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[QUOTE="IthacaMatt, post: 4872857, member: 405"]
I see progress.  I said after the Gonzaga loss that we could win between 4 and 6 of the next 8 games, which would set the tone for the rest of the season.

Since then, we're 2 and 1; crushed Chaminade, crushed LSU, crushed by UVa.
UVa always beats us, so that shouldn't have been a big surprise.

We need to bounce back and beat Cornell, and then Georgetown on the road.  Georgetown is not very good.

After the way Colgate had their way with us for 2/3 of our game, I can't imagine them taking a 7-1 Cornell team lightly.

That should hopefully leave us at 7-3.  If it's not, we're in some trouble.

After that, Oregon at a neutral site is probably a loss right now. They beat Michigan today, won at Georgia, but did lose to 23 Alabama and Santa Clara.  Could be a close game, but I would favor them.

That would leave us 7-4, if we don't trip up against Cornell or Georgetown.  If we beat Oregon, which is possible but not super-likely, we could be 8-3.

Then, they should beat Niagara, and we have Pitt at home. Pitt beat Oregon State, but lost to Florida and Missouri.  The rest of the teams they beat were punching bags.

So, let's say we avoid the upset vs. Cornell, beat Georgetown on the road, lose to Oregon, and beat Niagara.  That's 8-4 going into Pitt at home, and Duke next up at Cameron.

Even if things go well, that would be 9-5, then UNC, at PItt, at Miami.  We could quickly find ourselves 9-8 or 10-7.  As I go through the rest of the schedule, which is reasonably kind this year, the best I really see for us is about 18-12. (Chaminade doesn't count for the NCAA, right?)

That's probably an NIT team.  And unfortunately, if we lose to Cornell or Georgetown, this could spiral into a year where .500 would seem a survival kind of season, and big roster changes in the off-season.
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