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[QUOTE="jncuse, post: 1688886, member: 1969"]
I have never noted so much lack of consensus on the bubble.   But I thought to myself it could simply be a case of forgetting the past... i.e. the bubble is weak every year now!.

So I decided to refer to the bracket matrix to see the distribution from the last 6 in, to the First 4 Out, to see if this was accurate.   [B]And this year by far is the most chaotic in the last 6 years.  And I believe that is a positive for us.[/B]

I only went back 5 years to 2011.    Here are the numbers (% equals how many people thought you were in before Selection Show):

[ATTACH=full]57584[/ATTACH]
Note -  Teams in Yellow were teams that made (or missed) the tournament that were not in line with consensus.
[LIST]
[*]Look at the First 4 out, particular the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th line.     In prior years, not many votes go their way.   It's a huge difference.  So much unknown this year.  The closest we come to 2016 is 2011, when the 4th last team out had 12%.   In the most "chaotic" year in the last 5 years, 3 teams that were out by consensus actually made it in.    That's good new for us. 
[*]Look at the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th last in.  Compare their %'s to prior years.    These teams are much more fragile in terms of their hold on a spot.
[*]This year there are four teams "in" between 53% and 71%.   Only 3 teams in the last 5 years were in that range and in.  2 of the 3 missed the tourney.
[/LIST]
Only 2 times in the last 5 years has a team been in the 30% range like we are this year.    1 of 2 made the tournament

Clearly there is more chaos this year.   If you see a lot of people with us out over the next few hours, we can still keep optimistic.
[/QUOTE]

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