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Message: [QUOTE="SWC75, post: 3754152, member: 289"] A dozen years ago we were coming off a stretch of two NCAA one-and-dones and two NIT years, the second of which ended with a blown 24 lead in the Dome to UMASS- the second time they’d beaten us there. (Seemingly), everyone’s diagnosis and solution was that “the game had passed Jim Boeheim by” and that we had to “ease him into retirement”. The new coach would solve his problems and have none of his own. I decided at that time to look at occasions when a long-term successful coach leaves the job: how does his winning percentage compare to his successors? If it’s no significantly better, and certainly if it’s worse, the fans are likely to complain about the new guy even more, (and the complainers will probably be the same fans who wanted the legendary coach to move on). At that time I decided to look at the top 25 college basketball and football coaches with the most wins, (this wasn’t long after Paul Pasquloni, our second winningest football coach was fired and replaced with our losingest football coach). I also delved into their stories, who replaced them, what their resume was, etc. I found that 84% of the time the next guy had a worse record and every category of new coaches, (internal promotion, alum, had head coaching experience elsewhere, came from the pros, etc.) as a group had a worse record than the legend that preceded them, (although having head coaching experience in college was a better predictor of success than the others). I’ve never updated it because I assumed the results would be similar. We had a great stretch following that study, going 177-42 from 2009-14, (29.5-7 per year), and the complaints receded. It was a good thing Boeheim hadn’t retired. Now the retirement bell is being rung again. We went on probation. We’ve had a series of ‘bubble’-type teams, (broadly defined: double figure losses on selection Sunday). This year we lost our starting center 4 minutes into the season. Our schedule got cut down and reconstructed and then shot full of holes by Covid. We wound up without the early season blow-out games where everybody gets to play and having to play most of our tough games on the road. The conference was down. It all produced a dearth of Quad One game and a dearth of victories in them. We’re playing a series of teams that seem assembled to take advantage of our weaknesses and are likely to end the regular season with a discouraging losing streak with little optimism for what might be accomplished in a post season, (which will likely end in the NIT). The solution is the same: get rid of Boeheim. The next guy will fix everything, (especially if he’s the guy we like for the job). It seems like time to redo this study. I was looking for a list of the winningest college basketball coaches and came across this: [URL unfurl="true"]https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2019-07-29/mens-di-college-basketball-coaches-most-wins[/URL] I looked over that list and decided to base the study simply on that. I also decided to keep it simple because I wanted to do this quickly: I’ll just look at the coach’s winning percentage at the school for which he had the longest tenure, (if that’s a tie I’ll use his winning percentage at those schools to break the tie), and then look at the winning percentage at that school of his immediate successor, (which I’m getting from Wikipedia and Sports Reference.com). I won’t get into the backstory and analysis I did in 2008. I’m excluding interim coaches as “successors”. Coaches still coaching at their longest tenure are, of course excluded: they have no successor yet. Where a coach has more than one period at the same school, they will be treated as separate tenures. The cases where the successor had a higher winning percentage are in bold. Bob Knight was .735 at Indiana. His successor, Mike Davis was .593 = -142 points Jim Calhoun was .720 at Connecticut. His successor, Kevin Ollie was .551 = -169 points Dean Smith was .776 at North Carolina. His successor, Bill Guthridge was .740 = -36 points Adolph Rupp was .822 at Kentucky. His successor, Joe B. Hall was .748 = -74 points Jim Phelan was .613 at Mount St. Mary’s. His successor, Milan Brown was .442 = -171 points [B]Rollie Massimino was .596 at Villanova. His successor, Steve Lappas was .613 = +17 points[/B] Eddie Sutton was .709 at Oklahoma State. His successor, Sean Sutton was .573 = -136 points [B]Rick Byrd was .673 at Belmont. His successor, Casey Alexander is .833 = +160 points[/B] Lefty Driesell was .686 at Maryland. His successor, Bob Wade was .419 = -267 points Lute Olson was .735 at Arizona. His successor, Kevin O’Neill was .559 = -176 points Lou Henson was .654 at Illinois. His successor, Lon Kruger was .628 = -26 points Bo Ryan was .737 at Wisconsin. His successor, Greg Gard is .639 = -98 points [B]Ed Diddle was .715 at Western Kentucky. His successor, Johnny Oldham was .781 = +66 points[/B] Hank Iba was .673 at Oklahoma State. His successor, Sam Aubrey was .231 = -442 points [B]John Beilein was .650 at Michigan. His successor, Juwan Howard is .740 = +90 points[/B] Phog Allen was .729 at Kansas. His successor, Dick Harp was .596 = -133 points John Chaney was .671 at Temple. His successor, Fran Dunphy was .625 = -46 points Norm Stewart was .656 at Missouri. His successor, Quin Snyder was .581 = -75 points Jerry Tarkanian was .829 at Indiana. His successor, Rollie Massimino was .554 = -275 points Ray Meyer was .672 at DePaul. His successor, Joey Meyer was .594 = -78 points [B]Jerry Slocum was .381 at Youngstown State. His successor, Jerrod Calhoun was .431 = +50 points[/B] Don Haskins was .671 at UTEP. His successor, Jason Rabedeaux was .500 = -171 points [B]Larry Hunter was .801 at Wittenberg. His successor, Dan Hipsher was .843 = +42 points[/B] Rick Barnes was .691 at Texas. His successor, Shaka Smart was .550 = -141 points Mike Montgomery was .702 at Stanford. His successor, Trent Johnson was .625 = -77 points [B]Denny Crum was .696 at Louisville. His successor, Rick Pitino was .744 = +48 points Gary Williams was .647 at Maryland. His successor, Mark Turgeon was .668 = +21 points John Wooden was .808 at UCLA. His successor, Gene Bartow was .852 = +44 points[/B] Ralph Miller was .633 at Oregon State. His successor, Jim Anderson was .467 = -166 points [B]Tom Penders was .654 at Texas. His successor, Rick Barnes was .691 = +37 points[/B] Rick Pitino was .744 at Louisville. His successor, Chris Mack was .687 = -57 points Gene Bartow was .643 at UAB. His successor, Murray Bartow was .554 = -89 points [B]Dana Altman was .650 at Creighton. His successor, Greg McDermott was .670 = +20 points[/B] Jim Larranaga was .625 at George Mason. His successor, Paul Hewitt was .496 = -129 points [B]Billy Tubbs was .716 at Oklahoma. His successor, Kelvin Sampson was .719 = +3 points Homer Drew was .550 at Valparaiso. His successor, Bryce Drew was .717 = +167 points[/B] Marv Harshman was .628 at Washington. His successor, Andy Russo was .496 = -132 points [B]Hugh Durham was .580 at Georgia. His successor, Tubby Smith was .703 = +123 points[/B] Cam Henderson was .695 at Marshall. His successor, Jule Rivlin was .532 = -163 points Norm Sloan was .677 at Florida. His successor, Jim Valvano was .651 = -26 points Stew Morrill was .720 at Utah State. His successor, Tim Duryea was .495 = -225 points Tom Smith was .616 at Missouri Western. His successor, Brett Weiberg was .363 = -253 points Kelvin Sampson was .719 at Oklahoma. His successor, Jeff Capel was .582 = -137 points [B]Ben Braun was .587 at California. His successor, Mike Montgomery was .640 = +53 points[/B] Tubby Smith was .760 at Kentucky. His successor, Billy Gillespie was .597 = -163 points Jerry Steele was .527 at High Point. His successor, Bart Lundy was .525 = -2 points Dave Boots was .682 at South Dakota. His successor, Craig Smith was .589 = -93 points Slats Gill was .604 at Oregon State. His successor, Paul Valenti was .526 = -78 points Tom Davis was .660 at Iowa. His successor, Steve Alford was .589 = -71 points Abe Lemons was .632 at Oklahoma City. His successor, Paul Hansen was .509 = -123 points John Thompson was .714 at Georgetown. His successor, Craig Esherick was .582 = -132 points Guy Lewis was .682 at Houston. His successor, Pat Foster was .660 = -22 points Joe Hutton was .741 at Hamline. His successor, Howard Schultz was .240 = -501 points Dom Roselli was .606 at Youngstown State. His successor, Mike Rice was .528 = -78 points Steve Alford was.589 at Iowa. His successor, Todd Lickliter was .396 = -193 points Tony Shaver was .747 at Hamden-Sydney. His successor, Bubba Smith was .671 = -76 points Greg Walcavich was .613 at Edinboro State. His successor, Pat Cleary is .485 = -128 points Fran Dunphy was .625 at Temple. His successor, Aaron McKie is .413 = -212 points Bobby Cremins was .599 at Georgia Tech. His successor, Paul Hewitt was .540 = -59 points [B]Pat Douglass was .508 at Cal-Irvine. His successor, Russell Turner is .601 = +93 points[/B] Fred Hobdy was .665 at Grambling. His successor, Bob Hopkins was .494 = -171 points Eldon Miller was .480 at Northern Iowa. His successor, Sam Weaver was .345 = -135 points Davey Whitney was .674 at Alcorn State. His successor, Lonnie Walker was .325 = -349 points Dave Bliss was .695 at New Mexico. His successor, Fran Fraschilla was .573 = -122 points [B]Gale Catlett was .610 at West Virginia. His successor, John Beilein was .634 = +24 points Gary Colson was .528 at Pepperdine. His successor, Jim Harrick was .633 = +105 points Danny Kaspar was .636 at Stephen . Austin. His successor, Brad Underwood was .864 = +228 points[/B] Bruce Pearl was .834 at Southern Indiana. His successor, Rick Herdes was .772 = -62 points Ed Douma was .779 at Calvin. His successor, Kevin Vande Streek was .677 = -102 points John Kresse was .792 at College of Charleston. His successor, Tom Herrion was .678 = -114 points Tony Hinkle was .588 at Butler. His successor, George Theofanis was .429 = -159 points Jim Boone was .764 was California (Pa). His successor, Bill Brown was .634 = -130 points Glenn Wilkes was .558 at Stetson. His successor, Dan Hipsher was .518 = -40 points Frank McGuire was .666 at South Carolina. His successor, Bill E. Foster was .538 = -128 points [B]Bob Davis was .694 at Georgetown (KY). His successor, Jim Reid was .727 = +33 points[/B] Harry Miller was .603 at Stephen . Austin. His successor, Mike Martin was .218 = -385 points Bill C. Foster was .595 at Clemson. His successor, Cliff Ellis was .581 = -14 points [B]Gene Keady was .655 at Purdue. His successor, Matt Painter is .660 = +5 points[/B] Bob Gaillard was .617 at Lewis and Clark. His successor, Dinari Foreman is .486 = -131 points Dave Bike was .514 at Sacred Heart. His successor, Anthony Latina is .416 = -98 points Lou Carnesecca was .718 at St John’s. His successor, Brian Mahoney was .491 = -227 points [B]Pete Carril was .663 at Princeton. His successor, Bill Carmody was .786 = +123 points[/B] Tom Young was .673 at Rutgers. His successor, Craig Littlepage was .267 = -406 points Ben Jobe was .653 at Southern U. His successor, Tommy Green was .536 = -137 points [B]Larry Eustachy was .557 at Southern Mississippi. His successor, Donnie Tyndall was .767 = +210 points[/B] Fred Enke was .611 at Arizona. His successor, Bruce Larson was .479 = -132 points Bob Hoffman was .559 at Mercer. His successor, Greg Gary is .569 = +10 points Rick Majerus was .773 at Utah. His successor, Ray Giacoletti was .574 = -199 points [B]C.M. Newton was .632 at Alabama. His successor, Wimp Sanderson was .692 = +60 points[/B] Don DeVoe was .533 at Navy. His successor, Billy Lange was .444 = -89 points Paul Webb was .666 at Randolph-Macon. His successor, Hal Nunnally was .650 = -16 points Nolan Richardson was .697 at Arkansas. His successor, Stan Heath was .536 = -161 points Hec Edmundson was .713 at Washington. His successor, Arthur McLarney was .596 = -117 points John Giannini was .484 at LaSalle. His successor, Ashley Howard was .400 = -84 points Harold Anderson was .662 at Bowling Green. His successor, Warren Scholler was .453 = -209 points [B]Dave Loos was .506 at Austin Peay State. His successor, Matt Figger is .603 = +97 points[/B] Jerry Welsh was .778 at Potsdam State. His successor, Bill Mitchell was .410 = -368 points Billy Donovan was .715 at Florida. His successor, Michael White was .630 = -85 points Don Maestri was .556 at Troy. His successor, Phil Cunningham was .419 = -137 points [B]Gregg Marshall was .732 at Wichita State. His successor, Isaac Brown is .765 = +33 points[/B] Ed Martin was .648 at Tennessee State. His successor, Larry Reid was .396 = -252 points Bill Reinhart was .574 at George Washington. His successor, Babe McCarthy was .333 = -241 points Cal Luther was .610 at Murray State. His successor, Fred Overton was .427 = -183 points That’s 103 coaches who won over 500 games in their careers and are not currently employed at the school that employed them the longest. In 76 of those cases, the next coach had a worse winning percentage. That’s 74%, down a bit from my 2008 study but still a significant number, to say the least. The total net change in the winning percent ages is -9,267 points. Divide that by 103 coaches and you get an average decline in winning percentage of 90 points. So, have ‘that conversation’ with Jim Boeheim if you want to. But be careful what you wish for. [/QUOTE]

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