He did it
- Thread starter SWC75
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this board mirrors the otb i was at making my bets.. build up for the derby and then when the triple crown goes down the place was as empty as a weekday in February.
they just give you money tax free to win these things and no one seems to want it
. i like it that way though..
they just give you money tax free to win these things and no one seems to want it
. i like it that way though..
donniesyracuse
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I've been a big horse racing fan my whole life. There are not many things in the world more exciting and satisfying than watching one's horse win.
I am also a vegetarian and animal rights person. Horse racing was my last activity that made me feel like a hypocrite. Finally this year I gave it up and of course there is a triple crown winner.
I am also a vegetarian and animal rights person. Horse racing was my last activity that made me feel like a hypocrite. Finally this year I gave it up and of course there is a triple crown winner.
IthacaBarrel
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Wonder if he goes the to the travers? Haskell? Definitely breeders cup classic before retirement.
IthacaBarrel
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That's too bad. What a day.
SWC75
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You can see the sport from both sides. Could you summarize the objections to the sport and discuss the things that are said in it's defense? Is the the equivalent of -fighting or dog fighting? Do the horses really want to do this? Sure they like to run but are we asking too much of them?
donniesyracuse
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Even if you assume that all the horses are treated like kings (I doubt it, particularly at smaller tracks) is it right for so many horses to die in the name of sport? I have seen different numbers. One was that 1,000 died nationally in 2013. Another number was something like two horses die every 1,000 starts. I apologize that I don't have a chance right now to provide links to official numbers. Until recently, New York State did not even keep a database of horse racing accidents.
SUintheVille
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His stud fee just went way up. I thought given the relatively low number of horses in the Belmont that it would make a win by American Pharoah a little less significant, but after watching that race, he reminded me of Secretariat in how he pulled away down the stretch, even though the margin of victory was less. Wouldn't have mattered how many horses were in the race. In the lead from start to finish again, very impressive.
SWC75
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They just announced on ESPN that, based on their times in the Belmont, Secretariat would have won yesterday's race by 15 lengths.
SUintheVille
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Yeah I'm not saying AP would have beat or competed closely with Secretariat, AP just reminded me of him in how he increased his lead at the end. Secretariat was a tremendous horse, although I don't know the quality of horses he competed with in '73.
IthacaBarrel
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No disputing the injuries and fatalities and hate to see them. Still incredible beautiful athletes and will always love the sport. ( sorry meant to response to Donnie)
SWC75
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I agree that AP is a great horse and enjoyed him finally winning another TC.
It should be noted that the 15 length thing is based on their their times and thus the caliber and amount of opposition is not a factor. In factor, lesser opposition might made it less like a horse will run at his full capacity. You'd expect Affirmed might have set the record because he had to to beat Alydar. But it didn't happen that way.
SWC75
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Here's a good article on it: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Racehorse_injuries
I wondered how much of the fatality rate was due to the nature of the sport and how is due to the way it's run. It appears to be both but the nature of the sport is a strong factor, just like the nature of boxing or auto racing. But those sports involve voluntary participants. Even the spectators injured in an auto crash made the decision to be there knowing that could happen. I suspect that if those sports cost as many lives as horse racing, they would not be allowed to continue. But we are talking about horses, not humans so the cost of the sport doesn't not get anywhere near the publicity.
I still wonder if the sport could be run in such a way as to substantially reduce those numbers. And at the highest level the horses are given far better care and decisions are made with their welfare a much bigger part of the decision making, (because they are big investments and potentially big money makers). Does that make it OK to celebrate and enjoy American Pharoah's achievement? I'm starting to wonder.
SWC75
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I think it's possible that they are also sportsmen who want to win and failed at this point three prior times. If a horse is trying for the triple crown, they will akke plenty of money off of him anyway at stud. besides, Baffert is not the owner. He's the trainer.
http://ftw.usatoday.com/2015/06/secretariat-american-pharoah-side-by-side-race
this is pretty need side by side. pharoah finished just a bit faster but at one point is almost 4 secs behind secretariats pace and would be just ahead of the others horses from the 1973 race
this is pretty need side by side. pharoah finished just a bit faster but at one point is almost 4 secs behind secretariats pace and would be just ahead of the others horses from the 1973 race
SWC75
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That was fun to watch. Here is an update I did of a post I made a couple of years back, including American Pharoah"
I decided to take a look at horse racing’s triple crown. There have been 11 Triple Crown winners: Sir Barton in 1919, Gallant Fox in 1930, Omaha in 1935, War Admiral in 1937, Whirlaway in 1941, Count Fleet in 1943, Assault in 1946, Citation in 1948, Secretariat, (who they have made a movie about- it will be out in October), in 1973, Seattle Slew 1977 and Affirmed in 1978. What if they all had a race? (Seattle Slew twice raced Affirmed. Slew won the first race and finished ahead of Affirmed in the other one, which neither of them won: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seattle_Slew ). Since 11 horses is an odd number, I decided to throw in a 12th- Man O’ War, perhaps the most famous horse of all: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Man_o'_War
Man O’ War was not entered in the Kentucky Derby because the owner didn’t like they way they raced in Kentucky, (for some reason). He likely would have won it- he won 20 of 21 races and the one time he lost the name of the horse who beat him became synonym for the victory of an underdog- “Upset”. Man O’ War easily beat Sir Barton in a match race and was universally regarded as the greatest thoroughbred ever until Secretariat.
So how do we “race” them all at once? First, I took note of the distance on the three triple crown races, reducing them to a single unit, feet. The Kentucky Derby has been run at a mile and a quarter since 1896. That’s 6600 feet. The Preakness was a mile and an eighth, or 5940 feet through 1924. After that it was a mile and 3/16th. That’s 6270 feet. The Belmont was a mile and 3/8, (7260 feet) until 1926, when it became a mile and a half. We need to figure out the rate at which all 12 horses traveled those distances.
Sir Barton ran the Derby in 2:09.80. That’s 129.8 seconds. 6600 feet divided by 129.8 seconds is 50.847457 feet per second. He ran the Preakness in 1:51.6 or 111.60 seconds. Divide that into 5940 feet and you get 53.225806 feet per second. He ran the Belmont in 2:17.40, or 137.40 seconds. Divide that into 7260 feet and you get. 52.838427 feet per second. Average those three rates and you get the combined speed with which Sir Barton ran the Triple Crown. I did that for each horse, using only the Preakness and Belmont for Man O’ War:
Sir Barton…………52.303893 feet per second
Man O’ War……….52.828983 feet per second
Gallant Fox………..51.847443 feet per second
Omaha …………….52.641140 feet per second
War Admiral………53.134216 feet per second
Whirlaway…………53.057653 feet per second
Count Fleet………...53.216116 feet per second
Assault……………..51.962756 feet per second
Citation…………….52.296200 feet per second
Secretariat………….54.882336 feet per second
Seattle Slew………..53.773870 feet per second
Affirmed…………...54.259006 feet per second
American Pharoah…..53.680,023 feet per second
I decided our fantasy race should be over the current Belmont distance, a mile and a half. That’s 7920 feet. At 54.882336 feet per second, Secretariat would run that in 144.31 seconds, (2 minutes 24.31 seconds). At 52.828983 feet per second, how far would Sir Barton have traveled in 144.31 seconds? He’d have traveled 7548 feet, finishing 372 feet behind Secretariat. A “length” is supposed to be about 8 feet, so that’s 47 lengths behind. Here is the final order of finish. I hit the “enter bar” to go to the next line for every length to give a graphic representation of the distances between the horses:
Secretariat 2:24.31
Affirmed 2:25.97 (11 lengths behind)
Seattle Slew 2:27.28 (20 lengths behind)
American Pharoah 2:27.54 (22 lengths behind)
Man O’War 2:29.92 (23 lengths behind)
Count Fleet 2:28.83 (31 lengths behind)
War Admiral 2:29.06 ((33 lengths behind)
Whirlaway 2:29.27 (35 lengths behind)
Omaha 2:30.45 (42 lengths behind)
Sir Barton 2:31.42 (49 lengths behind)
Citation 2:31.44 (50 lengths behind)
Assault 2:32.42 (56 lengths behind)
Gallant Fox 2:32.76 (59 lengths behind)
So, what does this prove? Nothing. It’s just fun to imagine all these great horses in the same race and you have to base your imaginings on something. It’s interesting how dominant Secretariat is. I thought Citation was a lot better than that. His fame rested on the fact that there was no Triple Crown winner for a generation after that.
There is a general, but not absolute trend toward the more recent horse doing the best. Of course track conditions matter and jockeys matter. You could run the actual race, if there was one, multiple times and get multiple results. Some horses are “speed” horses that might do better over a lesser distance. Others are endurance horses that do better over a longer distance. Those things aren’t really accounted for here.
the one thing about Secretariat's race is that he was actually pressed hard at the start and all thru the first half mile was not allowed to relax on the lead and still took off and held up. AP's finish was one of the best , but coming off a relaxed lead all race long really. hard to know without watching the races how well the others ran. the could have been coasting which is how most of the belmonts get run
br801
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A comparison of the the raw final times of Belmont Stakes winners is essentially meaningless, as the relative speed of track surfaces often varies greatly from day to to day (to say nothing of year to year) due to factors such as weather conditions, track conditions and track maintenance practices. The pace of a race, and how a race is contested also has a significant impact on the raw final time of a race. Good speed figures (such as the Beyer Speed Figures published in the Daily Racing Form) normalize for these factors and can be appropriately compared across years, however.
Unfortunately, this kind of analysis is a relatively recent development in racing (from about the late 1970s on), so it is difficult to gauge just how fast some of the earlier Triple Crown winners were. It's even speculation with Secretariat, but people who create speed figures for a living have retroactively computed figures for his races and most are in agreement that his Belmont was probably the most brilliant performance in history in terms of adjusted time. So with Secretariat, anyway, what you see with your eyes was probably as stunning as it appeared.
Unfortunately, this kind of analysis is a relatively recent development in racing (from about the late 1970s on), so it is difficult to gauge just how fast some of the earlier Triple Crown winners were. It's even speculation with Secretariat, but people who create speed figures for a living have retroactively computed figures for his races and most are in agreement that his Belmont was probably the most brilliant performance in history in terms of adjusted time. So with Secretariat, anyway, what you see with your eyes was probably as stunning as it appeared.
