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Message: [QUOTE="IthacaMatt, post: 4934943, member: 405"] Well, it depends on what this season's goal is. If we want to make the NCAAs this year, Pitt on the road is a game we need to win. We haven't beaten any of the top teams we've faced, so winning a couple on the road versus rough "peers" competing for the same post season spot, well, we need this one. Our upcoming schedule now: @Pitt, Miami, Fla State, NC State (3 in a row at home), then @BC, @Wake, Louisville in the Dome. The next 7 games get us through the first week of February, and if you ask me, we have to do well in this stretch, because we have 3 ranked teams and 4 out of 6 on the road to close out the regular season. So, looking at these next 7 games, Miami has lost 2 out of 3, including to Louisville at home. We are a slight favorite against Miami, mostly based on the home floor, I would guess. Florida State has won 4 straight, and is sitting high in the league standings, but lost 4 straight earlier in the season, and ESPN says we have a 2/3 likelihood of beating them. Again, they may be over-estimating our home court advantage. NC State is going to be favored against us, they are 12-4 and 4-1 in conference, and played UNC fairly tough. Wake has won 10 out of 11, and it's on the road, so I am not counting on that one being a win, either. Louisville is still really bad, and have lost 7 out of 9. So that should be a win at home. That leaves @Pitt, Miami and NC State as our toss-up games. We can expect to win @BC and home vs. Louisville, and I expect to lose on the road at Wake and probably to Florida State. We are currently 11-5 (2-3). After the next 7 games, I see our range as 13-7 with 3 toss-ups. That's why Pitt away is an important game, and we have to win 1 out of 2 at home vs. Miami and Florida State. That would leave us 15-8 (6-6) with 8 games left in the regular season. Three likely losses to ranked teams, and the very real possibility of 4 losses in a row in the heart of February. I can see us probably finishing only 3-5 in that last 8 (Ga. Tech on the road would be an upset if we were to win it ...) Best case, we're looking at something like 19-12, and it could be a couple games worse. I don't think that's going to get us into the tournament this year, but it's a very solid year, with a first year coach, and some guys who transferred in who never got over their injuries. The wheels could have come off this year, but it looks we're going to get through the season in NIT quality shape, which is not bad for a first year coach following a Hall of Famer. If we harbor any hopes of the NCAA this year, we have to win @Pitt, @GaTech, Miami, Florida State, NC State, home vs. Notre Dame, Va. Tech & Louisville. That would give us a 10-5 finish, a couple decent road wins, and an overall record of 21-10. Win one or two at the Conference Tournament, and we might make it in as an 11 or a 12 seed. [/QUOTE]

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