Florida State, Syracuse and the ACC

[SWC75]

Florida State keeps winning but isn't impressing anyone with the manner in which they do it expect they seem to have a knack for pulling games out of the fire. It's a far cry from last season, when they were blowing everybody's doors off.

Syracuse was winning, sometimes, last year and we scrapped enough wins to get to a bowl game and win it, although considering the nature of our losses, it seemed like a false postive. This year we've had a lot of injuries and we're getting pounded into the floor like a nail with 8 losses in our last nine games. But it's more than the injuries. And maybe it's more than coaching incompetence. I wonder if this conference is just tougher than it was last year. Tougher for us and tougher for Florida State. That makes it hard for them blow teams away and makes it less forgiving for a dysfunctional team like Syracuse.

I decided to look at last year's ACC games against Power Five level teams and compare it to this year's. The first problem is that there's so few of them. The schools have gotten smart, (if timid) and copied the SEC by playing a lot of mid-majors and small college teams. The second is that a lot of them are against Notre Dame, an ex-officio member of the ACC. A third is that one of the 2014 games is our game against Maryland, who was an ACC member last year and is a Big Ten member this year. A fourth is that Lousiville was not in the conference last year.

But let's look at the tea leaves anyway to see if they have a story to tell.

2013
Florida State beat Florida 37-7 and Auburn 34-31
Clemson beat Georgia 38-35, lost to South Carolina 17-31
Maryland beat West Virginia 37-0
Boston College lost to USC 7-35 and Arizona 19-42
Syracuse lost to Penn State 17-23 and Northwestern 27-48, beat Minnesota 21-17
Wake Forest lost to Vanderbilt 21-23
Georgia Tech lost to BYU 20-38, Georgia 34-41 and Mississippi 17-25
North Carolina lost to South Carolina 10-27
Duke lost to Texas A&M 48-52
Virginia beat BYU 19-16, lost to Oregon 10-59
Miami beat Florida 21-16, lost to Louisville 9-36
Virginia Tech lost to Alabama 10-35 and UCLA 12-42
Total: 7 wins 15 losses

2014
Florida State beat Oklahoma State 37-31 and Miami 31-27 (upcoming: Florida)
Clemson lost to Georgia 21-45 (upcoming: South Carolina)
Louisville beat Notre Dame 31-28 (upcoming: Kentucky)
Boston College beat USC 37-31
Syracuse lost to Maryland 20-34 and Notre Dame 15-31
Georgia Tech (upcoming: Georgia)
North Carolina lost to Notre Dame 43-50
Duke beat Kansas 41-3
Virginia lost to UCLA 20-28 and BYU 33-41
Pittsburgh lost to Iowa 20-24
Miami lost to Nebraska 31-41
Virginia Tech beat Ohio State 35-21
Also upcoming: The bowl games
Total so far: 6 wins, 8 losses

I'm not sure how conclusive that is but I do think that the middle of the conference is significantly stronger than it was last year, which makes it less intimidated by Florida State and less forgiving for us.

 

[AccuRater]

Florida State keeps winning but isn't impressing anyone with the manner in which they do it expect they seem to have a knack for pulling games out of the fire. It's a far cry from last season, when they were blowing everybody's doors off.

Syracuse was winning, sometimes, last year and we scrapped enough wins to get to a bowl game and win it, although considering the nature of our losses, it seemed like a false postive. This year we've had a lot of injuries and we're getting pounded into the floor like a nail with 8 losses in our last nine games. But it's more than the injuries. And maybe it's more than coaching incompetence. I wonder if this conference is just tougher than it was last year. Tougher for us and tougher for Florida State. That makes it hard for them blow teams away and makes it less forgiving for a dysfunctional team like Syracuse.

I decided to look at last year's ACC games against Power Five level teams and compare it to this year's. The first problem is that there's so few of them. The schools have gotten smart, (if timid) and copied the SEC by playing a lot of mid-majors and small college teams. The second is that a lot of them are against Notre Dame, an ex-officio member of the ACC. A third is that one of the 2014 games is our game against Maryland, who was an ACC member last year and is a Big Ten member this year. A fourth is that Lousiville was not in the conference last year.

But let's look at the tea leaves anyway to see if they have a story to tell.

2013
Florida State beat Florida 37-7 and Auburn 34-31
Clemson beat Georgia 38-35, lost to South Carolina 17-31
Maryland beat West Virginia 37-0
Boston College lost to USC 7-35 and Arizona 19-42
Syracuse lost to Penn State 17-23 and Northwestern 27-48, beat Minnesota 21-17
Wake Forest lost to Vanderbilt 21-23
Georgia Tech lost to BYU 20-38, Georgia 34-41 and Mississippi 17-25
North Carolina lost to South Carolina 10-27
Duke lost to Texas A&M 48-52
Virginia beat BYU 19-16, lost to Oregon 10-59
Miami beat Florida 21-16, lost to Louisville 9-36
Virginia Tech lost to Alabama 10-35 and UCLA 12-42
Total: 7 wins 15 losses

2014
Florida State beat Oklahoma State 37-31 and Miami 31-27 (upcoming: Florida)
Clemson lost to Georgia 21-45 (upcoming: South Carolina)
Louisville beat Notre Dame 31-28 (upcoming: Kentucky)
Boston College beat USC 37-31
Syracuse lost to Maryland 20-34 and Notre Dame 15-31
Georgia Tech (upcoming: Georgia)
North Carolina lost to Notre Dame 43-50
Duke beat Kansas 41-3
Virginia lost to UCLA 20-28 and BYU 33-41
Pittsburgh lost to Iowa 20-24
Miami lost to Nebraska 31-41
Virginia Tech beat Ohio State 35-21
Also upcoming: The bowl games
Total so far: 6 wins, 8 losses

I'm not sure how conclusive that is but I do think that the middle of the conference is significantly stronger than it was last year, which makes it less intimidated by Florida State and less forgiving for us.

Damn! I love this type of analysis.

 

[Crusty]

Florida State keeps winning but isn't impressing anyone with the manner in which they do it expect they seem to have a knack for pulling games out of the fire. It's a far cry from last season, when they were blowing everybody's doors off.

Syracuse was winning, sometimes, last year and we scrapped enough wins to get to a bowl game and win it, although considering the nature of our losses, it seemed like a false postive. This year we've had a lot of injuries and we're getting pounded into the floor like a nail with 8 losses in our last nine games. But it's more than the injuries. And maybe it's more than coaching incompetence. I wonder if this conference is just tougher than it was last year. Tougher for us and tougher for Florida State. That makes it hard for them blow teams away and makes it less forgiving for a dysfunctional team like Syracuse.

I decided to look at last year's ACC games against Power Five level teams and compare it to this year's. The first problem is that there's so few of them. The schools have gotten smart, (if timid) and copied the SEC by playing a lot of mid-majors and small college teams. The second is that a lot of them are against Notre Dame, an ex-officio member of the ACC. A third is that one of the 2014 games is our game against Maryland, who was an ACC member last year and is a Big Ten member this year. A fourth is that Lousiville was not in the conference last year.

But let's look at the tea leaves anyway to see if they have a story to tell.

2013
Florida State beat Florida 37-7 and Auburn 34-31
Clemson beat Georgia 38-35, lost to South Carolina 17-31
Maryland beat West Virginia 37-0
Boston College lost to USC 7-35 and Arizona 19-42
Syracuse lost to Penn State 17-23 and Northwestern 27-48, beat Minnesota 21-17
Wake Forest lost to Vanderbilt 21-23
Georgia Tech lost to BYU 20-38, Georgia 34-41 and Mississippi 17-25
North Carolina lost to South Carolina 10-27
Duke lost to Texas A&M 48-52
Virginia beat BYU 19-16, lost to Oregon 10-59
Miami beat Florida 21-16, lost to Louisville 9-36
Virginia Tech lost to Alabama 10-35 and UCLA 12-42
Total: 7 wins 15 losses

2014
Florida State beat Oklahoma State 37-31 and Miami 31-27 (upcoming: Florida)
Clemson lost to Georgia 21-45 (upcoming: South Carolina)
Louisville beat Notre Dame 31-28 (upcoming: Kentucky)
Boston College beat USC 37-31
Syracuse lost to Maryland 20-34 and Notre Dame 15-31
Georgia Tech (upcoming: Georgia)
North Carolina lost to Notre Dame 43-50
Duke beat Kansas 41-3
Virginia lost to UCLA 20-28 and BYU 33-41
Pittsburgh lost to Iowa 20-24
Miami lost to Nebraska 31-41
Virginia Tech beat Ohio State 35-21
Also upcoming: The bowl games
Total so far: 6 wins, 8 losses

I'm not sure how conclusive that is but I do think that the middle of the conference is significantly stronger than it was last year, which makes it less intimidated by Florida State and less forgiving for us.

Good post. While I agree with the ACC has gotten stronger this year, I think FSU is clearly not as good as last year's team.

 

[Stern]

To me FSU looks bored in some of these games this year. They really do. It looks like they are going through the motions at times.

 

[orange79]

What I wouldn't give to be an 'unimpressive' 11-0

 

[Madbiker]

So how much $$ does SU get if FSU makes the playoff?

 

[SWC75]

Damn! I love this type of analysis.

And I did it in my pajamas!

 

[Chris02M]

So how much $$ does SU get if FSU makes the playoff?

best I could find:
In 2012, ESPN reportedly paid about $7.3 billion over 12 years for broadcasting rights to all seven games, an average of about $608 million per year. That includes $215 million per year which was already committed to the Rose, Sugar and Orange bowls,[14] plus $470–475 million annually for the rest of the playoff package.[61] By comparison, the most recent contract with the BCS had paid almost $2 billion over four years — $495 million per year for five games.[14]
The average revenue to the new playoff system over 12 years will be about $500 million per year. After $125–150 million in expenses, the Power Five conferences will split about 75 percent of the remaining money, for an approximate average payout of $250 million a year ($50 million per league) over the life of the contract. The mid-major "Group of Five" conferences will get around 25 percent, about $90 million a year ($18 million per league). Notre Dame will receive around one percent, about $3.5-4 million, and other FBS independents get about 0.5 percent of the deal.[62][63]
Extra revenue will go to conferences in contracts with the Rose, Sugar, and Orange bowls, which split revenue 50/50 between their participating leagues.[62] In non-semifinal years, the Rose Bowl's TV revenue would be divided between the Big Ten and Pac-12 conferences; likewise, the Sugar Bowl and Orange Bowl revenue to its participant conferences. When those bowls are semifinal games, the money will be distributed by the playoff system to all FBS conferences.[14] ESPN has paid about $80 million a year each for the Rose and Sugar bowls over 12 years. The Orange Bowl deal is worth $55 million per year.[64] For example, in a non-semifinal year, the Big Ten could receive about $90 million (half of its $80 million Rose Bowl deal plus about $50 million from the playoff system).[62]
Conferences will receive an additional $6 million each year for each team it places in the semifinals and $4 million for a team in one of the three at-large bowls; Notre Dame receives the same amount in either scenario. No additional money will be awarded for reaching the championship game.[62]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/College_Football_Playoff#Revenue

 

[Chris02M]

so 6mil