree - let's win vs The U, and not risk finding out what happens were we to lose that game.

This is also humorous:

Coaching arrivals/departures. NC State fired Mark Gottfried on February 16, but has allowed him to finish the season.
Was it really just 718 days ago that a relatively svelte BeeJay Anya was making life perfectly miserable for any Villanova player foolish enough to venture into the paint? The Wolfpack beat the Wildcats in the round of 32 that day, and everyone knew the sophomore would continue to develop and be a big part of an NC State resurgence, just like everyone knew Jay Wright was destined to keep falling short of the second weekend.
Life comes at you fast.

BeeJay = Mike Sweetney 2.0