cap2nine
Scout Team
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Why we’re better this year than last-
Yes Dion, Scoop, Melo and KJ are all gone and the critics keep reminding us that those were 4 of our top 6 scorers from last year. But, I still think we are better off this year and here’s why…
Basically, I feel we’ve gained more than we’ve lost. The voids left by KJ and Scoop have been filled with as good talent and ability, if not better. Kris leaves the way open for Fair and Southy. Reviewing last year’s stats, KJ’s pace was only about 3 ppg better than Fair’s (when calculating with balanced minutes) and was slightly behind Southerland’s pace. Both Fair and JS out performed Joseph in rebounds (on both ends), steals and blocked shots while conceding only about half as many turnovers. KJ did improve his range last season (something Fair has yet to prove) and was decent from behind the arc. But, James already has great range and just needs a little confidence and consistency. It’s very reasonable to believe that Fair and JS have made at least minimal improvements to their respective games since last year. And, let’s not forget, Joseph never made that leap, that we all thought and hoped he would, to become a player that could take over and dominate a game. That’s something that Fair or Southerland or BOTH now have the chance to do.
I’m a big Scoop fan! He sacrificed and dedicated himself to the team for 5 years and his personal improvements from Junior to Senior years are as big a reason for last year’s success as any. But, he never had the flat-out talent and ability of MCW. Michael has all the tools to be a very special player, and he’s focused, committed and very hungry for the opportunity. There is no doubt in my mind (and no slight to Scoop) that we’ve upgraded at the PG position.
As for the BE Defensive Player of the Year, that’s a little more difficult to replace. Melo’s shot blocking and uncanny ability, even willingness, to take a charge will surely be missed. Coleman won’t match those stats while anchoring our zone but he will almost certainly exceed Melo’s rebounding numbers and indubitably surpass all of Fab’s offensive numbers. DC may not scare people from penetrating the zone but he sure as heck will make the ground and the opposition tremble on the other end of the floor.
This brings me to Waiters. Dion is irreplaceable, so to speak. His dynamic ability is very rare for any team, let alone coming off the bench to add a spark and instant offense. We may have another candidate for BE 6th Man of the Year (Southerland) but Waiters still leaves a hole that’s hard to fill…
But then again, maybe we don’t have to. The major strengths of last year’s team were our defense and our depth. Our biggest challenges were rebounding and a lack of balance in our ½ court offense.
Last year’s depth, although real, never reached its full potential in my opinion. Fair came off the bench when Christmas got the inevitable “hook” and Rak’s 11 mpg was inflated by the games for which Melo was absent. Keita saw about the same minutes as Christmas and MCW received a little over half of each of them. So the true, productive depth came from JS and Dion. This year with an improved Christmas and Keita, big minutes for Southerland, the addition of Cooney and Grant waiting in the wings, I’d say our talented depth is very nearly as strong as last years.
Defensively I expect a small drop-off. Some decline in steals and easy transition points is almost certain. But this leads me to our upside…
DC and Christmas will provide a much more effective post/power game. Keita looks to be much quicker, stronger and more confident in his actions and should contribute high-quality minutes either as a breather or out of necessity. Southy, Fair, MCW and Triche are all very capable of getting to the rim and forcing fouls along the way. Triche, James, MCW and now Cooney will all keep defenses honest and could heat up at any time from 3.
There’s no doubt about it, this year’s team is more balanced and, as a group, far superior on the offensive end. Perhaps a bit reminiscent of v. 2010?
I’ve tried to base my analysis on stats, history and realistic, conservative projections and as little as possible on our 2 exhibition games. The bottom line, as I see it, is a MUCH improved offensive and rebounding team with the cost of a less dominant defense, fewer steals and a little less transition. I guess we’ll see in just a couple hours if we’re off on the right foot.
Here’s to the beginning of another great year for the Orange, and a strong finish in Atlanta!!
Yes Dion, Scoop, Melo and KJ are all gone and the critics keep reminding us that those were 4 of our top 6 scorers from last year. But, I still think we are better off this year and here’s why…
Basically, I feel we’ve gained more than we’ve lost. The voids left by KJ and Scoop have been filled with as good talent and ability, if not better. Kris leaves the way open for Fair and Southy. Reviewing last year’s stats, KJ’s pace was only about 3 ppg better than Fair’s (when calculating with balanced minutes) and was slightly behind Southerland’s pace. Both Fair and JS out performed Joseph in rebounds (on both ends), steals and blocked shots while conceding only about half as many turnovers. KJ did improve his range last season (something Fair has yet to prove) and was decent from behind the arc. But, James already has great range and just needs a little confidence and consistency. It’s very reasonable to believe that Fair and JS have made at least minimal improvements to their respective games since last year. And, let’s not forget, Joseph never made that leap, that we all thought and hoped he would, to become a player that could take over and dominate a game. That’s something that Fair or Southerland or BOTH now have the chance to do.
I’m a big Scoop fan! He sacrificed and dedicated himself to the team for 5 years and his personal improvements from Junior to Senior years are as big a reason for last year’s success as any. But, he never had the flat-out talent and ability of MCW. Michael has all the tools to be a very special player, and he’s focused, committed and very hungry for the opportunity. There is no doubt in my mind (and no slight to Scoop) that we’ve upgraded at the PG position.
As for the BE Defensive Player of the Year, that’s a little more difficult to replace. Melo’s shot blocking and uncanny ability, even willingness, to take a charge will surely be missed. Coleman won’t match those stats while anchoring our zone but he will almost certainly exceed Melo’s rebounding numbers and indubitably surpass all of Fab’s offensive numbers. DC may not scare people from penetrating the zone but he sure as heck will make the ground and the opposition tremble on the other end of the floor.
This brings me to Waiters. Dion is irreplaceable, so to speak. His dynamic ability is very rare for any team, let alone coming off the bench to add a spark and instant offense. We may have another candidate for BE 6th Man of the Year (Southerland) but Waiters still leaves a hole that’s hard to fill…
But then again, maybe we don’t have to. The major strengths of last year’s team were our defense and our depth. Our biggest challenges were rebounding and a lack of balance in our ½ court offense.
Last year’s depth, although real, never reached its full potential in my opinion. Fair came off the bench when Christmas got the inevitable “hook” and Rak’s 11 mpg was inflated by the games for which Melo was absent. Keita saw about the same minutes as Christmas and MCW received a little over half of each of them. So the true, productive depth came from JS and Dion. This year with an improved Christmas and Keita, big minutes for Southerland, the addition of Cooney and Grant waiting in the wings, I’d say our talented depth is very nearly as strong as last years.
Defensively I expect a small drop-off. Some decline in steals and easy transition points is almost certain. But this leads me to our upside…
DC and Christmas will provide a much more effective post/power game. Keita looks to be much quicker, stronger and more confident in his actions and should contribute high-quality minutes either as a breather or out of necessity. Southy, Fair, MCW and Triche are all very capable of getting to the rim and forcing fouls along the way. Triche, James, MCW and now Cooney will all keep defenses honest and could heat up at any time from 3.
There’s no doubt about it, this year’s team is more balanced and, as a group, far superior on the offensive end. Perhaps a bit reminiscent of v. 2010?
I’ve tried to base my analysis on stats, history and realistic, conservative projections and as little as possible on our 2 exhibition games. The bottom line, as I see it, is a MUCH improved offensive and rebounding team with the cost of a less dominant defense, fewer steals and a little less transition. I guess we’ll see in just a couple hours if we’re off on the right foot.
Here’s to the beginning of another great year for the Orange, and a strong finish in Atlanta!!
