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[QUOTE="jncuse, post: 1665456, member: 1969"]
My assessment has nothing to do with conference record logic.

Even though I constantly repeat 9-9 as the target, it has never been due to the optics about being .500 in the ACC.    That is totally irrelevant.     I really don't care about any team's conference record in any resume.   I have been repeating 9-9 because that was the projected number of wins that gets our RPI down to an acceptable number ( mid 50's to low 60's)  for our full resume to get looked at.   If we got 8 wins our RPI would be in the 70's.

I believe RPI is a "Look longer at me " number.  If you get in the 50's (low 60's) everything will be looked at,  and we have some good things on our resume (Namely top 50 wins)    Once your RPI is in the 70's less benefit of the doubt may be given (they look for the hole).  That is my opinion anyway.

[B]Ohio St --[/B]

Not a great chance chance if they go 1-2 the next 3 games.   They are 18-10.     If they go 1-2, they project to have an RPI in the low 70's as per the table below.    That is a number where your negatives may become more important than the positives (and they have one major negative that I am getting to -- and it is a major one).

Even with one win against an elite team, they end up with either a 3-9 or a 4-9 record vs top 50 schools (depending where Michigan ends up).   That does not kill you vs other bubble schools - its not great but its respectable..

But this does kill you.   Of Ohio St's 18 current wins, [B]ONLY THREE are against top 100 teams.   [/B]15 of 18 wins against sub 100 RPI teams.  That is why some AAC teams got punished a few years back.

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And it's not just a case of well they have beaten who they played.   They haven't.  They have 3 bad losses that can't be ignored.  2 were at home, and one was neutral

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Now if they can get to 20-11, RPI around 60, 5 top 50 wins.    Everything gets a whole lot brighter,   I think they key for them is getting 2 more quality wins somehow.
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