According to this (
Syracuse Orange) we only have a 17% chance to make the tournament. However, getting 21 wins shoots it up to 54% and 22 is 84%, with 23 wins being a near lock to make it at 97%. So the question is, at 5-4, can we get to 22 wins? That means we go 17-5 the rest of the way...oof ! Well, our ACC schedule is fairly weak considering...
Must wins:
Oakland
North Florida
Niagara
ND (H)
VaTech (H)
BC (H)
Pittsburgh (H)
Wake (H)
GaTech (H)
BC (A)
Well look at that! We take care of all lower tier ACC teams at home, that gives us 10 wins, so we need to find 7 more
Need to play over .500
Georgetown (A)
VaTech (A)
ND (A)
Clemson (A)
NC State (H)
Pittsburgh (A)
Miami (A)
Obviously we’ll need road wins at some point, GTown being huge for OOC reasons. If we get 9 or 10 wins from the first group, we’ll be ok going 5-2 or 4-3 here. And really Miami and Clemson aren’t that good, but in this group because they’re on the road
The Big Boys
Virginia (A)
Duke (H)
FSU (A)
Louisville (A)
UNC (H)
2-3 would be great, but 1-4 seems neccessary.
KenPom has us finishing 17-14, so we need to most likely win an additional 5 games that we aren’t favored in. It’s really important that we sweep ND, GaTech and Pitt instead of splitting with them. We need to at least split with VaTech and split the Clemson/NC State games. Would the committee let us in with 23 wins if we’re 0-5 vs the ACC big boys? I think so...but we need to get at least 1 win from that group. The scary part is looking at the schedule, it’s very easy to find 5 more losses. Obviously if we win 20 games but win 2 from the big boy section we’re probably ok too, but at the MOST we can only afford to lose 7 more games, max.
