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Message: [QUOTE="Consigliere, post: 3999686, member: 559"] It was all about probabilities. Four potential outcomes: 1. Decline and let the WF kicker try a 51 yard FG. Kid hasn't missed a kick all year, clearly has the leg strength and is kicking in perfect conditions. Worst case they get the 3, best case he misses and 0 2. Accept the penalty and force an incompletion or sack - Best/worst case - they get 0 3. Accept the penalty and give up a 10-15 yard completion - same as #1 4. Accept the penalty and give up a first down on 3rd and 23. Worst case they get 7, best we hold them to 3. I'd argue the lowest probability was with option 4 and if we had shown even a token bit of pressure we would have stopped the play. Highest probability was option 2 or 3. Highest reward was with option #2 and that is obviously what drove the decision. [/QUOTE]