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Message: [QUOTE="OrangeFoo, post: 2924429, member: 210"] So I watch a lot of soccer and I am gearing up for one of the great rivalries in sport in about 90 minutes... Liverpool vs ManU In soccer it’s really hard to score goals because there is so much randomness in trying to kick a ball in a net from a long distance away when there is a goalie trying to stop the shot... instead of measuring an offense by goals scored they use a stat called expected goals which calculates how many goals an offense should score based on the quality of the chances created. My guess is that if we were to use that kind of stat, let’s call it expected buckets, for our offense we would rank near the bottom of d1 programs because we do very little to create quality shots. The first half last night was a perfect example of that... all 1:1 play with no sustainability. We were playing with fool’s gold and it bit us in the butt. You can knock Duke for recruiting and cheating all you want, but they had a plan to get quality shots and stuck with it, something we very rarely do these days. When I reflect on our hoops program and my frustration with it I think my biggest isssue with it is the inability to sustain a good offense becuase the system just isn’t there to consistently create quality shots. Expected buckets is also one of my main frustrations with our D... when teams know how to bust our zone they get a TON of quality shots and their expected buckets percentage is really high. We are just at the mercy of how well they shoot. The main difference between our O and D, however, is we make adjustments on D to reduce expected buckets, but we do nothing like that on offense but say shoot better. When you look at the football program... Coach Babers gets it and put an offense in that maximizes expected touchdowns. Whenever we interview for the next HC I hope expected buckets is a big part of the conversation for both offense and defense. [/QUOTE]

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