Final Four Teams

[SWC75]

Here is a post I made prior to the 2011 NCAA Tournament:

Here are the Final Four teams since the NCAA tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, listed in order of the champion, the runner-up, the semifinalist that lost to the champion and the semi-finalist who lost to the runner-up. Next to them is the number of losses they had coming into the tournament and at the end is the total number of pre-tournament losses for the four teams.


1985 Villanova 10 Georgetown 2 Memphis 3 St. John’s 3 = 18

1986 Louisville 7 Duke 2 LSU 11 Kansas 3 = 23

1987 Indiana 4 Syracuse 6 UNLV 1 Providence 8 = 19

1988 Kansas 11 Oklahoma 3 Duke 6 Arizona 2 = 22

1989 Michigan 7 Seton Hall 6 Duke 7 Illinois 4 = 24

1990 UNLV 5 Duke 8 Georgia Tech 6 Arkansas 4 = 23

1991 Duke 7 Kansas 7 UNLV 0 No. Carolina 5 = 19

1992 Duke 2 Michigan 8 Indiana 6 Cincinnati 4 = 20

1993 No. Carolina 4 Michigan 4 Kansas 6 Kentucky 3 = 17

1994 Arkansas 3 Duke 5 Arizona 5 Florida 7 = 20

1995 UCLA 2 Arkansas 6 Oklahoma St. 9 No. Carolina 5 = 22

1996 Kentucky 2 Syracuse 8 Massachusetts 1 Miss State 7 = 18

1997 Arizona 9 Kentucky 4 No. Carolina 6 Minnesota 3 = 22

1998 Kentucky 4 Utah 3 Stanford 4 Utah 3 = 14

1999 Connecticut 2 Duke 1 Ohio State 8 Michigan St. 4 = 15

2000 Michigan St. 7 Florida 7 Wisconsin 13 No. Carolina 13 = 40

2001 Duke 4 Arizona 7 Maryland 10 Michigan St. 4 = 25

2002 Maryland 4 Indiana 11 Kansas 3 Oklahoma 4 = 22

2003 Syracuse 5 Kansas 7 Texas 6 Marquette 5 = 23

2004 Connecticut 6 Georgia Tech 9 Duke 5 Oklahoma St. 3 = 23

2005 No. Carolina 4 Illinois 1 Michigan St. 6 Louisville 4 = 15

2006 Florida 6 UCLA 6 Geo. Mason 8 LSU 8 = 28

2007 Florida 5 Ohio State 3 UCLA 5 Georgetown 6 = 19

2008 Kansas 3 Memphis 1 No. Carolina 2 UCLA 3 = 9

2009 No. Carolina 4 Michigan St. 6 Villanova 7 Connecticut 4 = 21

2010 Duke 5 Butler 4 Michigan St. 8 W. Virginia 6 = 23


Summary points:


- The average Final Four team has had 5 losses going into the tournament. So has the average champion and the average runner-up and the average semi-finalist.


- The Final Four team with the fewest losses has won the title only 3 times, 7 times if you include teams tied for the fewest losses. The Final Four team with the most losses has won the title 3 times, as well, 7 times if you include teams tied for the most losses. I guess once you get that far it isn’t what you‘ve done but what you are going to do next that counts.


- The break-down of losses by Final Four participants goes like this:


0 losses - one team (0.96%) - and they didn’t win (0.00%).

1 loss- five teams (4.81%) - none of them won (0.00%).

2 losses- 8 teams (7.69%) - four of them won, (50.00%).

3 losses- 14 teams (13.46%) - two of them won (14.29%).

4 losses- 19 teams (18.26%) - seven of them won (36.84%).

5 losses- 11 teams (10.58%) - four of them won (36.36%).

6 losses- 16 teams (15.38%) - two of them won (12.50%).

7 losses- 12 teams (11.54%) - four of them won (33.33%).

8 losses- 8 teams (7.69%) - none of them won (00.00%).

9 losses- 3 teams (2.88%) - one of them won (33.3%)

10 losses- 2 teams (1.93%) - one of them won (50.00%)

11 losses- 3 teams (2.88%) - one of them won (33.3%)

12 losses- 0 teams (0.00%)

13 losses- 2 teams (in the same year- 1.93%) -neither own (0.00%)

14 or more losses- 0 teams (0.00%)


Obviously there are few teams with fewer than 2 losses in the Final Four because there are few teams with fewer than 2 losses at the end of a NCAA basketball season. But it is interesting that of 6 such teams, none of them won the national title. And teams with 7 losses, (like Syracuse) are as likely to win the national championship as teams with 2 losses (like Ohio State)- 4 times each. Of course that’s a little deceiving. The percentage of all teams with 7 losses in the tournament making the Final Four is surely less than the percentage of all teams with 2 losses and the percentage of teams with 2 losses that make the Final Four and then win the national championship, (50.00%) is higher than the percentage of 7 loss Final Four teams that win the championship, (33.33%).


- The real message is that teams that have had a bumpy ride during the regular season can still win the national championship and often do. Four teams with as many losses as Syracuse this year have won the title and three other teams with more losses have done so. But the last of any of those teams was the 2000 Michigan State team. The national champions since them have averaged 4.6 losses.


Syracuse seems an unlikely candidate to go all the way, (they may not make it out of the first weekend), but it’s not out of the question.

Here is an update:

2011 Connecticut 9, Butler 9, Kentucky 8, Virginia Commonwealth 11 = 37

2012 Kentucky 2, Kansas 6, Ohio State 7, Louisville 9 = 24

2013 Louisville 5, Michigan 7, Wichita State State 8, Syracuse 9 = 29

The only year to top 2011 for the most losses by Final Four teams was 2000 and 2013 is #3 on the list. The average for these three years is 30, 7.5 losses per team. The winners have had 9, 2 and 5 losses, an average of 5.33.

The simple fact is, the concept of an all-conquering, highlight film season leading to a national championship is almost obsolete. Final Four teams and even national championship teams have slumps and injuries, jsut as we have had. The key is to bottom out and get healthy before the tournament so you can get better as your opposition gets better, to be good when it really counts.

 

[tbonezone]

i can remember lots of chatter in 1996 about reseeding the final 4 becuz some people wanted to see kentucky/umass in the final.

 

[SWC75]

How important is seeding? In the same post I came up these numbers:

I decided to look at Final Four seedings since the tournament first began seeding teams in 1979:


1979 Pennsylvania (9) Michigan State (2) Indiana State (1) DePaul (2) Total: 14

1980 Iowa (5) Louisville (2) Purdue (6) UCLA (8) Total: 21

1981 Virginia (1) North Carolina (2) Indiana (3) LSU (1) Total: 7

1982 North Carolina (1) Houston (6) Louisville (3) Georgetown (1) Total: 11

1983 Georgia (4) North Carolina State (6) Louisville (1) Houston (1) Total: 12

1984 Virginia (7) Houston (2) Kentucky (1) Georgetown (1) Total: 11

1985 Georgetown (1) St. John’s (1) Villanova (8) Memphis (2) Total: 12

1986 Duke (1) Kansas (1) LSU (11) Louisville (2) Total: 15

1987 Syracuse (2) Providence (6) Indiana (1) UNLV (1) Total: 10

1988 Duke (2) Kansas (6) Oklahoma (1) Arizona (1) Total: 10

1989 Duke (2) Seton Hall (3) Michigan (3) Illinois (1) Total: 9

1990 Duke (3) Arkansas (4) Georgia Tech (4) UNLV (1) Total: 12

1991 North Carolina (1) Kansas (3) Duke (2) UNLV (1) Total: 7

1992 Duke (1) Indiana (2) Cincinnati (4) Michigan (2) Total: 9

1993 North Carolina (1) Kansas (2) Kentucky (1) Michigan (1) Total: 5

1994 Florida (3) Duke (2) Arkansas (1) Arizona (2) Total: 8

1995 Oklahoma State (4) UCLA (1) North Carolina (2) Arkansas (2) Total: 9

1996 Massachusetts (1) Kentucky (1) Mississippi State (5) Syracuse (4) Total: 11

1997 North Carolina (1) Arizona (4) Minnesota (1) Kentucky (1) Total: 7

1998 North Carolina (1) Utah (3) Kentucky (2) Stanford (3) Total: 9

1999 Duke (1) Michigan State (1) Ohio State (4) Connecticut (1) Total: 7

2000 Florida (5) North Carolina (8) Michigan State (1) Wisconsin (8) Total: 22

2001 Duke (1) Maryland (3) Michigan State (1) Arizona (2) Total: 7

2002 Maryland (1) Kansas (1) Indiana (5) Oklahoma (2) Total: 9

2003 Syracuse (3) Texas (1) Marquette (3) Kansas (2) Total: 9

2004 Oklahoma State (2) Georgia Tech (3) Duke (1) Connecticut (2) Total: 8

2005 North Carolina (1) Michigan State (5) Illinois (1) Louisville (4) Total: 11

2006 George Mason (11) Florida (3) LSU (4) UCLA (2) Total: 20

2007 Georgetown (2) Ohio State (1) Florida (1) UCLA (2) Total: 6

2008 North Carolina (1) Kansas (1) Memphis (1) UCLA (1) Total: 4

2009 Villanova (3) North Carolina (1) Michigan State (2) Connecticut (1) Total: 7

2010 West Virginia (2) Duke (1) Michigan State (5) Butler (5) Total: 13

Update:

2011 Kentucky (4) Connecticut (3) VCU (11) Butler (8) Total: 26

2012 Kentucky (1) Kansas (2) Ohio State (2) Louisville (4) Total: 9

2013 Louisville (1) Michigan (4) Syracuse (4) Wichita State (9) Total: 18

That's 35 years. The average Final Four has had a combined seeding of 11. The average Final Four team has been a 3 seed. The average winner has been. The average champion has been a 2 seed.

The overall numbers:

1 seeds have made it to the Final Four 55 times and won the national championship 20 times

2 seeds have made it to the Final Four 31 times and won the national championship 6 times

3 seeds have made it to the Final Four 16 times and won the national championship 5 times

4 seeds have made it to the Final Four 14 times and won the national championship 1 time

5 seeds have made it to the Final Four 7 times and won the national championship 0 times

6 seeds have made it to the Final Four 5 times and won the national championship 2 times

7 seeds have made it to the Final Four 1 time and won the national championship 0 times

8 seeds have made it to the Final Four 5 times and won the national championship 1 time

9 seeds have made it to the Final Four 2 times and won the national championship 0 times

10 seeds have made it to the Final Four 0 times and won the national championship 0 times

11 seeds have made it to the Final Four 3 times and won the national championship 0 times

Nobody below an 11 seed has made it to the Final Four.

It obviously makes a difference whether you a 1 seed and whether you are a 2 seed. 3 seeds have done a bit better in making it to the Final Four than 4 seeds but it's a small difference. They've done a much better job of winning the title. if you are below a 4 seed, you are along shot to make it to the final weekend and a longer shot to cut down the nets.

The differences in those seedings may in part be due to the differences in who they would play but it's most just about how good the team with the high seed is, (such that they were able to obtain that seed) and how well they are playing when it counts.

We will go into the NCAA tournament with a minimum of 6 losses and will be at least a 4 seed, probably a 3 at worst. That means that if we are fully healthy, we've got a legitimate chance of making the Final Four and winning it all, even if things are looking bleak at the moment.

 

[OrangeSky]

Good analysis. That's all very interesting, and gives me hope, but I'd feel better if our losses were scattered throughout the season rather than all concentrated at the end. That makes it feel like we're crashing and burning.

 

[DallasCuse]

i can remember lots of chatter in 1996 about reseeding the final 4 becuz some people wanted to see kentucky/umass in the final.

Yeah, I remember a lot of talking heads pushing for this. Billy Pecker comes to mind mostly. He thought UMass would give Kentucky a great game (WRONG) and Kentucky would absolutely destroy us. Wrong again!