Recently, I labeled Syracuse as
one of the nation's most consistent teams. I probably should have added, however, that the consistency displayed by the Orange of late is about to receive a severe test: Jim Boeheim said goodbye to three of his four double-digit scorers from last season.
C.J. Fair completed his eligibility, and Tyler Ennis and Jerami Grant left school early to pursue their ambitions in the NBA. As a result of these departures, I'm now coming across preseason top-25s that omit Syracuse entirely. When colleague Jay Bilas released his
top contenders for 2014-15 a little while back, the Orange were nowhere to be found.
I think that might turn out to be a mistake. I've seen Boeheim lose three starters before, but what I haven't seen in a very long time is Syracuse earning anything worse than a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
In fact, that hasn't happened since 2007-08.
This program just has a knack for not requiring a rebuild. For example, look at the No. 1-seeded 2009-10 team that went 30-5 and was upset by Butler in the Sweet 16. Going into the following season, Boeheim had lost three starters in the form of Wes Johnson, Andy Rautins and Arinze Onuaku. Was the 2010-11 team just as good as Boeheim's previous squad? No, but the Orange did go 12-6 in the Big East and earned a No. 3 seed in that year's field of 68. Don't be stunned if something similar occurs in 2014-15.
After all, how surprised will you be if Boeheim's young players enter the 2015 calendar year having emerged from a rather (ahem) Carrier Dome-intensive schedule with, say, a 12-1 record and growing confidence in their defense?
That does seem to be the pattern from this program.
How has Boeheim been able to keep the Orange performing at such a high level season after season? Some might say it's because of the zone defense, and perhaps that gives Syracuse players an edge in system familiarity early in the season, but that explanation seems a little too simple. I would instead call the zone a contributing factor -- one that inflicts a helpful level of discomfort upon opposing offenses, particularly early in the season when offensive play can be less cohesive. But, of course, you don't
need to play zone to be this impervious to "down" seasons. Kansas and Wisconsin have been just as consistent statistically over the past five seasons as the Orange, and Bill Self and Bo Ryan have achieved those results without the benefit of a 2-3 zone.
One thing that strikes me about Syracuse in particular, though, is that Boeheim's recruiting tends to be not so much underrated as under-mentioned. (To be sure, the coach has set out to rectify this by mentioning it himself. Boeheim has labeled next year's recruiting class as perhaps
the best one in the school's history.) The Orange have not landed a national top-10 recruit in years, a fact that has perhaps obscured how many quality (i.e., top-100) players Boeheim does indeed have on hand at any one time.
When you watch this season's team, keep in mind that guys such as
Rakeem Christmas,
Trevor Cooney,
Michael Gbinije,
DaJuan Coleman,
Tyler Roberson,
Kaleb Joseph and
Chris McCullough were all highly sought-after recruits in their day. Just flipping through the offer lists for these players, one sees the likes of Kentucky, Kansas, Connecticut, Ohio State, etc. That hardly guarantees success for the Orange in 2014-15, of course, but it does provide useful context for what is likely to be recurring hand-wringing from Boeheim about how Ennis and Grant left him high and dry.
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Jared Wickerham/Getty ImagesGuard Trevor Cooney will be the team's leading returning scorer.
Naturally, expectations would be higher if Ennis and Grant had stuck around, but there's reason to believe Syracuse can perform considerably well with the personnel on hand. This team's strength last season was its defense, and in Cooney and Christmas the Orange will have both a high-steal-rate perimeter defender and a rim protector in place and ready to go in November. Over the past five seasons with a program that's been playing in conferences that had either 15 or 16 teams, Boeheim has seen his team record the following rankings for defense (points allowed per possession) in league play: second, fifth, first, fifth and first. One possibility, even without Ennis and Grant, is that this run will continue in 2014-15.
As for the offense, I don't suppose this youngish Orange team will rate out as No. 1 in the nation on that side of the ball. Still, is replacing (last season's versions of) Fair and Ennis really going to be so unthinkable?
Remember: As a team, Syracuse was
terrible at shooting from the field in 2013-14. The Orange ranked No. 14 in 2-point percentage in ACC play and No. 11 from beyond the arc. If this season's team can simply achieve a level of accuracy that is equal to the league average, I predict everyone will be raving about the "terrific job" Boeheim has done with his young roster.
Cooney is Boeheim's leading returning scorer, and he'll be joined in the starting lineup by Christmas (whom I hereby nominate as the best current example of a player who seems like he's been around since at least 2006). Who knows, maybe this is the season that Coleman stays healthy. Gbinije will certainly see minutes, and, as a freshman, Joseph will be given every opportunity to show he can hold down the point guard responsibilities.
That's not the most explosive group Boeheim has taken into a season, perhaps, but it does resemble one or two past Orange teams that have fared well enough.
Don't leave Syracuse off your top 25 just yet.
