arbitragegls
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Thanks to Keeting and Brenner (senior editors at ESPNInsider) who have fashioned a bracket selection based on a teams vulnerability that covers DEFENSENSIVE REBOUNDING, generating TOs, and blocked shots coupled with OFFENSIVE EFFICIENCY, OFFENSIVE REBOUNDING, FOUL SHOOTING AND 3 PT SHOOTING among other metrics, they select teams that are most likely to fall to low seeded teams (seed 10 above).
Interestingly, in the East Bracket, both Vandy and FSU are potential teams to be KILLED by a value of 20% or more. What is important for 'Cuse fans to consider is that Syracuse is one of the three least likely teams to be shot down by a high seed in this tournament (KY and UNC) are the other two.
'Cuse scores very well on these metrics as shown below. Interestingly, the metrics do not place high value on defensive rebounding. So whereas 'Cuse ranks 341 in team rating on defensive rebounding it scores much better on defensive metrics that are more important (3rd in steals, 6th in forcing TOS and 2nd in Block shots). Couple this with offensive efficiency few TOs and scoring more from 2 pt range etc making 'Cuse less vulnerable to teams. We should also be strong from a metric perspective Vs. Vandy and FSU--no worries there (sort to speak). Here is the 'Cuse evaluation vs. Asheville:
No. 16 UNC Asheville (12.2) vs. No. 1 Syracuse (6.8)
Upset chance: 5.2 percent
The Orange, meanwhile, demonstrate why some stats matter more than others when it comes to Giant Killing. For all the talk you'll hear about the importance of free throws at this time of year, Syracuse scores 116.1 points per 100 possessions without relying on foul shots because they hardly ever turn the ball over and they hit the glass. In other words, they don't need other teams to make mistakes to put points on the board. And on defense, they rank 341st in the country in one category our model finds surprisingly unimportant -- defensive rebounding -- as the 2-3 zone makes it hard to find a man to box out. But here's how the zone pays off: The Orange rank third in the country in steals, sixth in generating turnovers and second in blocking shots. Along with North Carolina and Kentucky, they're one of the least vulnerable Giants in the field.
So knowing this, does your confidence rise to a new higher level?--it should because this metric has picked more than 20 games in past 5 years where the better seeded team has lost to a worse seeded team (10 seed or higher and did pick Vermont)! Go 'Cuse!!
Interestingly, in the East Bracket, both Vandy and FSU are potential teams to be KILLED by a value of 20% or more. What is important for 'Cuse fans to consider is that Syracuse is one of the three least likely teams to be shot down by a high seed in this tournament (KY and UNC) are the other two.
'Cuse scores very well on these metrics as shown below. Interestingly, the metrics do not place high value on defensive rebounding. So whereas 'Cuse ranks 341 in team rating on defensive rebounding it scores much better on defensive metrics that are more important (3rd in steals, 6th in forcing TOS and 2nd in Block shots). Couple this with offensive efficiency few TOs and scoring more from 2 pt range etc making 'Cuse less vulnerable to teams. We should also be strong from a metric perspective Vs. Vandy and FSU--no worries there (sort to speak). Here is the 'Cuse evaluation vs. Asheville:
No. 16 UNC Asheville (12.2) vs. No. 1 Syracuse (6.8)
Upset chance: 5.2 percent
The Orange, meanwhile, demonstrate why some stats matter more than others when it comes to Giant Killing. For all the talk you'll hear about the importance of free throws at this time of year, Syracuse scores 116.1 points per 100 possessions without relying on foul shots because they hardly ever turn the ball over and they hit the glass. In other words, they don't need other teams to make mistakes to put points on the board. And on defense, they rank 341st in the country in one category our model finds surprisingly unimportant -- defensive rebounding -- as the 2-3 zone makes it hard to find a man to box out. But here's how the zone pays off: The Orange rank third in the country in steals, sixth in generating turnovers and second in blocking shots. Along with North Carolina and Kentucky, they're one of the least vulnerable Giants in the field.
So knowing this, does your confidence rise to a new higher level?--it should because this metric has picked more than 20 games in past 5 years where the better seeded team has lost to a worse seeded team (10 seed or higher and did pick Vermont)! Go 'Cuse!!
