Honest chance of winning

[upperdeck]

If you read the Clemson forum the chances of them losing is somewhere between zero and not possible. If you read this board i think we are being more realistic , we can win, could win, hope to win. but what chance do we have.. I dont think its 10% , I'm hoping its 5%

For all the Clemson fans who are so hyped by the explosive offense they overlook what WV had last year. I think you could argue that Austin/Smith/Bailey would rank equal to what Clemson has.

I think where Clemson has the edge on WV is speed on DE and the running of Boyd.

The WV team that destroyed Clemson in 2011 we trounced
the UL team that beat FL in 2012 we trounced.

They overlook some fairly recent examples of what can happen

I think we have a 5% chance of winning
20% chance of a one score loss
35% we lose by 10-20
40% we lose by 20+

 

[690West]

If you read the Clemson forum the chances of them losing is somewhere between zero and not possible. If you read this board i think we are being more realistic , we can win, could win, hope to win. but what chance do we have.. I dont think its 10% , I'm hoping its 5%

For all the Clemson fans who are so hyped by the explosive offense they overlook what WV had last year. I think you could argue that Austin/Smith/Bailey would rank equal to what Clemson has.

I think where Clemson has the edge on WV is speed on DE and the running of Boyd.

The WV team that destroyed Clemson in 2011 we trounced
the UL team that beat FL in 2012 we trounced.

They overlook some fairly recent examples of what can happen

I think we have a 5% chance of winning
20% chance of a one score loss
35% we lose by 10-20
40% we lose by 20+

Way off from a Vegas and Sagarin standpoint. They have us as 17% to win. You have us not winning once in 10 games IN THE DOME.

 

[SteveC]

My personal opinion is:

15% Chance to win.
15% Chance to lose by one score
45% Chance to lose by 10-20
25% chance to lose by more than 20.

 

[upperdeck]

do you feel we win 20% of the time in the Dome?

 

[IthacaMatt]

do you feel we win 20% of the time in the Dome?

Actually even in the "good" years under Marrone, we've been pretty poor at home, but for the occasional big upset.

That's part of the reason the crowds have been a bit slow to come back.

I think Saturday is going to be a whole different story. People forget, but we almost took down Florida State in 2004, too. Trailing 18-14, and if we hadn't fumbled late down near the goal line, we could have taken the lead and probably pulled off the upset.

People used to say that the fans should come out no matter who we play. That may be so, but it sure is a hell of a lot more fun to play "name" programs, isn't it? This league is a great fit for us and is going to do wonders for our home attendance over time. The quality of the opponents is going to help bring fans back to the Dome.

 

[690West]

do you feel we win 20% of the time in the Dome?

I think if we play this exact Clemson game tomorrow ten times in the dome we win 1.5

 

[cuseguy]

Actually even in the "good" years under Marrone, we've been pretty poor at home, but for the occasional big upset.

That's part of the reason the crowds have been a bit slow to come back.

I think Saturday is going to be a whole different story. People forget, but we almost took down Florida State in 2004, too. Trailing 18-14, and if we hadn't fumbled late down near the goal line, we could have taken the lead and probably pulled off the upset.

People used to say that the fans should come out no matter who we play. That may be so, but it sure is a hell of a lot more fun to play "name" programs, isn't it? This league is a great fit for us and is going to do wonders for our home attendance over time. The quality of the opponents is going to help bring fans back to the Dome.

Clemson, FSU and the Ville come every other year but not nearly enough visits from Miami and VaTech.

 

[Chip]

Actually even in the "good" years under Marrone, we've been pretty poor at home, but for the occasional big upset.

That's part of the reason the crowds have been a bit slow to come back.

I think Saturday is going to be a whole different story. People forget, but we almost took down Florida State in 2004, too. Trailing 18-14, and if we hadn't fumbled late down near the goal line, we could have taken the lead and probably pulled off the upset.

People used to say that the fans should come out no matter who we play. That may be so, but it sure is a hell of a lot more fun to play "name" programs, isn't it? This league is a great fit for us and is going to do wonders for our home attendance over time. The quality of the opponents is going to help bring fans back to the Dome.

2010 was the weirdest year ever. Couldn't win at home, couldn't lose on the road.

2012 started to turn our home results, and we haven't looked back yet. I see no reason to do so this weekend.

In that 2004 FSU game, I think we were actually going to score to go up 17-3 just before the half when the FSU player who was on the ground reached up and punched the ball out of Reyes hands inside the 5. Sigh... We also missed 2 FGs in that 4 point loss. Double sigh.

 

[ottodaorange]

The biggest question in my mind, before the season, was QB. I am very comfortable with what I've seen from Terrel... the kid can play and he's a gamer.

The rest of the team can play as well. I think they have learned the defense now, and we can probably play with anyone at this point.

It's real important to get to Boyd, or at least limit him to his feet or his arm. A couple of sacks would help. If we can do that and play ball control, i.e. establish the running game, we got a shot at winning this game.

The dome can be worth at least a score when it is the loud house. It looks like it could be the best crowd in many years on Saturday. Off the top of my head, I remember the Nebraska game when they were #1, Florida when they were top 5, Penn St. when they were... well, Penn St. We've won some big games over the years and may be due for another soon.

I like our chances and I'll say 35%

 

[Doctor44]

I never really like the arguments for odds on a game, but maybe it's a better analogy than i think it is. I like to think that it comes down to getting a team motivated and having players execute. But it big games, it really seems to the bounce of the ball. Maybe a player has a headache, loses focus on a punt, and muffs it. Maybe a ball takes a weird bounce on a punt and goes off someone's leg. Maybe a QB in the midst of of being stressed makes a bonehead play and throws a bad interception he wouldn't do 99 times out of 100. So I guess there's a lot that comes down to odds.

When you take team speed and strength, Clemson has a starting advantage. Syracuse has to take advantage of all the good bounces they get and not squander those chances. Clemson is better, Syracuse needs the "dice" to roll in our favor a little bit to come out on top.

 

[Opus]

Let's give Boyd a case of the 'Geno's'. Smith didn't want any part of us in the Dome, and I think he had that in the back of his mind in the Pinstripe Bowl. Thinking this might be a game for Broyld to break out. Clemson is fast but Ashton's got the moves to make them miss. LGO!

 

[sufandu]

Clemson, FSU and the Ville come every other year but not nearly enough visits from Miami and VaTech.

Wish we saw more of VaTech, only because I hate them so much.