History - SU offense 2004 through 2015

[GoSU96]

Chart showing SU's offense with some key metrics.

Lesson, hiring decisions matter and bad ones can crater a program.

3rd down rate isn't available until 2005, sacks allowed until 2007

Comments on this year:

Shows that Lester has been able to get more production per play with less risk/downside in the pass game while throwing much less per game and generating fewer yards and getting a little bit more in the pass game.

The total yardage numbers and offensive profile would be fine, if the defense was where it has been since 2009, but it isn't and therefore the low overall yardage is a big problem.

It shows promise, but it still not good, needs a great deal of improvement. If they find a way to tighten up the defense this would support the rock fight/get it to the fourth strategy and maybe squeeze out another win or two.

 

[Chip]

I love these (seriously).

2012 is such an outlier. I mean, yeah, GRob is a crater, but all those other years, the best there is in total offense is 78. Crazy...when...you...have...a...Dome...to...sell.

This shows why PPG is misleading. It's more of a great team stat, not necessarily a great indicator as an offense stat. I can only assume that the Scoring Offense being 53 (vs 55 in 2012) is because of the 2 defensive scores, the 1 special teams score, and the 2 OT scores, one that we got to start from the 12.

 

[SWC75]

This year's offense + last year's defense and we are fine. The whole struggle in the 70's and 80's was to get the offense and defense going at the same time. We finally did it in '87 and then recruited well enough to have 15 straight winning seasons. That's what we are trying to do now. It may take another year or two, (as much as people hate to hear that), but we are within reach of it.

 

[NineOneSeven]

This year's offense + last year's defense and we are fine. The whole struggle in the 70's and 80's was to get the offense and defense going at the same time. We finally did it in '87 and then recruited well enough to have 15 straight winning seasons. That's what we are trying to do now. It may take another year or two, (as much as people hate to hear that), but we are within reach of it.

We had fifteen straight winning seasons?

 

[SWC75]

We had fifteen straight winning seasons?

1987-2001

http://www.jhowell.net/cf/scores/Syracuse.htm

 

[Millhouse]

I love these (seriously). 2012 is such an outlier. I mean, yeah, GRob is a crater, but all those other years, the best there is in total offense is 78. Crazy...when...you...have...a...Dome...to...sell. This shows why PPG is misleading. It's more of a great team stat, not necessarily a great indicator as an offense stat. I can only assume that the Scoring Offense being 53 (vs 55 in 2012) is because of the 2 defensive scores, the 1 special teams score, and the 2 OT scores, one that we got to start from the 12.

24 total td. 3 OT, 2 defensive, 1 punt return

A quarter of your tds not coming from your offense in regulation sure seems unusual to me

 

[GoSU96]

I love these (seriously).

2012 is such an outlier. I mean, yeah, GRob is a crater, but all those other years, the best there is in total offense is 78. Crazy...when...you...have...a...Dome...to...sell.

This shows why PPG is misleading. It's more of a great team stat, not necessarily a great indicator as an offense stat. I can only assume that the Scoring Offense being 53 (vs 55 in 2012) is because of the 2 defensive scores, the 1 special teams score, and the 2 OT scores, one that we got to start from the 12.

Yeah, but it also shows that it doesn't have to be. And it shows the importance of coaching.

When Marrone took over they immediately lifted the offense at least out of the non functional disaster it had been. In four years only one metric was ranked below one hundred, which was 3rd down conversions in 2009. They kept building and improving, both the players and the staff, and there was steady improvement year after year until it took off in 2012.

Some of the data this year shows that Lester may get it. The efficiency numbers are up. The total yardage numbers are down in part because he doesn't run enough plays in an attempt to shorten games.

 

[Millhouse]

Yeah, but it also shows that it doesn't have to be. And it shows the importance of coaching.

When Marrone took over they immediately lifted the offense at least out of the non functional disaster it had been. In four years only one metric was ranked below one hundred, which was 3rd down conversions in 2009. They kept building and improving, both the players and the staff, and there was steady improvement year after year until it took off in 2012.

Some of the data this year shows that Lester may get it. The efficiency numbers are up. The total yardage numbers are down in part because he doesn't run enough plays in an attempt to shorten games.

i think the experience with spence and mcdonald show how important play calling is. it's hard to measure but we've seen that coaches really can be terrible at it. i don't like lester's offense and there have been some head scratching play calls, but his play calling is fine. play calling and scheme are separate.

we have so many horrendous offenses that we give guys too much credit for staying out of the hundreds.

 

[Crusty]

Yeah, but it also shows that it doesn't have to be. And it shows the importance of coaching.

When Marrone took over they immediately lifted the offense at least out of the non functional disaster it had been. In four years only one metric was ranked below one hundred, which was 3rd down conversions in 2009. They kept building and improving, both the players and the staff, and there was steady improvement year after year until it took off in 2012.

Some of the data this year shows that Lester may get it. The efficiency numbers are up. The total yardage numbers are down in part because he doesn't run enough plays in an attempt to shorten games.

We don't run enough plays because the defense can't get off the field!

 

[Crusty]

Not to be a jerk about this, but it seems to me that the only stat that matters is scoring offense. Does it really matter how it is done. Score more than 30+ ppg and you will have winning seasons.

 

[Millhouse]

We don't run enough plays because the defense can't get off the field!

104th in 3rd down percentage against FBS teams. It's not all on the defense. Thank goodness for Riley Dixon keeping drives alive or else it would be even worse. We are 7 for 9 on 4th down this year. everyone gets upset about USF but we're way better off for being aggressive, we need to go for it more, either with regular plays or dixon flying around

 

[GoSU96]

i think the experience with spence and mcdonald show how important play calling is. it's hard to measure but we've seen that coaches really can be terrible at it. i don't like lester's offense and there have been some head scratching play calls, but his play calling is fine. play calling and scheme are separate.

we have so many horrendous offenses that we give guys too much credit for staying out of the hundreds.

But when you aren't going to see anybody flip a switch either.

Horrendous is Grob's four years and last year.

Marrone's were at least immediately functional if not highly productive and supported a coherent strategy to build the program.

It looks like Lester is on the same path. I don't know if it's going to happen but it would be nice to see a couple of 380, 400 yd games against some really good defenses.

It's more likely we see 280's and 13 pts, but we can always Cusian.

 

[GoSU96]

We don't run enough plays because the defense can't get off the field!

That's part of it, but not the whole story.

 

[TheCusian]

But when you aren't going to see anybody flip a switch either. Horrendous is Grob's four years and last year. Marrone's were at least immediately functional if not highly productive and supported a coherent strategy to build the program. It looks like Lester is on the same path. I don't know if it's going to happen but it would be nice to see a couple of 380, 400 yd games against some really good defenses. It's more likely we see 280's and 13 pts, but we can always Cusian.

Always wanted to be a verb.

Here's some help in that direction: if we simply play two good halves of offensive football we'd be at 400-500 yds of offense and 42+ points.

Unlikely this weekend as Pitt plays slow and it will probably devolve into caveman style defensive football, but there's hope.

Lester needs to be aggressive all game (in radio interview with Axe he said as much. Also that he's been watching a lot of Baylor!) and Dungey and the rest of the young guys need to be consistent.

 

[GoSU96]

Not to be a jerk about this, but it seems to me that the only stat that matters is scoring offense. Does it really matter how it is done. Score more than 30+ ppg and you will have winning seasons.

What matters is what the team is reliably capable of. Scoring in individual games is a product of that and luck and circumstance in that particular game.

And the fact of the matter is that the offense is only scoring about 24 pts a game in regulation. That's completely in line with the rest of the measurements.

This team isn't VT or Rutgers that can rely on blocks, returns, and defense to score.

 

[Millhouse]

But when you aren't going to see anybody flip a switch either.

Horrendous is Grob's four years and last year.

Marrone's were at least immediately functional if not highly productive and supported a coherent strategy to build the program.

It looks like Lester is on the same path. I don't know if it's going to happen but it would be nice to see a couple of 380, 400 yd games against some really good defenses.

It's more likely we see 280's and 13 pts, but we can always Cusian.

they came as close to flipping a switch in 2012 as we're ever going to see. I don't know if that was a coherent strategy - and I don't care - they were the original mcf***its and it was very good. i get that we had to wait until they were ready to flip the switch

I think Lester is going to need to flip a switch. No reason to think he's not smart enough to do it if he wants to. The type of offense we both like isn't all that difficult for a coach to pick up

I think the rest of this year should matter a lot but i know it won't. he'll get a third year, that will be make or break and i'll keep reminding myself that we'll still have dungey for a year or two with someone else if Lester and Shafer doesn't sh!tcan this offense

dungey has to come down to earth here and there this year, hopefully it's in one of the games where it's hopeless no matter what. when scoring comes back to where yards is, i'll be one of the few you can't say i told you so to

 

[TheCusian]

What matters is what the team is reliably capable of. Scoring in individual games is a product of that and luck and circumstance in that particular game. And the fact of the matter is that the offense is only scoring about 24 pts a game in regulation. That's completely in line with the rest of the measurements. This team isn't VT or Rutgers that can rely on blocks, returns, and defense to score.

Not disagreeing - but as bad as our defense has looked - we are still 3rd in the conference in TO margin. 12 takeaways is good for 5th.

And it's not like we got a bunch in one game. It's been pretty steady.

 

[Crusty]

What matters is what the team is reliably capable of. Scoring in individual games is a product of that and luck and circumstance in that particular game.

And the fact of the matter is that the offense is only scoring about 24 pts a game in regulation. That's completely in line with the rest of the measurements.

This team isn't VT or Rutgers that can rely on blocks, returns, and defense to score.

That doesn't really address my point. Scoring offense is all that matters. If we score 30+ we will have winning seasons. If we score 35+ we will be at or near the top 25 depending on our defense. Everything else is just noise.

 

[Millhouse]

[

But when you aren't going to see anybody flip a switch either.

Horrendous is Grob's four years and last year.

Marrone's were at least immediately functional if not highly productive and supported a coherent strategy to build the program.

It looks like Lester is on the same path. I don't know if it's going to happen but it would be nice to see a couple of 380, 400 yd games against some really good defenses.

It's more likely we see 280's and 13 pts, but we can always Cusian.

ps speaking of flipping a switch, I don't need to tell you to go look at tulsa's year to year numbers - wow

 

[GoSU96]

they came as close to flipping a switch in 2012 as we're ever going to see. I don't know if that was a coherent strategy - and I don't care - they were the original mcf***its and it was very good. i get that we had to wait until they were ready to flip the switch

I think Lester is going to need to flip a switch. No reason to think he's not smart enough to do it if he wants to. The type of offense we both like isn't all that difficult for a coach to pick up

I think the rest of this year should matter a lot but i know it won't. he'll get a third year, that will be make or break and i'll keep reminding myself that we'll still have dungey for a year or two with someone else if Lester and Shafer doesn't sh!tcan this offense

dungey has to come down to earth here and there this year, hopefully it's in one of the games where it's hopeless no matter what. when scoring comes back to where yards is, i'll be one of the few you can't say i told you so to

Here's what I mean about not being able to flip a switch. When a program is in as bad a shape as it was when the Grobian error was over it doesn't happen overnight. Here are four very comparable programs after disastrous periods showing the total wins and 4 year total offense average prior to the rebuild.

It takes time. And it helps to have a Heisman winner or runner up at QB.

 

[GoSU96]

[

ps speaking of flipping a switch, I don't need to tell you to go look at tulsa's year to year numbers - wow

He wasn't starting with nothing, they were 56th last year.

Defense is a big problem still.