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Message: [QUOTE="FloridaCuse, post: 5724607, member: 8912"] [B]LACROSSE REFERENCE[/B] via Free Expected Goals Email March 22, 2026 [COLOR=rgb(51, 51, 51)][FONT=Helvetica][TABLE] [TR] [td][TABLE] [TR] [td][HEADING=1][SIZE=24px][COLOR=#000000]Preview: Syracuse vs Georgetown[/COLOR][/SIZE][/HEADING][/td] [/TR] [/TABLE][/td] [/TR] [/TABLE][/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=rgb(51, 51, 51)][FONT=Helvetica][TABLE] [TR] [SIZE=4][td][SIZE=4][COLOR=inherit]Syracuse heads into Sunday's trip to Georgetown as a clear favorite in the LaxElo model, but not an overwhelming one. Based on their current ratings (Syracuse 5th, Georgetown 12th), if these teams played 100 times, we would expect Syracuse to win about 67 of those games. A Hoyas win would be a genuine upset, but not the kind of result that would break the model. From there, the story quickly becomes less about one-sided dominance and more about narrow edges in specific areas. On the Syracuse offense vs. Georgetown defense side, the numbers point to a fairly balanced matchup. Syracuse's opponent‑adjusted offensive efficiency sits 6th nationally, while Georgetown's defense, after adjusting for schedule, is 11th. That gap suggests a slight tilt toward the Orange, but not a mismatch. Syracuse has been one of the more consistent scoring units in the country; Georgetown has been good enough defensively that they should be able to force some empty trips and keep this from turning into a track meet. Flip the field, and the pattern is similar. Georgetown's offense ranks 8th in adjusted efficiency, and Syracuse's defense is 9th. Again, two top‑10 units, separated by a hair. Statistically, that points to a game where both teams can generate quality looks and where neither side is likely to completely shut off the other's primary options. Any edge here is more about execution on the day than structural advantage. Where the matchup starts to open up is in the possession game. After adjusting for opponent strength, Syracuse is averaging +2.4 more offensive possessions per game than its opponents, good for 27th nationally. Georgetown, by contrast, sits at -2.8 and 64th. Over 60 minutes, that kind of gap can quietly decide things; even if efficiencies are comparable, a team that can consistently generate a few extra chances has more margin for error. The faceoff matchup is the main driver of that possession edge. Georgetown has leaned most heavily on Hayden Cody for draws, but the Faceoff Elo model actually rates Ross Prince as their stronger option: Prince comes in 28th nationally, while Cody is 141st. How the Hoyas allocate those reps matters, because whoever they send out will see a lot of John Mullen. Mullen has been Syracuse's primary specialist, winning 57.4% of his draws and ranking 36th in Faceoff Elo. On paper, that sets up as a spot where Syracuse can continue to gain more possessions than its opponents, unless Georgetown either gets a standout performance or finds the right mix between Cody and Prince. Riding and clearing will layer onto that story. Syracuse's overall possession margin suggests they've been effective not just at the X but also in turning opponents over in transition and limiting giveaways that hand back possessions. Georgetown's negative margin, even after schedule adjustment, indicates they've been on the wrong side of those small battles more often than not. If that pattern holds, the Hoyas will be under pressure to outperform their season‑long trends just to keep the possession count close. Taken together, the numbers back up LaxElo's read: two teams with similar offensive and defensive efficiency, with Syracuse holding a real—but not overwhelming—edge in the possession game. Over time, that points to the Orange winning about two-thirds of the time. In a one-off, if Georgetown can slow Mullen at the X and avoid giving away extra transition chances, the gap closes fast. That's the path to turning an expected Syracuse win into one of those 33 out of 100 that go the other way.[/COLOR][/SIZE][/td][/SIZE] [/TR] [/TABLE][/FONT][/COLOR] [/QUOTE]

Verification: What is a Syracuse fan's favorite color?