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Message: [QUOTE="Knicks411, post: 2542487, member: 767"] Basically I think the way the math works is this: You compare the average points per possession you'd expect to allow on defense (usually around 1 or so) to the expected points on 2 FT attempts (let's sya 75%,) so 1.50. So fouling the other teams would net them 0.50 points. So if the extra possession you get is worth more than 0.50 points (which it is), then theoretically fouling should work. But that's in the long run, this is one possession with the game on the line, so it's a lot more binary. The other team will almost certainly get at least 1 point, so what are the odds you come away from your possession with a score? [/QUOTE]