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Message: [QUOTE="Zelda Zonk, post: 4099668, member: 966"] If you're in charge of actually signing players, no, you don't rely on the simple metric of "road numbers." You look at park-factored numbers, and especially the parks in which your team will play. And you look at opposing pitchers, and a slew of other very specific factors. But, your table looks at only one thing, a result in broad terms, and doesn't examine the factors that might make that information relevant from one case to the next or to ours. Is it "irrelevant?" I think i called it "interesting." But, no, it's not very relevant. More importantly, i will keep disagreeing with the founding premise, that "we need to know the odds... before we decide that a change would produce better results." My standing point is that a [B]change is going to be made[/B]. I don't believe Wildhack will actively end JAB's time. It's up to JAB, maybe with some urging toward the sooner rather than the later, but in any case, don't we pretty much all expect it's going to end sometime between the end of this season and three years from now? It's not as if it's a decision Wildhack has to make with a 50-year old JAB. He was already scheduled to have retired a few years ago. There isn't a lot of bloom left on the rose. The term is finite and we're nearing the end. So, even if the odds were 95% against us, that's irrelevant. It's like if you have no food, except one cracker that stands a 95% chance of being poisoned, but if you don't eat it, you'll die of malnutrition. You can wait but you're going to have to try the cracker. You stand a far greater chance of being involved in an auto accident if you go out for pizza, than if you stay home and eat Totino's, but is that statistic going to stop you from driving your car? Some things just have to be done. So much of the subtext of a lot of these arguments seems to be that JAB's age is not a factor, and that all it will take is some luck to sign a couple of top 20 recruits and everything will be peaches for another 30 years. Funny, that you call my paragraphs "word salad," when i look at the start of this thread and see unformatted lines of... stuff... I mean, i work for a data company, but i'm a writer (sorta). Anyway, again, thanks for the work, but saying "103 coaches" isn't really the point, either. What do these names have to do with us? This is historically accurate, but it doesn't tell us even the odds potential of our next coach. We don't even know the candidate. If we signed Jay Wright instead of the guy running South by Southwest Cactus Tech, wouldn't that be a far more significant factor than knowing how many games Brett Weiberg won at Missouri Western? [/QUOTE]

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