Reply to thread

Message: [QUOTE="Millhouse, post: 121879, member: 78"] [URL]http://daviddfriedman.blogspot.com/2011/12/thinking-fast-and-slow.html[/URL] this is ottointhesnotto length - sorry Kahneman Nobel prize winning economist/psych guy. I haven't read the book yet but the book's insight is that have two ways of thinking. 1. fast pattern recognition with crude probability buckets, simple decision rules. 2. conscious thought, much slower. we rely on both because you don't have the time or attention to analyze everything so in depth. When thinking fast, we group things into buckets, possible, impossible, certain. Explains why people will buy expensive fire insurance (loss from fire goes from possible to impossible) while buying expensive lottery tickets relative to expected value (insane wealth goes from impossible to possible). You don't neccessarily know the expected probabilities, you just move from one bucket to another. I think this is what goes on with most coaches. They don't know the expected values or can't think of them fast enough so when faced with a 4th down, they think "failing is possible but punting inside the 20 is certain." never mind that it's not certain, that's how they think spur of the moment. "not converting = possible, punt far away = certain... tick tock uh tick tock ok ok punt certain certain certain" haven't thought this through entirely but assuming that coaches think in terms of crude probability buckets might explain a lot of their irrational decisions. the thing is that this data exists and can be right at your disposal, it doesn't require much conscious thought, just let go and rely on the chart or computer upstairs. being able to think fast is very important for coaches. this isn't to say that slower thinking coaches are stupid - i don't know how fast a thinker einstein was, maybe he would've been bad at this stuff too with seconds ticking away. who wants to admit that they don't think fast? hiring someone to handle these probabilistic thinking duties would tell the world, "I'm not great at thinking fast on my feet!" [/QUOTE]

Verification: What is a Syracuse fan's favorite color?