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Message: [QUOTE="IthacaMatt, post: 14528, member: 405"] It HAS to happen. Nobody can remain in a conference with the Longhorns having their own separate TV deal. Everybody else is assigning themselves to second class status in their own conference. Each remaining school becomes another version of the Washington Generals, fodder for the viewers to see Texas beat each week. Nobody can stay in that conference. Texas thinks they can cram a deal down the ACC's throat like Notre Dame has with the Big East. The ACC is the only conference who would go for it (or the Big East, of course, but that would never ever happen, because our bulk and imbalance makes us likely to be second to go down. The Big 10 and Pac 10 has taken the position that they are all pooling their TV money. They won't allow Texas to keep its network, so those 2 won't happen. Period. That's not hard to see. Texas won't hold the Big 12 together, that's what we just found out with the Oklahoma and OK State discussions with the Pac 10. So it's every man for himself mode. They seem done to me. The Big East looks smart for having started talking to the refugees from Kansas, K State and Missouri. That really secures the BCS status of the football league. Not necessarily elite teams, but good enough teams that they are viewed as legitimate BCS schools, not teams making the step up. That's huge for the Big East's brand, not to turn into the Metro Conference or Conference USA, version 2 (or 3). So that leaves 2 issues: 1. If Texas goes to the ACC, do they go to 14 or 16? 2. When Texas A&M goes to the SEC, who else does the SEC add to balance things, and do they stop at 14 or go to 16? I think if Texas goes to the ACC, it helps keep Fla. State, who has been advertising their availability the past couple days. And it makes the ACC want to make that fell swoop, and grab 3 from the Big East to fill out the 16. I don't see the ACC wanting Kansas, K State, Mizzou, or the Okies. They just don't fit. Texas has the best academic profile, and the schools do want bragging rights about these things, the academic prestige. So, does the ACC grab Syracuse, UConn and Pitt to wrap things up? I think so. I don't think Rutgers really has any brand for TV purposes, while Pitt does, and it is a good academic school with an impressive amount of research. That leaves a Big East of TCU, Kansas, K State, Missouri, Cincinnati, Louisville, USF, Rutgers, West Virginia - still a viable football conference that would keep the name and the automatic BCS bid and a 4 home / 4 away conf. schedule. Remaining hoops onlies: Villanova, St. John's, Georgetown, Providence, DePaul, Marquette, Seton Hall - which is still the magical 16 teams for purposes of hoops, with 9 for football . But where's Notre Dame? Unless the Big 10 can poach someone good to go with them to make a league of 14, I think Notre Dame stays in the Big East for as long as they stay good enough to keep their own football contract (with NBC or independently, like Texas has done). Who would the Big 10 add of the caliber to make it worthwhile? The only school I see is Oklahoma, whose rivalry with Nebraska would be a HUGE game for the Big 10. Can Oklahoma do it without Okla State? Only their legislature knows for sure. But that would be a hell of a conference TV package. If all of that happens, it shakes out like this: ACC - 16 Texas, Fla State, Miami, Ga Tech, Clemson, NC State, NC, Duke, Wake, BC, Pitt, SU, UConn, Maryland, Va Tech, Va Big 10 -14 Mich, Mich State, Penn State, Notre Dame, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Wisc, Iowa, Minn, Illinois, Indiana, Northwestern, Purdue That's what it's looking like to me. [/QUOTE]

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