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[QUOTE="Millhouse, post: 4350, member: 78"]
Here's another way to look at it.

In FCS games last year, we gave up 20.9 a game and scored 18.9. We're pretty fortunate that we were 6-5 in those games last year, a bill james type formula would flip it to 5-6 most years. I'm not saying we were lucky, I'm just saying it's not a record you should expect with these numbers.

We have one less FBS gimme this year. Let's assume we beat URI and have the same points allowed in FBS games. In order to get to 7-5 in FCS games (8-5 overall), we need to score 24 ppg in those FCS games.

In order to improve to 9-4 with the same points allowed, you have to score 28 per game in FBS games.

I sound like a wet blanket but I really mean that we should be happy to repeat last years results because we'd probably have to be much better to get back to 8-5.

doesn't work as great as the baseball formula because there are fewer games. had the defense done better against pitt and wash, the numbers would match the record more.
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