Reply to thread

Message: [QUOTE="SWC75, post: 4098370, member: 289"] I have been challenged to look at the end of the legendary coach’s career and the record of his successor. One posters aid that “75% of those coaches underperformed prior levels and by a significant margin”, without providing the evidence of that. Another said “It would probably be too much work, but I would be curious to compare the winning percentages of the long-time coaches' last X year vs his corresponding successors. I am assuming most coaches toward the end of their tenures experienced a decline in their winning percentages. Not sure what X should be 3,4,5,6,7 years. The long-time coaches' overall winning percentages may not tell the full story.” I decided to look at the legend’s last 5 seasons and then compare his winning percentage in those seasons to those of his successor. Bob Knight was .654 at Indiana. His successor, Mike Davis was .593 = -61 points Jim Calhoun was .702 at Connecticut. His successor, Kevin Ollie was .551 = -151 points Dean Smith was .799 at North Carolina. His successor, Bill Guthridge was .740 = -59 points Adolph Rupp was .820 at Kentucky. His successor, Joe B. Hall was .748 = -72 points [B]Jim Phelan was .319 at Mount St. Mary’s. His successor, Milan Brown was .442 = -+123 points Rollie Massimino was .576 at Villanova. His successor, Steve Lappas was .613 = +37 points[/B] Eddie Sutton was .721 at Oklahoma State. His successor, Sean Sutton was .573 = -148 points [B]Rick Byrd was .720 at Belmont. His successor, Casey Alexander is .833 = +113 points [/B] Lefty Driesell was .646 at Maryland. His successor, Bob Wade was .419 = -227 points Lute Olson was .724 at Arizona. His successor, Kevin O’Neill was .559 = -165 points [B]Lou Henson was .573 at Illinois. His successor, Lon Kruger was .628 = +55 points[/B] Bo Ryan was .765 at Wisconsin. His successor, Greg Gard is .635 = -130 points (Ryan started the 2015-16 season and resigned so that Greg Card could take over. I counted that as the first Greg Card season.) [B]Ed Diddle was .537 at Western Kentucky. His successor, Johnny Oldham was .781 = +244 points[/B] Hank Iba was .370 at Oklahoma State. His successor, Sam Aubrey was .231 = -139 points [B]John Beilein was .696 at Michigan. His successor, Juwan Howard is .706 = +10 points[/B] Phog Allen was .727 at Kansas. His successor, Dick Harp was .596 = -131 points [B]John Chaney was .535 at Temple. His successor, Fran Dunphy was .625 = +90 points[/B] Norm Stewart was .583 at Missouri. His successor, Quin Snyder was .581 = -2 points Jerry Tarkanian was .874 at Indiana. His successor, Rollie Massimino was .554 = -320 points Ray Meyer was .858 at DePaul. His successor, Joey Meyer was .594 = -264 points [B]Jerry Slocum was .415 at Youngstown State. His successor, Jerrod Calhoun was .431 = +16 points[/B] Don Haskins was .536 at UTEP. His successor, Jason Rabedeaux was .500 = -36 points [B]Larry Hunter was .819 at Wittenberg. His successor, Dan Hipsher was .843 = +24 points[/B] Rick Barnes was .624 at Texas. His successor, Shaka Smart was .550 = -74 points Mike Montgomery was .825 at Stanford. His successor, Trent Johnson was .625 = -200 points [B]Denny Crum was .553 at Louisville. His successor, Rick Pitino was .744 = +191 points Gary Williams was .639 at Maryland. His successor, Mark Turgeon was .668 = +29 points[/B] John Wooden was .947 at UCLA. His successor, Gene Bartow was .852 = -95 points Ralph Miller was .638 at Oregon State. His successor, Jim Anderson was .467 = -171 points [B]Tom Penders was .654 at Texas. His successor, Rick Barnes was .691 = +37 points[/B] Rick Pitino was .792 at Louisville. His successor, Chris Mack is .670 = -122 points Gene Bartow was .609 at UAB. His successor, Murray Bartow was .554 = -55 points [B]Dana Altman was .661 at Creighton. His successor, Greg McDermott was .670 = +9 points[/B] Jim Larranaga was .645 at George Mason. His successor, Paul Hewitt was .496 = -149 points [B]Billy Tubbs was .656 at Oklahoma. His successor, Kelvin Sampson was .719 = +63 points Homer Drew was .515 at Valparaiso. His successor, Bryce Drew was .717 = +202 points[/B] Marv Harshman was .633 at Washington. His successor, Andy Russo was .496 = -137 points [B]Hugh Durham was .541 at Georgia. His successor, Tubby Smith was .703 = +162 points[/B] Cam Henderson was .653 at Marshall. His successor, Jule Rivlin was .532 = -121 points Norm Sloan was .660 at Florida. His successor, Jim Valvano was .651 = -9 points Stew Morrill was .655 at Utah State. His successor, Tim Duryea was .495 = -160 points Tom Smith was .447 at Missouri Western. His successor, Brett Weiberg was .363 = -84 points Kelvin Sampson was .755 at Oklahoma. His successor, Jeff Capel was .582 = -173 points [B]Ben Braun was .513 at California. His successor, Mike Montgomery was .640 = +127 points[/B] Tubby Smith was .766 at Kentucky. His successor, Billy Gillespie was .597 = -169 points [B]Jerry Steele was .338 at High Point. His successor, Bart Lundy was .525 = +187 points Dave Boots was .526 at South Dakota. His successor, Craig Smith was .589 = +63 points[/B] Slats Gill was .709 at Oregon State. His successor, Paul Valenti was .526 = -183 points Tom Davis was .671 at Iowa. His successor, Steve Alford was .589 = -82 points Abe Lemons was .591 at Oklahoma City. His successor, Paul Hansen was .509 = -82 points John Thompson was .646 at Georgetown. His successor, Craig Esherick was .582 = -64 points Guy Lewis was .728 at Houston. His successor, Pat Foster was .660 = -68 points Joe Hutton was .492 at Hamline. His successor, Howard Schultz was .240 = -252 points [B]Dom Rosselli was .515 at Youngstown State. His successor, Mike Rice was .528 = +13 points[/B] Steve Alford was.608 at Iowa. His successor, Todd Lickliter was .396 = -212 points Tony Shaver was .867 at Hamden-Sydney. His successor, Bubba Smith was .671 = -196 points Greg Walcavich was .496 at Edinboro State. His successor, Pat Cleary is .485 = -11 points Fran Dunphy was .613 at Temple. His successor, Aaron McKie is .413 = -200 points [B]Bobby Cremins was .510 at Georgia Tech. His successor, Paul Hewitt was .540 = +30 points Pat Douglass was .472 at Cal-Irvine. His successor, Russell Turner is .601 = +129 points Fred Hobdy was .410 at Grambling. His successor, Bob Hopkins was .494 = +84 points[/B] Eldon Miller was .460 at Northern Iowa. His successor, Sam Weaver was .345 = -115 points Davey Whitney was .601 at Alcorn State. His successor, Lonnie Walker was .325 = -276 points Dave Bliss was .694 at New Mexico. His successor, Fran Fraschilla was .573 = -121 points [B]Gale Catlett was .497 at West Virginia. His successor, John Beilein was .634 = +137 points Gary Colson was .591 at Pepperdine. His successor, Jim Harrick was .633 = +42 points Danny Kaspar was .713 at Stephen . Austin. His successor, Brad Underwood was .864 = +148 points[/B] Bruce Pearl was .825 at Southern Indiana. His successor, Rick Herdes was .772 = -52 points Ed Douma was .779 at Calvin. His successor, Kevin Vande Streek was .677 = -102 points John Kresse was .793 at College of Charleston. His successor, Tom Herrion was .678 = -115 points Tony Hinkle was .481 at Butler. His successor, George Theofanis was .429 = -52 points Jim Boone was .800 was California (Pa). His successor, Bill Brown was .634 = -166 points [B]Glenn Wilkes was .483 at Stetson. His successor, Dan Hipsher was .518 = +35 points[/B] Frank McGuire was .585 at South Carolina. His successor, Bill E. Foster was .538 = -47 points [B]Bob Davis was .684 at Georgetown (KY). His successor, Jim Reid was .727 = +43 points [/B] Harry Miller was .650 at Stephen . Austin. His successor, Mike Martin was .218 = -432 points [B]Bill C. Foster was .547 at Clemson. His successor, Cliff Ellis was .581 = +34 points Gene Keady was .480 at Purdue. His successor, Matt Painter is .660 = +180 points[/B] Bob Gaillard was .609 at Lewis and Clark. His successor, Dinari Foreman is .486 = -123 points Dave Bike was .433 at Sacred Heart. His successor, Anthony Latina is .416 = -17 points Lou Carnesecca was .652 at St John’s. His successor, Brian Mahoney was .491 = -161 points [B]Pete Carril was .689 at Princeton. His successor, Bill Carmody was .786 = +97 points [/B] Tom Young was .604 at Rutgers. His successor, Craig Littlepage was .267 = -337 points [B]Ben Jobe was .453 at Southern U. His successor, Tommy Green was .536 = +83 points Larry Eustachy was .612 at Southern Mississippi. His successor, Donnie Tyndall was .767 = +155 points Fred Enke was .378 at Arizona. His successor, Bruce Larson was .479 = +101 points Bob Hoffman was .500 at Mercer. His successor, Greg Gary is .569 = +69 points[/B] Rick Majerus was .733 at Utah. His successor, Ray Giacoletti was .574 = -159 points C.M. Newton was .705 at Alabama. His successor, Wimp Sanderson was .692 = -13 points Don DeVoe was .445 at Navy. His successor, Billy Lange was .444 = -1 points Paul Webb was .712 at Randolph-Macon. His successor, Hal Nunnally was .650 = -62 points Nolan Richardson was .697 at Arkansas. His successor, Stan Heath was .536 = -161 points Hec Edmundson was .658 at Washington. His successor, Arthur McLarney was .596 = -62 points John Giannini was .439 at LaSalle. His successor, Ashley Howard was .400 = -39 points Harold Anderson was .619 at Bowling Green. His successor, Warren Scholler was .453 = -166 points [B]Dave Loos was .363 at Austin Peay State. His successor, Matt Figger is .603 = +230 points[/B] Jerry Welsh was .840 at Potsdam State. His successor, Bill Mitchell was .410 = -430 points Billy Donovan was .743 at Florida. His successor, Michael White was .630 = -113 points Don Maestri was .445 at Troy. His successor, Phil Cunningham was .419 = -26 points [B]Gregg Marshall was .738 at Wichita State. His successor, Isaac Brown is .765 = +27 points[/B] Ed Martin was .491 at Tennessee State. His successor, Larry Reid was .396 = -355 points Bill Reinhart was .350 at George Washington. His successor, Babe McCarthy was .333 = -17 points Cal Luther was .584 at Murray State. His successor, Fred Overton was .427 = -157 points That’s 37 new coaches whose winning percentage exceeded that of the 103 legendary coaches last 5 years. 64% did not, down from 74%. The 37 improvements were by a total of 3,419 percentage points, an average of 92 points per coach. But the 66 new coaches who did worse, did so by at total of 8,851 points, an average of 134 points per coach. Add it together and it’s a net loss of 5,432 points by the 103 schools, an average of 53 points per school. Of the 103 legendary coaches, 64 had worse winning percentage sin their last 5 years than in their overall tenure at the school, 62%, not 75%. 36 of them actually improved in their last five years. Three had exactly the same winning percentage. Ten of the legends saw their winning percent age dip below that of their successors by focusing on the last five years. One of them had been below his successor but moved above him by concentrating on the last five years. The bottom line is that 74% of the winningest college basketball coaches of all time had better records at their longest gig than their successors did. If you just look at the legend’s last five years, that reduced to 64% but 64% - 36% is still a landslide. It’s possible that Jim Boeheim’s successor will win at a higher rate than he did, at least in the last five years of Jim’s tenure. But not likely. [/QUOTE]

Verification: What is a Syracuse fan's favorite color?