footballstudyhall profile of SU

[Millhouse]

Syracuse statistical profile

has us favored only two more times but the total expected wins based on their probabilities is 5.05

the projected margins against the factories isn't as bad as they used to be, i bet.

rounding to easy to remember odds of winning
NC State 33%
Wake 50%
BC/Pitt 75%
Everyone else 20% or lower

 

[Millhouse]

defense is good most of the time but gives up big plays - babers probably accepts that

 

[LeMoyneCuse]

Nykeim Johnson's 25% catch rate is something.

 

[TheCusian]

Syracuse statistical profile

has us favored only two more times but the total expected wins based on their probabilities is 5.05

the projected margins against the factories isn't as bad as they used to be, i bet.

rounding to easy to remember odds of winning
NC State 33%
Wake 50%
BC/Pitt 75%
Everyone else 20% or lower

Keep in mind the % for LSU was 13%

 

[721Comstock]

Syracuse statistical profile

has us favored only two more times but the total expected wins based on their probabilities is 5.05

the projected margins against the factories isn't as bad as they used to be, i bet.

rounding to easy to remember odds of winning
NC State 33%
Wake 50%
BC/Pitt 75%
Everyone else 20% or lower

Seems fair.

Would be lovely to upset NCSt this weekend, as that would set us up nicely to have a solid chance to go bowling.
Wake at home you have to like our odds.
If we don't beat BC & Pitt, then we deserve what we get.

 

[PhatOrange]

thanks for posting.

obviously even if we beat wake, bc, pitt we're going to have to find one somewhere. mtsu loss just hurts. i think we beat that team 9 out of 10 x

 

[Chip]

thanks for posting.

obviously even if we beat wake, bc, pitt we're going to have to find one somewhere. mtsu loss just hurts. i think we beat that team 9 out of 10 x

I say we just find it this weekend.

No one likes chasing the points.

 

[Entropic]

Ravian Pierce has caught all 9 attempts. Maybe throw his way a little more?

 

[Capt. Tuttle]

thanks for posting.

obviously even if we beat wake, bc, pitt we're going to have to find one somewhere. mtsu loss just hurts. i think we beat that team 9 out of 10 x

 

[shandeezy7]

defense is good most of the time but gives up big plays - babers probably accepts that

Isn't that the opposite of what the Tampa 2 is supposed to do? Seems like we've been a little bit better this year at not giving up the big play, but it's still happening and we haven't played an elite passing offense yet (I know MTSU likes to throw the ball around the field, but they aren't Clemson).

 

[TheCusian]

Isn't that the opposite of what the Tampa 2 is supposed to do? Seems like we've been a little bit better this year at not giving up the big play, but it's still happening and we haven't played an elite passing offense yet (I know MTSU likes to throw the ball around the field, but they aren't Clemson).

Clemson is not an elite passing team... They are good and have elite OL, dangerous running game and a decent passing game

Passing yards per game
Louisville is tops in the ACC and #7 nationally.
NC State is #2 in the ACC and #15 nationally.
We are #4 in the ACC and #25 nationally.
Miami is #6 in the ACC and #32 nationally.
Clemson is #10 in the ACC and #63 nationally.

Just for laughs, our other NE brethren:
Pittsburgh is #12 in the ACC and #87 nationally.
BC is #13 in the ACC and #104 nationally.
Rutgers #14 in the B1G and #114 nationally.

 

[shandeezy7]

Clemson is not an elite passing team... They are good and have elite OL, dangerous running game and a decent passing game

Passing yards per game
Louisville is tops in the ACC and #7 nationally.
NC State is #2 in the ACC and #15 nationally.
We are #4 in the ACC and #25 nationally.
Miami is #6 in the ACC and #32 nationally.
Clemson is #10 in the ACC and #63 nationally.

Just for laughs, our other NE brethren:
Pittsburgh is #12 in the ACC and #87 nationally.
BC is #13 in the ACC and #104 nationally.
Rutgers #14 in the B1G and #114 nationally.

Regardless, my point still stands. I don't think a coach who runs a defensive system whose major focus is preventing big plays would be content with that defense continuing to give up big plays.

 

[upperdeck]

Every big play has a reason.. you have to try and limit them to physical and not mental mistakes.

the first plat of the 2nd half shows an adjustment LSU made to what we were doing.

2te 2wr 1 rb set, and we were 8 in the box single high

they sent the wr in motion that brings the safety up to the motion man and the corner runs back to safety.

Foster is trying to cover the slot te/wr and has to honor the play action, so he is chasing as soon as the run fake goes, this means the safety/corner help has to cover that guy

If Foster doesnt get beat off the line then the corner can stay on top of the WR, but he cant and you can see Frederick is actually in a good spot below with a cushion. But speed kills. This is not Tampa 2 because of a good play design and works because of better athletes.. SPEED SPEED SPEED.. we cant run this play

But its also a prefect throw and from the 30 to the other 40 or DB goes from a 2 yd cushion to a 2 yd deficit. Not much he could do. The ball was almost dropped on top of all that.

 

[CuseOnly]

Isn't that the opposite of what the Tampa 2 is supposed to do? Seems like we've been a little bit better this year at not giving up the big play, but it's still happening and we haven't played an elite passing offense yet (I know MTSU likes to throw the ball around the field, but they aren't Clemson).

We did play some pretty Elite physical specimens in the receiving corps at LSU which kind of SKU's the numbers. Big plays aren't always a function of the offense you are playing, sometimes they are just bigger and faster than you and it has nothing to do with scheme.

 

[TheCusian]

Regardless, my point still stands. I don't think a coach who runs a defensive system whose major focus is preventing big plays would be content with that defense continuing to give up big plays.

For sure. I don't think any coach likes that - but he's repeatedly said that you can't avoid having your corners on islands against the schedule we play. The T2 is a base defense, but we move in and out of it all of the time I think.

 

[reedny]

Every big play has a reason.. you have to try and limit them to physical and not mental mistakes.

the first plat of the 2nd half shows an adjustment LSU made to what we were doing.

2te 2wr 1 rb set, and we were 8 in the box single high

they sent the wr in motion that brings the safety up to the motion man and the corner runs back to safety.

View attachment 111478

Foster is trying to cover the slot te/wr and has to honor the play action, so he is chasing as soon as the run fake goes, this means the safety/corner help has to cover that guy

View attachment 111479

If Foster doesnt get beat off the line then the corner can stay on top of the WR, but he cant and you can see Frederick is actually in a good spot below with a cushion. But speed kills. This is not Tampa 2 because of a good play design and works because of better athletes.. SPEED SPEED SPEED.. we cant run this play

View attachment 111480

But its also a prefect throw and from the 30 to the other 40 or DB goes from a 2 yd cushion to a 2 yd deficit. Not much he could do. The ball was almost dropped on top of all that.

Nice analysis. The bottom line is our lack of speed. SU's defensive backfield is an iso away from a TD on every pass play. We can't expect to compete against the big boys -- or even MTS -- if opposing receivers and RB's can outrun our whole secondary.

 

[shandeezy7]

We did play some pretty Elite physical specimens in the receiving corps at LSU which kind of SKU's the numbers. Big plays aren't always a function of the offense you are playing, sometimes they are just bigger and faster than you and it has nothing to do with scheme.

I agree with that to an extent, but last year especially we were getting beat over the top at an alarming rate.

 

[upperdeck]

Getting beat over the top because of talent issues you can live with.. Last year was just as many mental mistakes as physical. This year is mostly physical and a few bad angles by safeties. The killers are the blown coverage's were killer last year.

 

[TheCusian]

I agree with that to an extent, but last year especially we were getting beat over the top at an alarming rate.

I don't think last year was a good look at what Babers/Ward envision. It's pretty clear that the players weren't conformable with the new system. This years D is a better gauge...

 

[shandeezy7]

I don't think last year was a good look at what Babers/Ward envision. It's pretty clear that the players weren't conformable with the new system. This years D is a better gauge...

Right, so far so good in terms of some improvement this year. Hopefully it continues through the rest of the season and beyond.

 

[TheCusian]

Right, so far so good in terms of some improvement this year. Hopefully it continues through the rest of the season and beyond.

I agree with you about being concerned about the explosive deep pass plays. Hopefully we don’t see any Sat

 

[CuseOnly]

I agree with that to an extent, but last year especially we were getting beat over the top at an alarming rate.

Of course we did, essentially we had the same DBs but they were a year younger and not as physically ready...and going against the same talent level as today.

We also had a horrendous pass rush, which today we don't, our DL and linebackers are better and we have a more aggressive scheme because they are all not in their first year in the system. Babers and Monroe trust them all more as well which matters.

 

[Ish88888]

Isn't that the opposite of what the Tampa 2 is supposed to do? Seems like we've been a little bit better this year at not giving up the big play, but it's still happening and we haven't played an elite passing offense yet (I know MTSU likes to throw the ball around the field, but they aren't Clemson).

Yes, THAT is the premise of the T2. Keep the ball in front, table, pressure the qb, premium in backers covering in space . On and on. We are alot better this year, love to see it, but we still need to stop getting beat over the top.