ESPN's Gasaway (via Pomeroy) on SU's defensive rebounding

[pearl31]

Anybody see this "insider" piece posted today on espn.com? I'm not a subscriber, but in the tease they let you read, this nugget is included:

My colleague Ken Pomeroy has already called attention to the Orange's "awful" work on the defensive glass, and in his piece, Ken came up with an incredible stat. Over the past decade, no NCAA tournament games have been won by a team that is this bad at defensive rebounding.

That's quite the foreboding statistic. Anyone have access to the full article?

 

[Orangezoo]

much like the ppg and papg statistics dr% has to be looked at a bit more deeply. 2nd chance points do not show the disadantage that supposedly exists from our dr%. the number that should be looked at is the advantage we have in posessions every game.

 

[moqui]

can't cut and paste those pay-per-view articles, but the gist of it is that Gasaway thinks that Syracuse is a very powerful exception to the rule. He delves into various iterations of the points-per-possession statistics and concludes that the Syracuse defense is so good that even giving teams extra possessions via weak defensive rebounding don't hurt us as much as you'd expect. Even with the weak rebounding, SU's defensive PPP is 0.94, best in the Big East. When he partials out the effect of turnovers (as a way of imagining how we would do against a disciplined team that really values the ball), he finds a PPP of 1.23, not overly impressive, but still better than the Big East average of 1.26.

Gasaway concludes:

One of two things is about to happen. Either Syracuse will lose the last game of its 2011-12 season, or it'll win the national championship. (Another bold prediction, I know, but hear me out.) If the first scenario comes to pass, and the Orange lose that game because their opponents scooped up a tremendous number of offensive rebounds, then we'll be able to say this team's terrible defensive rebounding did spell its doom. But of course it's just as likely that Syracuse will lose such a game because it had an off shooting night, or the refs misunderstood the rules pertaining to backcourt violations, or any one of a number of things wholly unrelated to defensive rebounding.
And if the second scenario becomes reality, no one will care much about how well Boeheim's players performed on the defensive glass. Can a team really win it all while coming in at or below this particular Mendoza Line? Syracuse is about to give that question a fair test.

 

[upperdeck]

it just goes on and on about how bad we are and how simple it is to rebound 3's and we cant seem to figure it out .

I would like someone to actually review the shots and see how many times teams playing zone force bad contested shots and what perc of those rebounds each team gets.

 

[moqui]

it just goes on and on about how bad we are and how simple it is to rebound 3's and we cant seem to figure it out .

that does not sound anything like the article that I read

edit: OK, I see the issue. upperdeck is referring to the Pomeroy article, which is linked within the excerpt that Pearl131 posted.

I was reading the Gasaway article that portion is excerpted from. That's why it seems like we are commenting on two different articles - we are!

 

[pearl31]

thx Moqui

 

[pfister1]

But of course it's just as likely that Syracuse will lose such a game because it had an off shooting night, or the refs misunderstood the rules pertaining to backcourt violations, or any one of a number of things wholly unrelated to defensive rebounding.


Obviously, a reference to how last season ended. I wonder if the writer has an SU connection? You wouldn't expect the average writer to remember that play, that the refs got it wrong, and that it probably cost us that game.

 

[Knicks411]

Gasaway went to Illinois, or at least is an Illinois fan.

 

[Alsacs]

Most interesting portion I read is this
Did you know that Fab Melo 's block rate is nearly identical to that of Anthony Davis? It's true, and Big East opponents have made just 42.3 percent of their 2-point attempts against the Orange, third-lowest in the conference.

He basically concludes our 3 pt defense will determine our fate, and we cause a lot of turnovers which makeup for the problem rebounding.

 

[All4SU]

Anybody see this "insider" piece posted today on espn.com? I'm not a subscriber, but in the tease they let you read, this nugget is included:

My colleague Ken Pomeroy has already called attention to the Orange's "awful" work on the defensive glass, and in his piece, Ken came up with an incredible stat. Over the past decade, no NCAA tournament games have been won by a team that is this bad at defensive rebounding.

That's quite the foreboding statistic. Anyone have access to the full article?

And in 2003, they said you can't win in the tournament with freshmen.

 

[chlywtr]

And in 2003, they said you can't win in the tournament with freshmen.

tear down the walls of perception!!