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[QUOTE="svennyi, post: 61390, member: 390"]
Fanfan,
I was about to post these stats today.  I am glad to see another FO fan.

I follow the FEI metric on Football Outsiders quite a bit.  Essentially, the FEI metric adjusts for opponent strength and doesn't count statistics against FCS schools or garbage-time drives (there is a specific time/score classification).

I think they have Syracuse pegged.  The only way the Syracuse offense currently has success is with sustained drives, so with SU ranking high in methodical offense (10+ plays) it makes sense.  Against West Virginia, the score was so high because our 3rd down conversions were great and we were able to sustain drives.  When we don't convert, we lack the explosiveness to stretch defenses and score.  In fact, we are one of the worst in the country (110th out of 120).

Defensiviely, Syracuse scores 32nd overall but a look behind the numbers shows a worse story:
* 70th on First Down yards allowed
* 65th in available yards allowed
* 80th in explosive drives allowed (avg of 10+ yds/play)
* 90th in methodical drives allowed (10+ plays)
* 84th in value drives (start in own end and get to at least opp 30 yd-line)

What saves the defense is the opponent adjustment.  We have played the 29th toughest schedule when it comes to offenses.

Before the West Virginia game, Syracuse was ranked 63rd and predicted 7 wins.  The West Virginia game was an aberration which shot them to 33rd.  I think mid 40s to 60s is probably where we realistically stand at the end of the year.

The good news is that Syracuse has the 70th hardest schedule down the stretch, so the toughest part is behind us
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