Here is the way I see it

[Marsh01]

So it appears we are looking at around a 10 seed right now (bracket matrix has us at a 10). Looking ahead here is what I think can and will happen.

Obviously if we beat Pitt we are in. I think we all can agree on that. Could be looking at a 10 seed but at this point who cares as long as we get in. Anything past Pitt is complete gravy.

Losing to Pitt IMO would put us in a 50-50 make it or get snubbed situation. The bubble this year is so charmin soft and really the only reason why Syracuse as well as other teams are even in consideration at this point. That is one thing in our favor. If we lose Wednesday then obviously we would need some help. Initially I think bracketologists would still have us in the field but as the week progresses I think that we would fall farther down the ladder especially if some of these other bubble teams win a game or two in their conference tournaments. I hate to even be in that situation and have to root for other teams to lose so I am really hoping (on my knees here) that we somehow win Wednesday so we can avoid all of this nonsense. Losing Wednesday at noon always sucks as you still have Thurs-Sun of teams playing and making an impression where you have to sit and hope you have done enough.

I am going to say that if we lose to Pitt we are looking at playing in Dayton for sure if we even get in. I would certainly prepare for this scenario. I know that if this happens I will be on my hands and knees on Sunday praying.

 

[heresjohnny88]

Spot-on post. Beat Pitt, and I think we're a solid 9, with the potential to slip to 10 at worst if some things don't fall our way. And honestly? 10 seed might be better than a 9.

Lose to Pitt? Ugh. Going to be a brutal weekend. I actually still think we'd get in with a loss to Pitt, as crazy as that sounds. Bubble is SO weak. Marsh is right though...would probably be a play-in game.

 

[orangenirvana]

Obviously if we beat Pitt we are in. I think we all can agree on that.

Not to piss in the cheerios here but I remember us saying the same thing going into the 2007 BET. "Just beat UConn and we are in. We're probably in regardless but that would really clinch it."

Unless SU can beat both Pitt on Wednesday and UNC on Thursday I'll be pooping-a-brick nervous on Sunday.

 

[Marsh01]

Not to piss in the cheerios here but I remember us saying the same thing going into the 2007 BET. "Just beat UConn and we are in. We're probably in regardless but that would really clinch it."

Unless SU can beat both Pitt on Wednesday and UNC on Thursday I'll be pooping-a-brick nervous on Sunday.

Big difference is the bubble is 1000x weaker this season and we have a better resume than we did in 2007. Beating Pitt is all we need to do.

 

[heresjohnny88]

Not to piss in the cheerios here but I remember us saying the same thing going into the 2007 BET. "Just beat UConn and we are in. We're probably in regardless but that would really clinch it."

Unless SU can beat both Pitt on Wednesday and UNC on Thursday I'll be pooping-a-brick nervous on Sunday.

Normally I'd agree with this...but...1) the bubble is SO weak 2) that 07 snub was exactly that. a snub. the exception, not the rule. 3) this team is better 4) a pitt win means they would have beaten a fellow bubble team. in 07, uconn was terrible so that win meant absolutely zero.

 

[NineOneSeven]

Losing to Pitt three times in one season would be an absolute epic way to close the year out.

 

[NineOneSeven]

Any idea what time Wed?

 

[Marsh01]

Any idea what time Wed?

noon

 

[jncuse]

1. I agree with beating Pitt at 100%.

2. I agree that with a loss the best we can hope for Dayton

3. I don't agree that it is 50% / 50% with a loss. It's definetely not close to zero, but I would guess it's somewhere in the 30-40% range. The bubble teams that are in are so close that while I am 100% certain that the committee sees us as in as of Tuesday, we are not sure if our ranking is a few spots lower than the matrix.

We won't be the only team that as in as of now, that loses its first game, or loses it first game against a quality team. So it really depends on how we rank to them after that event, and how many spots safe we are from people pushing up.

I estimate the pusher uppers are going to take 2-4 spots as a group. Then it all comes down to our ranking after we lost to Pitt. At where we are on the matrix it may be close to 50%... but if the committee has us in initially and only a few spots lower, we could be closer to 10%.

Who is going to push up? There may only be a few teams that push up:
Florida. Michigan, are the only teams that may only need quality win to push its way in
Gonzaga may get in because the committee has some affinity to them
Temple will only move up at the expense of an AAC team that is currently in. (So net impact nil)
After that it's a bunch of teams that need 2 quality wins, which maybe 1 achieves
Then the bubble busters. Let's go Monmouth, SD ST, ALR.

Tonight on the bubble watch thread, I will do an analysis assuming that the matrix has our current standing correct. It's the best proxy we have, but it's so sensitive to being 1 or 2 spots too high.

 

[NineOneSeven]

Bummer. At work. Maybe a good thing, actually.

noon

 

[Marsh01]

1. I agree with beating Pitt at 100%.

2. I agree that with a loss the best we can hope for Dayton

3. I don't agree that it is 50% / 50% with a loss. It's definetely not close to zero, but I would guess it's somewhere in the 30% range. The bubble teams that are in are so close that while I am 100% certain that the committee sees us as in as of Tuesday, we are not sure if our ranking is a few spots lower than the matrix.

We won't be the only team that as in as of now, that loses its first game, or loses it first game against a quality team. So it really depends on how we rank to them after that event. Who is going to push up.

There may only be a few teams that push up:
Florida. Michigan, are the only teams that may only need quality win to push its way in
Gonzaga may get in because the committee has some affinity to them
Temple will only move up at the expense of an AAC team that is currently in.
After that it's a bunch of teams that need 2 quality wins.
Then the bubble busters. Let's go Monmouth, SD ST, ALR.

They may only take 3 or 4 more spots as a group. Then it all comes down to our ranking. At where we are on the matrix it may be close to 50%... but if the committee has us in initially and only a few spots lower, we are definetely less than 50%.

Tonight on the bubble watch thread, I will do an analysis assuming that the matrix has our standing correct. It's the best proxy we have, but it's so sensitive to being 1 or 2 spots too high.

Yea the 50-50 comment I made was a sliding scale starting at 50% and slowly going down each day based on results

 

[MSOrange]

Gosh I hope we beat Pitt somehow. I love conference championship week but I hate the stress of having to actually truly care who wins the "who gives a crap" conference.

 

[jncuse]

Yea the 50-50 comment I made was a sliding scale starting at 50% and slowly going down each day based on results

My comment was more in terms of my guess of 2 to 4 teams pushing their way in, and whether the starting point of the matrix is the same as the committee

If we start at 32 in the at large pool (like the matrix) we may be 50%
But if the committee has us at #34 entering the week it may be closer to 10-20%.

Of course we could be #31 as well...

 

[Alsacs]

Not to piss in the cheerios here but I remember us saying the same thing going into the 2007 BET. "Just beat UConn and we are in. We're probably in regardless but that would really clinch it."

Unless SU can beat both Pitt on Wednesday and UNC on Thursday I'll be pooping-a-brick nervous on Sunday.

2007 34 at-large bids
2016 37 at-large bids

I don't think we get snubbed in 2007 if there were 3 extra bids.

 

[Marsh01]

2007 34 at-large bids
2016 37 at-large bids

I don't think we get snubbed in 2007 if there were 3 extra bids.

Throw in SMU and Louisville not getting in and its even more

 

[Alsacs]

I just hate this matchup with Pitt. 1 win and we are in but I would rather play anyone but Virginia over Pitt.
Pitt knows the zone and exploits our weaknesses. Syracuse doesn't adjust we play 2-3, we run the same plays on offense, out-of bounds plays, we basically dare you to beat us at our game and Pitt just out toughs us every game.

We need Coleman and Roberson to win this game on rebounding.

 

[orangecuse]

noon

Syracuse.com has it at 1 p.m. in their next game box.

 

[cuseinseattle]

9am west coast time. Good. I will get this out of the way first thing.

 

[KaiserUEO]

Regarding our predicament and the 8-9 game...it been an Incredible turn of events.

We talked last week how we were LOCKED into the nooner...and then every thing that needed to happen to get us unlocked there...happened.

And we decide to shut the door and throw the key back to the guards. 'No thank you, we like the bubble and noon games'.

Beat fla st and we had the plum 930 start...perfect and fun for all but the crybaby, moronic...'its past my bed time!!' crowd.

This sucks.

 

[BuffOrange]

Big difference is the bubble is 1000x weaker this season and we have a better resume than we did in 2007. Beating Pitt is all we need to do.

Biggest difference is one thing hasn't happened yet and the other was 8yrs ago so the blow has softened [if anyone even cares much at all].
I specifically remember espn running a special 1-2 hour program strictly for the bubble and didn't mention us once even in passing. That is how much of a lock we were considerded. Pretty sure "the bubble is super solid this year" was also not said.

I'd be a little suprised too if 1-1 doesn't get it done but not shocked.

 

[Moontan]

9am west coast time. Good. I will get this out of the way first thing.

So, you're starting with a Bloody Mary and working your way up from there?

 

[We Are Syracuse]

9am west coast time. Good. I will get this out of the way first thing.

Lol that will be the only positive probably. I dont like our chances AT all

 

[We Are Syracuse]

Regarding our predicament and the 8-9 game...it been an Incredible turn of events.

We talked last week how we were LOCKED into the nooner...and then every thing that needed to happen to get us unlocked there...happened.

And we decide to shut the door and throw the key back to the guards. 'No thank you, we like the bubble and noon games'.

Beat fla st and we had the plum 930 start...perfect and fun for all but the crybaby, moronic...'its past my bed time!!' crowd.

This sucks.

Losing that game stings. 9:30 is a BILLION times better than noon. Noon starts are miserable. Nothing beat GMACs noon floater against Cincy. God that was awesome

 

[NineOneSeven]

Losing that game stings. 9:30 is a BILLION times better than noon. Noon starts are miserable. Nothing beat GMACs noon floater against Cincy. God that was awesome

I was a soph in high school in our auditorium at FM for some sort of play/event and had my CD player that could pick up the radio. Sat there and sneakily listened through my headphones. Amazing.

 

[MSOrange]

Losing that game stings. 9:30 is a BILLION times better than noon. Noon starts are miserable. Nothing beat GMACs noon floater against Cincy. God that was awesome

I don't know how to feel about this 11 am start. (I'm in central time) I usually can take the day off when this situation comes up with an afternoon game. But I'm lucky to take Thursday and Friday this week because I'm handling communication for a big system release this weekend. Last time I couldn't take time off to catch us in a tournament was Arinze's quadriceps tear heard around the world so that's not a good sign.