SWC75
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I made a previous post in which I looked at the teams in the Elite 8 and “how they got here”. The system I devised was to add up the point differentials in the games and then add up the seeds of the opposition and divide the cumulative point differentials by the cumulative seedings. For example Syracuse had now made the Final Four by beating a 7th seed by 19, a 15th seed by 25, an 11th seed by 3 and a #1 seed by 6. That’s a cumulative point differential of 53 and a cumulative seed of 34, a ratio of 1.56. How does that compare to the other Final Four teams and to the Final Four teams over the years?
I looked at all the tournaments since the field went to 64 teams in 1985. I figured out the above ratio for all the Final Four teams and then re-figured the number for the eventual champion so we could determine which national champions had the most impressive runs to the title.
1985 Georgetown 2.00, St. John’s 1.30, Villanova 1.24, Memphis 0.50 Champion: Villanova 1.50
1986 Kansas 1.81, Louisville 1.73, Duke 1.47, LSU 1.21 Champion: Louisville 1.58
1987 Providence 2.18, UNLV 1.56, Indiana 1.49, Syracuse 1.06 Champion: Indiana 1.50
1988 Arizona 3.45, Oklahoma 2.20, Duke 1.24, Kansas 1.17 Champion: Kansas 1.36
1989 Seton Hall 1.90, Michigan 1.75, Duke 1.56, Illinois 1.13 Champion: Michigan 1.64
1990 Duke 1.75, UNLV 1.55, Georgia Tech 0.88, Arkansas 0.74 Champion: UNLV 2.07
1991 UNLV 2.32, Kansas 2.04, Duke 2.03, North Carolina 1.66 Champion: Duke 2.05
1992 Indiana 2.90, Cincinnati 2.52, Duke 1.68, Michigan 0.86 Champion: Duke 1.92
1993 Kentucky 3.88, North Carolina 2.60, Kansas 2.03, Michigan 1.05 Champion: North Carolina 2.85
1994 Arizona 2.73, Arkansas 1.80, Duke 1.45, Florida 0.86 Champion: Arkansas 2.03
1995 Oklahoma 2.71, UCLA 2.00, North Carolina 1.90, Arkansas 0.47 Champion: UCLA 2.32
1996 Kentucky 3.65 Massachusetts 2.23, Mississippi State 1.57, Syracuse 1.40 Champion: Kentucky 3.58
1997 Minnesota 2.10, Kentucky 1.85, North Carolina 1.50, Arizona 0.53 Champion: Arizona 0.84
1998 North Carolina 2.40, Kentucky 2.19, Utah 1.65, Stanford 1.09 Champion: Kentucky 2.11
1999 Duke 2.79, Ohio State 1.93, Connecticut 1.55, Michigan State 1.12 Champion: Connecticut 1.57
2000 Michigan State 2.23, Florida 1.95, Wisconsin 1.70, North Carolina 1.43 Champion: Michigan State 2.14
2001 Arizona 2.14, Duke 1.84, Michigan State 1.67, Maryland 1.28 Champion: Duke 2.08
2002 Maryland 2.10, Kansas 1.87, Oklahoma 1.30, Indiana 1.14 Champion: Maryland 2.33
2003 Kansas 1.45, Marquette 1.30, Syracuse 1.29, Texas 1.19 Champion: Syracuse 1.59
2004 Duke 2.47, Connecticut 1.94, Oklahoma State 1.92, Georgia Tech 0.62 Champion: Connecticut 2.00
2005 Louisville 2.00, North Carolina 1.75, Michigan State 1.25, Illinois 0.98 Champion: North Carolina 2.00
2006 Florida 1.97, UCLA 1.52, George Mason 1.47, LSU 1.25 Champion: Florida 2.09
2007 Florida 2.00, UCLA 1.90, Georgetown 1.55, Ohio State 1.41 Champion: Florida 2.42
2008 North Carolina 3.16, Memphis 2.03, UCLA 1.80, Kansas 1.33 Champion: Kansas 1.79
2009 Connecticut 3.37, North Carolina 3.33, Villanova 2.52, Michigan State 1.17 Champion: North Carolina 3.46
2010 Duke 2.06, West Virginia 1.51, Butler 1.11, Michigan State 0.42 Champion: Duke 2.29
2011 VCU 2.35, Connecticut 1.81, Kentucky 1.05, Butler 0.87 Champion: Connecticut 1.59
2012 Kentucky 1.77, Ohio State 1.66, Louisville 1.04, Kansas 0.92 Champion: Kentucky 1.92
2013 Syracuse 2.76, Louisville 2.29, Wichita State 1.75, Michigan 1..59 Champion: Louisville 1.90
2014 Wisconsin 2.28, Connecticut 1.63, Florida 1.23, Kentucky 1.06 Champion: Connecticut 1.68
2015 Kentucky 2.41, Duke 2.19, Michigan State 1.21, Wisconsin 1.17 Champion: Duke 2.45
2016 Villanova 2.96, North Carolina 1.78, Syracuse 1.56, Oklahoma 1.52
Syracuse’s Final Four teams: 2013 2.76, 2016 1.56, 1996 1.40, 2003 1.29, 1987 1.06
That’s close to the reverse order of how I’d rank those teams. But if 1987 and 2003 “deserved to be there”, 2016 does, too.
There have been 128 Final four teams in these years and 51 one of them had less impressive runs to the Final Four than the 2016 Syracuse team.
In the 31 previous 64 team tournaments, the eventual winner has bene the most impressive team getting to the Final Four 9 times. It’s been the second most impressive team 13 times. It’s been the third most impressive team 6 times and the least impressive team 3 times. We are the third most impressive team this year, so by that measure we have a 19% chance of winning this. (Vegas had us 10-1). But the point is: being the most impressive team getting to the Final Four doesn’t win you the national championship. You have to hit the reset button and recommit to your goal. Those other wins won’t help you.
Let’s list the national champions in rank order:
3.58 Kentucky ‘96
3.46 North Carolina ‘09
2.85 North Carolina ‘93
2.45 Duke ‘15
2.42 Florida ‘07
2.33 Maryland ‘02
2.32 UCLA ‘95
2.29 Duke ‘10
2.14 Michigan State ‘00
2.11 Kentucky ‘98
2.09 Florida ‘06
2.08 Duke ‘01
2.07 UNLV ‘90
2.05 Duke ‘91
2.03 Arkansas ‘94
2.00 Connecticut ’04 and North Carolina ‘05
1.92 Duke ’92 and Kentucky ‘12
1.90 Louisville ‘13
1.79 Kansas ‘08
1.68 Connecticut ‘14
1.64 Michigan ‘89
1.59 Syracuse ’03 and Connecticut ‘11
1.58 Louisville ‘86
1.57 Connecticut ‘99
1.50 Villanova ’85 and Indiana ’87
1.36 Kansas ‘87
0.84 Arizona ‘97
But they were all champions.
I looked at all the tournaments since the field went to 64 teams in 1985. I figured out the above ratio for all the Final Four teams and then re-figured the number for the eventual champion so we could determine which national champions had the most impressive runs to the title.
1985 Georgetown 2.00, St. John’s 1.30, Villanova 1.24, Memphis 0.50 Champion: Villanova 1.50
1986 Kansas 1.81, Louisville 1.73, Duke 1.47, LSU 1.21 Champion: Louisville 1.58
1987 Providence 2.18, UNLV 1.56, Indiana 1.49, Syracuse 1.06 Champion: Indiana 1.50
1988 Arizona 3.45, Oklahoma 2.20, Duke 1.24, Kansas 1.17 Champion: Kansas 1.36
1989 Seton Hall 1.90, Michigan 1.75, Duke 1.56, Illinois 1.13 Champion: Michigan 1.64
1990 Duke 1.75, UNLV 1.55, Georgia Tech 0.88, Arkansas 0.74 Champion: UNLV 2.07
1991 UNLV 2.32, Kansas 2.04, Duke 2.03, North Carolina 1.66 Champion: Duke 2.05
1992 Indiana 2.90, Cincinnati 2.52, Duke 1.68, Michigan 0.86 Champion: Duke 1.92
1993 Kentucky 3.88, North Carolina 2.60, Kansas 2.03, Michigan 1.05 Champion: North Carolina 2.85
1994 Arizona 2.73, Arkansas 1.80, Duke 1.45, Florida 0.86 Champion: Arkansas 2.03
1995 Oklahoma 2.71, UCLA 2.00, North Carolina 1.90, Arkansas 0.47 Champion: UCLA 2.32
1996 Kentucky 3.65 Massachusetts 2.23, Mississippi State 1.57, Syracuse 1.40 Champion: Kentucky 3.58
1997 Minnesota 2.10, Kentucky 1.85, North Carolina 1.50, Arizona 0.53 Champion: Arizona 0.84
1998 North Carolina 2.40, Kentucky 2.19, Utah 1.65, Stanford 1.09 Champion: Kentucky 2.11
1999 Duke 2.79, Ohio State 1.93, Connecticut 1.55, Michigan State 1.12 Champion: Connecticut 1.57
2000 Michigan State 2.23, Florida 1.95, Wisconsin 1.70, North Carolina 1.43 Champion: Michigan State 2.14
2001 Arizona 2.14, Duke 1.84, Michigan State 1.67, Maryland 1.28 Champion: Duke 2.08
2002 Maryland 2.10, Kansas 1.87, Oklahoma 1.30, Indiana 1.14 Champion: Maryland 2.33
2003 Kansas 1.45, Marquette 1.30, Syracuse 1.29, Texas 1.19 Champion: Syracuse 1.59
2004 Duke 2.47, Connecticut 1.94, Oklahoma State 1.92, Georgia Tech 0.62 Champion: Connecticut 2.00
2005 Louisville 2.00, North Carolina 1.75, Michigan State 1.25, Illinois 0.98 Champion: North Carolina 2.00
2006 Florida 1.97, UCLA 1.52, George Mason 1.47, LSU 1.25 Champion: Florida 2.09
2007 Florida 2.00, UCLA 1.90, Georgetown 1.55, Ohio State 1.41 Champion: Florida 2.42
2008 North Carolina 3.16, Memphis 2.03, UCLA 1.80, Kansas 1.33 Champion: Kansas 1.79
2009 Connecticut 3.37, North Carolina 3.33, Villanova 2.52, Michigan State 1.17 Champion: North Carolina 3.46
2010 Duke 2.06, West Virginia 1.51, Butler 1.11, Michigan State 0.42 Champion: Duke 2.29
2011 VCU 2.35, Connecticut 1.81, Kentucky 1.05, Butler 0.87 Champion: Connecticut 1.59
2012 Kentucky 1.77, Ohio State 1.66, Louisville 1.04, Kansas 0.92 Champion: Kentucky 1.92
2013 Syracuse 2.76, Louisville 2.29, Wichita State 1.75, Michigan 1..59 Champion: Louisville 1.90
2014 Wisconsin 2.28, Connecticut 1.63, Florida 1.23, Kentucky 1.06 Champion: Connecticut 1.68
2015 Kentucky 2.41, Duke 2.19, Michigan State 1.21, Wisconsin 1.17 Champion: Duke 2.45
2016 Villanova 2.96, North Carolina 1.78, Syracuse 1.56, Oklahoma 1.52
Syracuse’s Final Four teams: 2013 2.76, 2016 1.56, 1996 1.40, 2003 1.29, 1987 1.06
That’s close to the reverse order of how I’d rank those teams. But if 1987 and 2003 “deserved to be there”, 2016 does, too.
There have been 128 Final four teams in these years and 51 one of them had less impressive runs to the Final Four than the 2016 Syracuse team.
In the 31 previous 64 team tournaments, the eventual winner has bene the most impressive team getting to the Final Four 9 times. It’s been the second most impressive team 13 times. It’s been the third most impressive team 6 times and the least impressive team 3 times. We are the third most impressive team this year, so by that measure we have a 19% chance of winning this. (Vegas had us 10-1). But the point is: being the most impressive team getting to the Final Four doesn’t win you the national championship. You have to hit the reset button and recommit to your goal. Those other wins won’t help you.
Let’s list the national champions in rank order:
3.58 Kentucky ‘96
3.46 North Carolina ‘09
2.85 North Carolina ‘93
2.45 Duke ‘15
2.42 Florida ‘07
2.33 Maryland ‘02
2.32 UCLA ‘95
2.29 Duke ‘10
2.14 Michigan State ‘00
2.11 Kentucky ‘98
2.09 Florida ‘06
2.08 Duke ‘01
2.07 UNLV ‘90
2.05 Duke ‘91
2.03 Arkansas ‘94
2.00 Connecticut ’04 and North Carolina ‘05
1.92 Duke ’92 and Kentucky ‘12
1.90 Louisville ‘13
1.79 Kansas ‘08
1.68 Connecticut ‘14
1.64 Michigan ‘89
1.59 Syracuse ’03 and Connecticut ‘11
1.58 Louisville ‘86
1.57 Connecticut ‘99
1.50 Villanova ’85 and Indiana ’87
1.36 Kansas ‘87
0.84 Arizona ‘97
But they were all champions.